The NL Division Series' both went 5 with favored Montreal squeezing pat the Braves, and San Francisco taking the Mets in perhaps a mild upset.
Montreal over Atlanta, 3-2: The teams split the first two, with Atlanta taking Game 1 in 10 on a Jude Snow sac fly and Montreal countering 7-1 in Game 2 behind 8 innings of J.P. Taveras 4-hit ball.
In the pivotal Game 3, the Expos got 2-run homers from Miguel Pena and Bernard Springer, and Diego Ibarra held the Braves to 4 hits over 7 for a 4-2 win and match point. Then Atlanta snapped back behind Matt Wilkerson to take Game 4, 3-1.
In the deciding game, Atlanta opened with a run in the first, but Montreal jumped ahead on another Springer 2-run bomb. Leading 3-2 with 2 out in the 4th, the Expos started the winning rally. Marte doubled and scored on Springer's single. Consecutive doubles by Freeman and Jose plated 2 more, and that was about it. Atlanta would get just one more, and Montreal took Game 5, 6-3. The Expos get their first trip to the NLCS since Season 6 (also against the Giants).
San Francisco over New York, 3-2: Things started well for the Giants, as the beat Walt Hernandez 3-1 in the opener. Then they dug a hole by dropping the next 2 - strong outings by the Mets' Cedeno and Spooneybarger.
Game 4 started with the Mets grabbing the advantage, thanks to a 1st-inning, Hiram Abbott 3-run homer. The Giants scrapped back to tie it 4-4 in the 7th, then in the 8th Phil Chang doubled home pinch-runner Matt McBride for the game-winner.
Game 5 was a pitchers' duel featuring the Mets' Cedeno and the Giants' Max Ferrer. The Giants went ahead 2-1 in the 7th on Jesus Figureoa's bloop single, and Schafer and Manning held the Mets scoreless over the last 2. San Francisco had the win and its 2nd trip to the NLCS.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
AL Division Championship Recaps
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Yankees over Tigers, 3-1: The Yankee pitching staff held Detroit to a .194 batting average and 8 runs, as New York cruised into the LCS for the 4th year in the last 5.
Game 1 was the only close game and the best chance Detroit had to get into the series. With ace Carson Graves on the hill, the Tigers led 1-0 in the 4th. But the Yanks got (all with 2 out) a single, 3 walks and a single to score 3. Detroit got one back in the 5th on a Bing Miles solo homer, but Rivera and Jacobsen went a perfect 12-up, 12-down the rest of the way.
After a New York blowout win in Game 2, the Tigers held off elimination behind a Diaz/Simmons/Yang 5-hit shutout. But the Yanks started fast in Game 4 (6-run 2nd, highlighted by a Jefferson slam) and held the Tiger bats to 6 hits and 2 runs for a 9-2 series clincher.
Rays over Rangers, 3-1: It was the Santos Lorenzo show, as the 21 year-old Cuban fired 2 complete-game shutouts.
Following the first Lorenzo gem in Game 1, Game 2 turned into the crucial contest in the series. Trailing 4-1 in the 7th, the Rangers chased Rays starter Blaine Lowry on a Brett Ross 2-run single, and closed the gap to 2 again on a Fonville solo in the 8th. Rays closer Houston Webb finally settled matters with a 1-2-3 ninth, and Tampa Bay took a commanding 2-game lead.
Texas came back with a 5-4 win in Game 3, as Sherry Pierre and 2 relievers worked around 15 hits. But Lorenzo and the Rays were dominant in Game 4, 7-0, and Tampa Bay earned its first trip to the LCS since Season 2.
Yankees over Tigers, 3-1: The Yankee pitching staff held Detroit to a .194 batting average and 8 runs, as New York cruised into the LCS for the 4th year in the last 5.
Game 1 was the only close game and the best chance Detroit had to get into the series. With ace Carson Graves on the hill, the Tigers led 1-0 in the 4th. But the Yanks got (all with 2 out) a single, 3 walks and a single to score 3. Detroit got one back in the 5th on a Bing Miles solo homer, but Rivera and Jacobsen went a perfect 12-up, 12-down the rest of the way.
After a New York blowout win in Game 2, the Tigers held off elimination behind a Diaz/Simmons/Yang 5-hit shutout. But the Yanks started fast in Game 4 (6-run 2nd, highlighted by a Jefferson slam) and held the Tiger bats to 6 hits and 2 runs for a 9-2 series clincher.
Rays over Rangers, 3-1: It was the Santos Lorenzo show, as the 21 year-old Cuban fired 2 complete-game shutouts.
Following the first Lorenzo gem in Game 1, Game 2 turned into the crucial contest in the series. Trailing 4-1 in the 7th, the Rangers chased Rays starter Blaine Lowry on a Brett Ross 2-run single, and closed the gap to 2 again on a Fonville solo in the 8th. Rays closer Houston Webb finally settled matters with a 1-2-3 ninth, and Tampa Bay took a commanding 2-game lead.
Texas came back with a 5-4 win in Game 3, as Sherry Pierre and 2 relievers worked around 15 hits. But Lorenzo and the Rays were dominant in Game 4, 7-0, and Tampa Bay earned its first trip to the LCS since Season 2.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Division Play-In Round Recaps
Nothing you could call an upset in the Division Round, although the upstart White Sox pressed Detroit and had a chance in Game 5:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
(3) Detroit vs (6) Chicago: Defense, or lack of it, was the name of the game for Chicago, as the Sox allowed 11 unearned runs in Game 3 and Game 5 losses.
The teams split in Detroit, with starting pitchers - Carson Graves for Detroit in Game 1, and Randall Pearson for Chicago in Game 2 - dominating the action. The Tigers got 4 unearned runs to win Game 3, but Chicago bounced back to beat Graves in Game 4.
Game 5 started out smelling like an upset, with Chicago taking a 5-1 lead through 3. But 4 errors led to 7 unearned Detroit runs, and the Tigers cruised 10-5 in the decisive game.
Detroit now moves on the face the #2 Yankees; Chicago celebrates a fine season by a very young team, and sends a number of said youngsters to Winter Ball for extra fielding practice.
(4) Oakland vs. (5) Texas: The Rangers' pitching was just too much for the A's, allowing just 8 runs in the series.
Still, the A's had a chance in Game 4 to tie the series. With the game tied at 2 after 8, Oakland's Tony Rivera took one off the leg and stole second with 1 out. He got to third on a flyball to CF, but Texas reliever Ajax Patel got Douglas Cummings to ground to short, ending the threat. Then in the 10th, the Rangers got a single, a HBP and 2 walks to plate the winner.
Texas moves on to division rival Tampa Bay; Oakland heads home but looks forward to the promotion of another serious rookie crop in Season 10.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Washington, D.C.: The first 2 games were the crucial ones in this series, as the Braves took 2 squeakers for what turned out to be an insurnountable lead.
Freddie Long's single decide Game 1 in the bottom of the 10th. Game 2 saw the Braves rally from 2 down with a Hutton solo shot in the 8th and an Eric Roosevelt 2-run single in the 9th to take a 2-0 lead. D.C. broke out for 10 runs in Game 3 (HR's from Shuey and Jackson) to get back into the series, but Alejandro Vazquez tossed a complete game for Atlanta in Game 4; Roosevelt knocked in 3 for a 6-1 win and a trip to the second round.
The Braves take on Montreal in Round 2.
(3) San Francisco vs. (6) Philadelphia: Santiago Molina smacked a 3-run HR in the 4th, and Banjo Shafer and Virgil Manning shut down the Phillies over the last 3 as the Giants won Game 5, 3-2.
The teams split the first two before Philly gained the advantage, blowing out San Fran 9-2 in Game 3 (2 HR's for Jorgenson). The Giants countered with a 16-5 blowout of their own in Game 4 (Chang and Figureoa HR's) to even up the series and set up Molina's Game 5 heroics.
The Giants now advance to a Round 2 date with the Mets.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
(3) Detroit vs (6) Chicago: Defense, or lack of it, was the name of the game for Chicago, as the Sox allowed 11 unearned runs in Game 3 and Game 5 losses.
The teams split in Detroit, with starting pitchers - Carson Graves for Detroit in Game 1, and Randall Pearson for Chicago in Game 2 - dominating the action. The Tigers got 4 unearned runs to win Game 3, but Chicago bounced back to beat Graves in Game 4.
Game 5 started out smelling like an upset, with Chicago taking a 5-1 lead through 3. But 4 errors led to 7 unearned Detroit runs, and the Tigers cruised 10-5 in the decisive game.
Detroit now moves on the face the #2 Yankees; Chicago celebrates a fine season by a very young team, and sends a number of said youngsters to Winter Ball for extra fielding practice.
(4) Oakland vs. (5) Texas: The Rangers' pitching was just too much for the A's, allowing just 8 runs in the series.
Still, the A's had a chance in Game 4 to tie the series. With the game tied at 2 after 8, Oakland's Tony Rivera took one off the leg and stole second with 1 out. He got to third on a flyball to CF, but Texas reliever Ajax Patel got Douglas Cummings to ground to short, ending the threat. Then in the 10th, the Rangers got a single, a HBP and 2 walks to plate the winner.
Texas moves on to division rival Tampa Bay; Oakland heads home but looks forward to the promotion of another serious rookie crop in Season 10.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Washington, D.C.: The first 2 games were the crucial ones in this series, as the Braves took 2 squeakers for what turned out to be an insurnountable lead.
Freddie Long's single decide Game 1 in the bottom of the 10th. Game 2 saw the Braves rally from 2 down with a Hutton solo shot in the 8th and an Eric Roosevelt 2-run single in the 9th to take a 2-0 lead. D.C. broke out for 10 runs in Game 3 (HR's from Shuey and Jackson) to get back into the series, but Alejandro Vazquez tossed a complete game for Atlanta in Game 4; Roosevelt knocked in 3 for a 6-1 win and a trip to the second round.
The Braves take on Montreal in Round 2.
(3) San Francisco vs. (6) Philadelphia: Santiago Molina smacked a 3-run HR in the 4th, and Banjo Shafer and Virgil Manning shut down the Phillies over the last 3 as the Giants won Game 5, 3-2.
The teams split the first two before Philly gained the advantage, blowing out San Fran 9-2 in Game 3 (2 HR's for Jorgenson). The Giants countered with a 16-5 blowout of their own in Game 4 (Chang and Figureoa HR's) to even up the series and set up Molina's Game 5 heroics.
The Giants now advance to a Round 2 date with the Mets.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
AL Stretch Run
The AL picture is pretty clear, save for the Texas - Tampa Bay battle for the #1 seed. Here's the rundown with 6 games to go:
Detroit leads Chicago by 4 in the North, but the Sox have been slowly creeping up for awhile. It'll be interesting to see if the lead shrinks to 3 or less by the last series, when the two teams meet for a 3-game set. The division winner will get the #3 seed; runner-up takes the 6th seed (1 White Sox win or 1 Red Sox loss eliminates Boston from wild-card contention).
In the East, the Yankees have won the division for the 6th straight year and are set as the #2 seed.
In the South, the Rays take a 1-game lead over Texas into the last 6 games. Both teams have series with division rivals Kansas City and Charlotte, so there's no schedule advantage. Winner gets the #1 seed and a bye, runner-up will be the #5 seed.
Oakland has a 4-game lead on Anaheim out West; both teams play Seattle and Portland, so the Angels need at least 2 Athletics losses to keep hope alive. They tied the season series, and they're milimeters apart in the second and third tiebreakers. Either way, the winner has the #4 seed, and the runner-up starts working on next season.
Playoff Pairings
#3 Detroit or Chicago plays #6 Detroit or Chicago (although Boston could still get in); winner of that series plays # 2 New York.
#4 Oakland or Anaheim plays #5 Texas or Tampa Bay; winner of that series plays #1 Texas or Tampa Bay.
Detroit leads Chicago by 4 in the North, but the Sox have been slowly creeping up for awhile. It'll be interesting to see if the lead shrinks to 3 or less by the last series, when the two teams meet for a 3-game set. The division winner will get the #3 seed; runner-up takes the 6th seed (1 White Sox win or 1 Red Sox loss eliminates Boston from wild-card contention).
In the East, the Yankees have won the division for the 6th straight year and are set as the #2 seed.
In the South, the Rays take a 1-game lead over Texas into the last 6 games. Both teams have series with division rivals Kansas City and Charlotte, so there's no schedule advantage. Winner gets the #1 seed and a bye, runner-up will be the #5 seed.
Oakland has a 4-game lead on Anaheim out West; both teams play Seattle and Portland, so the Angels need at least 2 Athletics losses to keep hope alive. They tied the season series, and they're milimeters apart in the second and third tiebreakers. Either way, the winner has the #4 seed, and the runner-up starts working on next season.
Playoff Pairings
#3 Detroit or Chicago plays #6 Detroit or Chicago (although Boston could still get in); winner of that series plays # 2 New York.
#4 Oakland or Anaheim plays #5 Texas or Tampa Bay; winner of that series plays #1 Texas or Tampa Bay.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
NL Stretch Run Report
The NL Division Titles are all but set, but that doesn't mean the playoff picture is clear by any means. 4 teams are within 2 games of each other for the 2 wildcards, and the Cubs and Padres are a winning streak from getting into it. Here's the rundown:
In the North, Montreal leads the league in scoring by a wide margin, with Kevin Marte (.321/27/91) making his annual MVP bid. They're also dominating the Cy Young ballot, with Pedro Mercado (17-5, 2.63), J.P. Taveras (18-4, 2.88) and John McCall (43 saves, 3.02) all up for the top pitching trophy. They'll be the #1 seed.
Barring an epic collapse, the Mets will celebrate their first East Divison crown. Walt Hernandez has been, well, Walt Hernandez (19-4, 1.45), and Andres Cedeno has been at least Hernandez-like (16-5, 2.81). They haven't been an offensive juggernaut, but with a team ERA of 3.01, they don't have to be. They're tied with the Giants for the #2 seed at the moment (and own the first tie-break).
Atlanta has wrapped up its 6th straight title in the South. Dee Dee Hutton's having his usual monster year (.304/38/122), and even though the pitching staff has fallen off a bit from last year, it's still 4th in the league with a 3.80 ERA. They're headed for the #4 seed.
Out West, the Giants are cruising to their 5th straight crown. They're not the best at anything, but they're pretty good at everything - 8th in runs, 7th in ERA, and tied for 3rd in fielding. Virgil Manning (41 saves, 3.06) has a shot at a rare double - ROY and FOY. They're in a dead heat with the Mets for the #2 seed.
The wildcards are a 4-team dogfight. Currently, the Phillies and Nationals are 2 games up on the Reds and Diamondbacks, with the Cubs and Padres 6 and 8 back. With 6 series's to go , here's how many each wc contender has with winning teams:
Philly - 4
D.C. - 4
Cincy - 2
Ariz - 3
Chi - 2
SD - 4
The schedule seems to like Cincy and the Cubbies, which could make things pretty interesting!
In the North, Montreal leads the league in scoring by a wide margin, with Kevin Marte (.321/27/91) making his annual MVP bid. They're also dominating the Cy Young ballot, with Pedro Mercado (17-5, 2.63), J.P. Taveras (18-4, 2.88) and John McCall (43 saves, 3.02) all up for the top pitching trophy. They'll be the #1 seed.
Barring an epic collapse, the Mets will celebrate their first East Divison crown. Walt Hernandez has been, well, Walt Hernandez (19-4, 1.45), and Andres Cedeno has been at least Hernandez-like (16-5, 2.81). They haven't been an offensive juggernaut, but with a team ERA of 3.01, they don't have to be. They're tied with the Giants for the #2 seed at the moment (and own the first tie-break).
Atlanta has wrapped up its 6th straight title in the South. Dee Dee Hutton's having his usual monster year (.304/38/122), and even though the pitching staff has fallen off a bit from last year, it's still 4th in the league with a 3.80 ERA. They're headed for the #4 seed.
Out West, the Giants are cruising to their 5th straight crown. They're not the best at anything, but they're pretty good at everything - 8th in runs, 7th in ERA, and tied for 3rd in fielding. Virgil Manning (41 saves, 3.06) has a shot at a rare double - ROY and FOY. They're in a dead heat with the Mets for the #2 seed.
The wildcards are a 4-team dogfight. Currently, the Phillies and Nationals are 2 games up on the Reds and Diamondbacks, with the Cubs and Padres 6 and 8 back. With 6 series's to go , here's how many each wc contender has with winning teams:
Philly - 4
D.C. - 4
Cincy - 2
Ariz - 3
Chi - 2
SD - 4
The schedule seems to like Cincy and the Cubbies, which could make things pretty interesting!
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Power Ranking #2
Ranked by W-L first, then runs differential.
1. Montreal, 42-18 - 3 7-Game winners with sub-3.20 ERA's; Ayala - .339/26/63
2. Texas, 40-19 - Robinson 19-0f-19 saves; Marrero .326/22/49
3. Tampa Bay, 39-20 - Lorenzo 5-0. 2.78; 9 players with 25+ RBI
4. Philadelphia, 38-21 - 7 pitchers with saves; Garrido - .438/20/73
5. New York Mets, 37-22 - Hernandez + Cedeno 17 wins; Franco 16 HR, 45 RBI
6. Detroit, 36-23 - Graves 11-1, 1.63; Martin .319/10/50
7. New York Yankees, 35-25 - Pickford 5 ER in last 3 GS; Cunningham .388/13/41
8. Wash. DC, 33-26 - Marquez 8-0, 2.87; 3 regulars over .300
9. Boston, 33-27 - Lima 15-of-16 saves; Miro .332.10/43
10. Anaheim, 33-27 - Guapo 13-of-14 saves; Murphy .305/26/65
1. Montreal, 42-18 - 3 7-Game winners with sub-3.20 ERA's; Ayala - .339/26/63
2. Texas, 40-19 - Robinson 19-0f-19 saves; Marrero .326/22/49
3. Tampa Bay, 39-20 - Lorenzo 5-0. 2.78; 9 players with 25+ RBI
4. Philadelphia, 38-21 - 7 pitchers with saves; Garrido - .438/20/73
5. New York Mets, 37-22 - Hernandez + Cedeno 17 wins; Franco 16 HR, 45 RBI
6. Detroit, 36-23 - Graves 11-1, 1.63; Martin .319/10/50
7. New York Yankees, 35-25 - Pickford 5 ER in last 3 GS; Cunningham .388/13/41
8. Wash. DC, 33-26 - Marquez 8-0, 2.87; 3 regulars over .300
9. Boston, 33-27 - Lima 15-of-16 saves; Miro .332.10/43
10. Anaheim, 33-27 - Guapo 13-of-14 saves; Murphy .305/26/65
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Power Ranking #1
Ranked by W-L first, then runs differential.
1. Montreal, 16-6 - 49 HR's and 147 runs lead majors
2. Philadelphia, 15-7 (+54) - good pitching + good hitting = good record
3. Cincinnati, 15-7 (+24) - Carpenter on pace for 110 dingers
4. Tampa Bay, 15-7 (+19) - 5-0 in 1-run's and extra's
5. Boston, 14-8 (+27) - Erik Monroe: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, .367 OPS-against
6. San Francisco, 14-8 (+23) - no 1-game win or loss streaks yet (kinda weird)
7. New York Mets, 14-8 (+15) - they got some real good pitchin' goin' on
8. Anaheim, 13-9 (+31) - lead AL with 136 runs
9. Texas, 13-9 (+22) - lost first 2 series; 11-4 since
10. Detroit, 13-9 (+15) - Graves returning to rookie-year form is good news
1. Montreal, 16-6 - 49 HR's and 147 runs lead majors
2. Philadelphia, 15-7 (+54) - good pitching + good hitting = good record
3. Cincinnati, 15-7 (+24) - Carpenter on pace for 110 dingers
4. Tampa Bay, 15-7 (+19) - 5-0 in 1-run's and extra's
5. Boston, 14-8 (+27) - Erik Monroe: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, .367 OPS-against
6. San Francisco, 14-8 (+23) - no 1-game win or loss streaks yet (kinda weird)
7. New York Mets, 14-8 (+15) - they got some real good pitchin' goin' on
8. Anaheim, 13-9 (+31) - lead AL with 136 runs
9. Texas, 13-9 (+22) - lost first 2 series; 11-4 since
10. Detroit, 13-9 (+15) - Graves returning to rookie-year form is good news
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Top IFA Signing Bonuses
The Javier Valdes record signing sparked some curiosity about who's gotten the top bonuses and where they are now. Thanks to geneseo98 for compiling this.
#1 $28.6MM - Javier Valdes, RF (Dominican Republic), Season 9. Signed by Oakland, currently in Low A.
#2 $27.8MM - Vic Gonzalez, 1B (Dominican Republic), Season 7. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in AAA.
#3 $23.0MM - Jolbert Lopez, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 9. Signed by Washington, D.C., currently in AAA.
#4 $22.0MM - Dennys Martin, 3B (Japan), Season 3. Signed by Chicago Cubs; in his 6th ML season, has 3 All-Star appearances and 2 Silver Sluggers.
#5 $21.9MM - Lorenzo Manto, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 6. Signed by Kansas City, reached ML in Season 8 and won AL ROY.
#6 $20.0MM - Alejandro Vazquez, SP (Dominican Republic), Season 1. Signed by Atlanta; currently in 9th ML season, has 2 All-Star apeparances and 1 Gold Glove.
#7 $18.3MM - Manuel Martin, 2B (Mexico), Season 3. Signed by Baltimore, traded to Boston in Season 4, now in 3rd ML season.
#8 $17.5MM - Luis Duran, SP (Dominican Republic), Season 3. Signed by St. Louis, now in 6th ML season.
#9T $17.0MM - Dicky Martin, SP (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Chicago White Sox, currently in High A.
#9T $17.0MM - Willie Jose, 3B (Dominican Republic), Season 1. Signed by Florida, traded to San Diego in Season 2, traded to Portland in Season 5, signed to a FA contract by San Diego in Season 8, traded to Montreal in Season 9. Currently in 7th ML season.
#11 $16.8MM - Ching-Lung Chang, LF (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in 2nd ML season.
#12 $16.5MM - Enrique Cordero, RP (Dominican Republic), Season 4. Signed by Oakland, currently in 2nd ML season.
#13 $15.9MM - Santos Lorenzo, SP (Cuba), Season 6. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in AAA.
#14 $15.5MM - Max Ferrer, SP (Costa Rica), Season 3. Signed by San Francisco; currently in 4th ML season, has 1 Gold Glove.
#15 $15.3MM - Hector Bennett, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 5. Signed by Oakland, currently in AAA.
#16 $15.2MM - Sun Wanatabe, SP (Japan), Season 7. Signed by Kansas City, currently in AAA.
#17T $15.0MM - Paul Shin, SP (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Detroit, currently in AAA.
#17T $15.0MM - Damian Chen, SS (Korea), Season 6. Signed by Cleveland, currently in 2nd ML season.
#17T $15.0MM - Juan Miro, LF (Dominican Republic), Season 4. Signed by Boston, currently in 3rd ML season.
#1 $28.6MM - Javier Valdes, RF (Dominican Republic), Season 9. Signed by Oakland, currently in Low A.
#2 $27.8MM - Vic Gonzalez, 1B (Dominican Republic), Season 7. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in AAA.
#3 $23.0MM - Jolbert Lopez, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 9. Signed by Washington, D.C., currently in AAA.
#4 $22.0MM - Dennys Martin, 3B (Japan), Season 3. Signed by Chicago Cubs; in his 6th ML season, has 3 All-Star appearances and 2 Silver Sluggers.
#5 $21.9MM - Lorenzo Manto, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 6. Signed by Kansas City, reached ML in Season 8 and won AL ROY.
#6 $20.0MM - Alejandro Vazquez, SP (Dominican Republic), Season 1. Signed by Atlanta; currently in 9th ML season, has 2 All-Star apeparances and 1 Gold Glove.
#7 $18.3MM - Manuel Martin, 2B (Mexico), Season 3. Signed by Baltimore, traded to Boston in Season 4, now in 3rd ML season.
#8 $17.5MM - Luis Duran, SP (Dominican Republic), Season 3. Signed by St. Louis, now in 6th ML season.
#9T $17.0MM - Dicky Martin, SP (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Chicago White Sox, currently in High A.
#9T $17.0MM - Willie Jose, 3B (Dominican Republic), Season 1. Signed by Florida, traded to San Diego in Season 2, traded to Portland in Season 5, signed to a FA contract by San Diego in Season 8, traded to Montreal in Season 9. Currently in 7th ML season.
#11 $16.8MM - Ching-Lung Chang, LF (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in 2nd ML season.
#12 $16.5MM - Enrique Cordero, RP (Dominican Republic), Season 4. Signed by Oakland, currently in 2nd ML season.
#13 $15.9MM - Santos Lorenzo, SP (Cuba), Season 6. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in AAA.
#14 $15.5MM - Max Ferrer, SP (Costa Rica), Season 3. Signed by San Francisco; currently in 4th ML season, has 1 Gold Glove.
#15 $15.3MM - Hector Bennett, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 5. Signed by Oakland, currently in AAA.
#16 $15.2MM - Sun Wanatabe, SP (Japan), Season 7. Signed by Kansas City, currently in AAA.
#17T $15.0MM - Paul Shin, SP (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Detroit, currently in AAA.
#17T $15.0MM - Damian Chen, SS (Korea), Season 6. Signed by Cleveland, currently in 2nd ML season.
#17T $15.0MM - Juan Miro, LF (Dominican Republic), Season 4. Signed by Boston, currently in 3rd ML season.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
AL South Season 9 Preview
It was a good year for the AL South in Season 8, with Texas taking the crown and Charlotte getting to the division round as a wildcard. Kansas City and Tampa Bay advanced their rebuilding efforts with major international free agent signings, and the Royals' Lorenzo Manto took the AL Rookie of the Year.
OFFENSE
Texas led the league with 993 runs scored last year and brings back largely the same lineup. All-Star and Silver Slugger CF Juan Marrero (.288/45/110) leads the balanced attack (9 players with 20+ HR's), with SS Ismael Lopez (.259/31/106) and C/DH Chris Mullens (.317/39/99) in supporting run-production roles. RF Jason Walls (.354 OBP) and the 1B platoon of Wolf Douglas (.393 OBP) and Brett Ross (.383 OBP) are the primary table-setters. It looks like 2 rookies will make the opening-day roster: Jerry Wilkinson (.252/34/89 at AAA) takes over at 3B for the traded Jerry Kaline, and Chris Grimsley (.280/37/95 at AAA) will get some AB's at DH. There are no holes in this lineup; 1000 runs is possible this year.
Charlotte dropped to 835 runs last year (from 936 in their division-winning Season 7), so they're looking for some punch. The first boost will come from the return of 2-time MVP Earl Jorgenson, who missed most of last year. Early reports say he's swinging the bat as well as ever but not running like he used to. RF Jose Mondesi had his lowest HR total (37) since Season 2, and could be another pick-me-up. And B.C. Javier could easily snap back from a .255 effort. 3B Adam Martin's power is slipping away, but he should still post solid numbers. C Frankie Spahn swings at everything...the good news is it goes a long way when he connects.
Kansas City scored 853 runs last year, good for 4th in the AL. The Royals' offense begins but does not end with super-sophomores Lorenzo Manto (.317/30/109) and Hersh Taylor (.280/47/115). Season 7 ROY Emil Pichardo "slumped" to .289/22/77 last year; a return to his rookie form would give KC a deadly trio of 3 of the league's best young hitters. They're counting on 2 more rookies for big contributions: CF Wilt Benes has a razor-sharp batting eye and handles RHP - the jury's out on how he'll do with lefties; C Harry James looks like a nice hitter...the question is where he'll play. The word around Spring Training is he'll takeover as the full-time DH early on.
Tampa Bay was dead last in runs last season but will turn over two-thirds of the lineup. Joseph Ishii and Izzy Jones (obtained for prospects), move in at CF and 3B. RF Cristobal Marquez signed a rich FA deal. They've already promoted SS Mariano Mateo and 1B Yonder Manto and handed them starting jobs; we can expect to see Season 7 mega-IFA Vic Gonzalez and LF/RF Geraldo Roque by the 20-game mark. This won't be one of the top offenses in the league...it may not even reach the top half...but it will be much improved.
PITCHING
Texas posted the AL's 3rd-best ERA last year (4.25) but looks to improve. The rotation stays intact, with headliner Sherry Pierre poised for a Cy Young run one of these years (yes, even in Ameriquest Field). The long relief corps is entirely rebuilt with rookies Branch Crosby and Jose Pizzaro, plus FA Ajax Patel. Patrick Michaels comes over from the Yankees as the main setup man to Gene Robinson, who established himself as a reliable closer last season. There are a few question marks in the pen...rumors have the Rangers shopping around for another setup man.
Charlotte's pitching was right behind Texas' last year at 4.26. Warren Justice and Hick Hernandez lead the workmanlike rotation; 2nd-year man Chipper O'Conner got 10 starts last season and could join the rotation full-time. Eugene O'Neill headed the closer committee last year with a fine 11-save, 1.89 ERA effort. With team ERA's of 4.24 and 4.26 the last 2 seasons and virtually same personnel, this group should be very predictable; which means they'll in all likelihood throw lights out or suck.
Kansas City posted a 5.17 ERA last year and needs some arms to go with all those bats. Damaso Palacios seems most likely to step up - he had a nice sophomore season (15-12, 3.72) but control problems and/or gopher balls have limited his effectiveness since. In the pen, Raymond Karsay posted a 3.24 ERA in 75 innings, but with a career mark of 4.88, I wouldn't count on a repeat. The good news resides in AAA on the arms of Armando Taveras (Season 7 #2 overall) and Sun Wanatabe (big-ticket Season 7 IFA) - both could use more development but could get the call if KC's bats put them in the race.
Tampa Bay put up a pretty good 4.25 ERA last year (4th), largely due to lefty SP's Stuart Wilson (13-11.3.69) and Blaine Lowry (11-13, 4.03), plus some good efforts by anonymous guys. There will be less anonymity this year: much-ballyhooed SP prospect Santos Lorenzo will debut around game 20, as will his IFA counterpart Javy Johnson. FA Karim Wallace was signed to a 5-year deal to steady the pen. The Rays also recently traded for promising-but-underachieving RP Houston Webb; he's put up sparkling numbers in Spring Training and could earn a setup role.
PREDICTIONS
1. Texas 104-58
2. Charlotte 92-70
3. Kansas City 85-77
4. Tampa Bay 82-80
ROY Watch: Tampa Bay's Santos Lorenzo and Vic Gonazalez; KC's Harry James
MVP Watch: Texas' CF Juan Marrero, Charlotte's 2B Earl Jorgenson, KC's Lorenzo Manto and Hersh Taylor
Cy Young Watch: Texas' Sherry Pierre
OFFENSE
Texas led the league with 993 runs scored last year and brings back largely the same lineup. All-Star and Silver Slugger CF Juan Marrero (.288/45/110) leads the balanced attack (9 players with 20+ HR's), with SS Ismael Lopez (.259/31/106) and C/DH Chris Mullens (.317/39/99) in supporting run-production roles. RF Jason Walls (.354 OBP) and the 1B platoon of Wolf Douglas (.393 OBP) and Brett Ross (.383 OBP) are the primary table-setters. It looks like 2 rookies will make the opening-day roster: Jerry Wilkinson (.252/34/89 at AAA) takes over at 3B for the traded Jerry Kaline, and Chris Grimsley (.280/37/95 at AAA) will get some AB's at DH. There are no holes in this lineup; 1000 runs is possible this year.
Charlotte dropped to 835 runs last year (from 936 in their division-winning Season 7), so they're looking for some punch. The first boost will come from the return of 2-time MVP Earl Jorgenson, who missed most of last year. Early reports say he's swinging the bat as well as ever but not running like he used to. RF Jose Mondesi had his lowest HR total (37) since Season 2, and could be another pick-me-up. And B.C. Javier could easily snap back from a .255 effort. 3B Adam Martin's power is slipping away, but he should still post solid numbers. C Frankie Spahn swings at everything...the good news is it goes a long way when he connects.
Kansas City scored 853 runs last year, good for 4th in the AL. The Royals' offense begins but does not end with super-sophomores Lorenzo Manto (.317/30/109) and Hersh Taylor (.280/47/115). Season 7 ROY Emil Pichardo "slumped" to .289/22/77 last year; a return to his rookie form would give KC a deadly trio of 3 of the league's best young hitters. They're counting on 2 more rookies for big contributions: CF Wilt Benes has a razor-sharp batting eye and handles RHP - the jury's out on how he'll do with lefties; C Harry James looks like a nice hitter...the question is where he'll play. The word around Spring Training is he'll takeover as the full-time DH early on.
Tampa Bay was dead last in runs last season but will turn over two-thirds of the lineup. Joseph Ishii and Izzy Jones (obtained for prospects), move in at CF and 3B. RF Cristobal Marquez signed a rich FA deal. They've already promoted SS Mariano Mateo and 1B Yonder Manto and handed them starting jobs; we can expect to see Season 7 mega-IFA Vic Gonzalez and LF/RF Geraldo Roque by the 20-game mark. This won't be one of the top offenses in the league...it may not even reach the top half...but it will be much improved.
PITCHING
Texas posted the AL's 3rd-best ERA last year (4.25) but looks to improve. The rotation stays intact, with headliner Sherry Pierre poised for a Cy Young run one of these years (yes, even in Ameriquest Field). The long relief corps is entirely rebuilt with rookies Branch Crosby and Jose Pizzaro, plus FA Ajax Patel. Patrick Michaels comes over from the Yankees as the main setup man to Gene Robinson, who established himself as a reliable closer last season. There are a few question marks in the pen...rumors have the Rangers shopping around for another setup man.
Charlotte's pitching was right behind Texas' last year at 4.26. Warren Justice and Hick Hernandez lead the workmanlike rotation; 2nd-year man Chipper O'Conner got 10 starts last season and could join the rotation full-time. Eugene O'Neill headed the closer committee last year with a fine 11-save, 1.89 ERA effort. With team ERA's of 4.24 and 4.26 the last 2 seasons and virtually same personnel, this group should be very predictable; which means they'll in all likelihood throw lights out or suck.
Kansas City posted a 5.17 ERA last year and needs some arms to go with all those bats. Damaso Palacios seems most likely to step up - he had a nice sophomore season (15-12, 3.72) but control problems and/or gopher balls have limited his effectiveness since. In the pen, Raymond Karsay posted a 3.24 ERA in 75 innings, but with a career mark of 4.88, I wouldn't count on a repeat. The good news resides in AAA on the arms of Armando Taveras (Season 7 #2 overall) and Sun Wanatabe (big-ticket Season 7 IFA) - both could use more development but could get the call if KC's bats put them in the race.
Tampa Bay put up a pretty good 4.25 ERA last year (4th), largely due to lefty SP's Stuart Wilson (13-11.3.69) and Blaine Lowry (11-13, 4.03), plus some good efforts by anonymous guys. There will be less anonymity this year: much-ballyhooed SP prospect Santos Lorenzo will debut around game 20, as will his IFA counterpart Javy Johnson. FA Karim Wallace was signed to a 5-year deal to steady the pen. The Rays also recently traded for promising-but-underachieving RP Houston Webb; he's put up sparkling numbers in Spring Training and could earn a setup role.
PREDICTIONS
1. Texas 104-58
2. Charlotte 92-70
3. Kansas City 85-77
4. Tampa Bay 82-80
ROY Watch: Tampa Bay's Santos Lorenzo and Vic Gonazalez; KC's Harry James
MVP Watch: Texas' CF Juan Marrero, Charlotte's 2B Earl Jorgenson, KC's Lorenzo Manto and Hersh Taylor
Cy Young Watch: Texas' Sherry Pierre
Monday, October 19, 2009
Twins Get Seanz' Replacement
In the last A/B signing before Spring Training, Minnesota got its successor to the ballyhooed Jolbert Saenz, the well-traveled Dickie Hodges (2 years, $4.9MM). Hodges has had stints in Cincinnati (2), Kansas City and Baltimore during his 8-year Kinsella career, racking up a .266 career BA with 106 HR's. He also won a Gold Glove for his work with the Reds in Season 6 (which is, interestingly, 1 more Player Award than his predecessor won).
Hodges is a mild plus offensively for a C, at least against lefties. He's a capable, if not superlative pitch-caller and has a better-than adequate throwing arm. His most remarkable trait, though, is his iron-man durability - he's very capable of catching all 162 games without tiring (a feat he has pulled off 3 times). For the price, the Twins have made a great deal. Grade: A
Hodges is a mild plus offensively for a C, at least against lefties. He's a capable, if not superlative pitch-caller and has a better-than adequate throwing arm. His most remarkable trait, though, is his iron-man durability - he's very capable of catching all 162 games without tiring (a feat he has pulled off 3 times). For the price, the Twins have made a great deal. Grade: A
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Cubbies sign Saenz For Record (we think) Bucks
With free agency winding down, the Chicago Cubs prevailed in the frenzied bidding for Jolbert Saenz and signed the former Twins backstop to a 5-year, $85MM deal.
Saenz had been in the Twins organization for all 8 Kinsella seasons, coming to the majors in Season 3 and hitting .301 with 103 HR's over 6 seasons. He also set career highs with a .307 average, 24 HR's and 80 RBI last year.
Never the object of major publicity or attention during his years in the northland, Saenz found a bulls-eye materializing on his chest when Expos GM huskypride attempted to scare everyone off a targeted player (implying a max bid), and speculation centered on Saenz. The target's even brighter now that the ultimate judgement of Saenz and his contract depend on a Cubs World Series win sometime in the next 5 years.
Very good player, maybe the best in this free-agent class, but a risky contract. Grade A if the Cubs win a Series during the contract, Grade F if they don't.
In other late free-agency news:
Phillies: Alexander Myers, LF - 2 years, $8.2MM (mutual option). Lifetime .315 hitter can still get on base, but his days of 20+ HR's are probably over. Philly's collecting quite a surplus of LF's, making us think a trade for something they couldn't find in FA (3B?) is afoot. Grade: A
Astros: Derrick Russ, 3B - 5 years, $35MM. Steady hot cornerman compiled a .276 BA and 147 HR's, plus a Silver Slugger (Season 3) and an All-Star Game (Season 8) in his 7 years with the Expos. 5-year contracts for 31 year-old hitters always come with ratings decline concerns, particularly in the power and durability departments, where Russ has already seen a little erosion. All in all, though, solid player for a a decent price. Grade: B
Padres: Kerry Dispenza, RP - 2 years, $5.1MM ($4.5MM bonused this year). Love this signing for a couple of reasons. First, he's really a good fit for San Diego - Dispenza's the poster boy for ballpark effects (5+ ERA with Texas, 2.87 with Portland last year). He has the kind of OK-to-pretty good ratings that can play well in Petco. Second, the big bonus and minimum salary could make him very attractive trade bait come deadline-time, either this year or next. Grade: Best oddball, quirky, savvy signing of the year
Tigers: William Ryan, 3B - 3 years, $11.3MM. Cracked 43 dingers and made the All-Star Team for Cincy last year, but Great American is +2, +2 for HR's and Comerica is -2, -2. It's a big difference and will almost certainly suppress his power numbers. He's a good defender at 3B, and it's a small price for a full-player...just be ready for disappointing production. Grade: C+
Saenz had been in the Twins organization for all 8 Kinsella seasons, coming to the majors in Season 3 and hitting .301 with 103 HR's over 6 seasons. He also set career highs with a .307 average, 24 HR's and 80 RBI last year.
Never the object of major publicity or attention during his years in the northland, Saenz found a bulls-eye materializing on his chest when Expos GM huskypride attempted to scare everyone off a targeted player (implying a max bid), and speculation centered on Saenz. The target's even brighter now that the ultimate judgement of Saenz and his contract depend on a Cubs World Series win sometime in the next 5 years.
Very good player, maybe the best in this free-agent class, but a risky contract. Grade A if the Cubs win a Series during the contract, Grade F if they don't.
In other late free-agency news:
Phillies: Alexander Myers, LF - 2 years, $8.2MM (mutual option). Lifetime .315 hitter can still get on base, but his days of 20+ HR's are probably over. Philly's collecting quite a surplus of LF's, making us think a trade for something they couldn't find in FA (3B?) is afoot. Grade: A
Astros: Derrick Russ, 3B - 5 years, $35MM. Steady hot cornerman compiled a .276 BA and 147 HR's, plus a Silver Slugger (Season 3) and an All-Star Game (Season 8) in his 7 years with the Expos. 5-year contracts for 31 year-old hitters always come with ratings decline concerns, particularly in the power and durability departments, where Russ has already seen a little erosion. All in all, though, solid player for a a decent price. Grade: B
Padres: Kerry Dispenza, RP - 2 years, $5.1MM ($4.5MM bonused this year). Love this signing for a couple of reasons. First, he's really a good fit for San Diego - Dispenza's the poster boy for ballpark effects (5+ ERA with Texas, 2.87 with Portland last year). He has the kind of OK-to-pretty good ratings that can play well in Petco. Second, the big bonus and minimum salary could make him very attractive trade bait come deadline-time, either this year or next. Grade: Best oddball, quirky, savvy signing of the year
Tigers: William Ryan, 3B - 3 years, $11.3MM. Cracked 43 dingers and made the All-Star Team for Cincy last year, but Great American is +2, +2 for HR's and Comerica is -2, -2. It's a big difference and will almost certainly suppress his power numbers. He's a good defender at 3B, and it's a small price for a full-player...just be ready for disappointing production. Grade: C+
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Rays Enter FA Fray
Longtime doormat Tampa Bay entered the free-agent wars today, signing Type A FA's Cristobal Marquez (RF) and Karim Wallace (RP). Marquez is a career .259 hitter with 166 HR's over 6 seasons for the Giants. He's one of this year's youngest free agents at 28, having opted out after 3 arbitration years with the Giants. Wallace has seen both closer and setup duty over 8 seasons with the Red Sox, Angels and Cubs, compiling a 3.91 ERA. The Rays are getting 2 quality players...just not cheaply. Grade(s): B
The signings fueled speculation among Ray-watchers that the club would mount an all-out effort to contend this season, promoting prospects wholesale and signing more free agents. GM blanch13 quieted the buzz at least momentarily by ruling out more free agent signings: "We expended our FA budget on Marquez and Wallace, and we're very happy with those signings. We bid early on (former MIN C Jolbert) Saenz, but the bidding quickly got into the 'this is the one guy that puts us over' range, and that's not our situation. We need help in lots of places."
The signings fueled speculation among Ray-watchers that the club would mount an all-out effort to contend this season, promoting prospects wholesale and signing more free agents. GM blanch13 quieted the buzz at least momentarily by ruling out more free agent signings: "We expended our FA budget on Marquez and Wallace, and we're very happy with those signings. We bid early on (former MIN C Jolbert) Saenz, but the bidding quickly got into the 'this is the one guy that puts us over' range, and that's not our situation. We need help in lots of places."
Tigers Nab Martin
The Detroit Tigers took a big step toward getting back into the AL North pennant fight today, signing FA 1B Pascual Martin to a 3-year, $24MM contract.
The Tigers took the North in Seasons 6 and 7 (plus the Season 7 World Series), but struggled to 3rd at 73-89 last year, largely due to a 126-run drop in offense. Martin set the new single-season batting average record last year (.389) - his high-contact style fits with the spacious dimensions at Comerica.
Tigers owner jdrake confirmed he had gone as far on the Martin bidding as he could, and was "surprised" to get him for 6.3/9/9 + a team option.
Martin is on of the top hitters in the league and a perfect fit for Detroit's park. Only the Pickford signing exceeds this one so far. Grade: A
The Tigers took the North in Seasons 6 and 7 (plus the Season 7 World Series), but struggled to 3rd at 73-89 last year, largely due to a 126-run drop in offense. Martin set the new single-season batting average record last year (.389) - his high-contact style fits with the spacious dimensions at Comerica.
Tigers owner jdrake confirmed he had gone as far on the Martin bidding as he could, and was "surprised" to get him for 6.3/9/9 + a team option.
Martin is on of the top hitters in the league and a perfect fit for Detroit's park. Only the Pickford signing exceeds this one so far. Grade: A
Friday, October 16, 2009
Indians, Braves, Red Sox Come Out Swinging in FA
(Please don't take my grades too seriously...just the opinions of 1 guy who hasn't figured this game out yet)
Cleveland, Atlanta and Boston dominated the early A/B FA signings, inking 7 of the first 11 contracts.
Indians:
Del Wilhelm - LF - 4 years, $30MM. Some teams probably stayed away because of his declining power ratings, but the Tribe was more persuaded by his 8 consecutive .300 seasons and still-superb durability. Even at 33, one of the top FA's in this class...certainly among the top 5 hitters available. Some concern about low makeup leading to plummeting ratings in the out years of the contract (perhaps a mutual option on the last year would have been prudent), but a solid signing nonetheless. Grade: B
Albert Gonzalez - 2B/LF - 2 years, $11.6MM. Should be good for .260 with 20-25 HR's - a big offensive boost if he plays 2B (this year and next are pretty short on good 2B's), but that's not altogether clear. He's adequate at best defensively at 2B, and the Wahoos are building up an oversupply of 2B/LF types. Kudos for getting this guy on only a 2-year deal. Grade: B+
Jimmie Ruiz - C - 3 years, $7.5MM. "Grandpa" Ruiz can still handle a pitching staff, although he's no longer much of a threat on offense. This signing gets my first raspberry on 2 counts: first, he's not really any better than the 2 (much cheaper) guys they already have; and second, it's a 3-year contract for a guy who's ratings are already in free-fall. At least the Tribe can punt on the last year by declining the option.
Grade: Raspberry
Braves:
Bobby Dawkins - LF - 4 years, $20MM. Unheralded vet coming off career highs in HR's and RBI (in the hitter's graveyard of Portland, at that). His power's starting to ebb a little, but his high makeup, combined with Atlanta's nearly-expert training staff, should ward off any significant ratings declines. Nice price for a fulltime player. Grade: A-
Zach Millwood - SP - 2 years, $10.4MM. Not an ace, but a very productive back-of-the-rotation SP. Features a decent sinker and a good cut fastball...way tougher on lefties than most RHP. The thing to watch here is walks - he's been up around 1 every other inning some seasons. Could start to suffer some ratings declines this year or next, but shouldn't be a big problem. Nice short-term signing. Grade: A-
Red Sox
Victor Lima - SP/RP - 2 years, $16MM (mutual option). He's been a starter (13-6, 2.56 for FLA in Season 4), he's been a closer (92 saves for the Giants in Seasons 6-7), he's probably been everything in between. Still a top pitcher, the only question is whether the Sox can keep him glued together for another season or 2. 92 makeup and the best jacuzzis money can buy ($20MM training budget) say "yes". Grade: A
Richard Ishii - 3B - 2years, $17MM (mutual option). Signed to settle last year's 3B-by-committee approach (we think...the Mac Smith signing casts some doubt), although he's certainly a + hitter at SS (multiple Silver Sluggers). Not a cheap price, but given the all-round shortage of infielders in free agency, a good signing. Grade: B
Others:
Yankees: Scot Pickford - SP - 5 years, $30MM. Evil Empire goes for the rehab special. Here's the deal: yeah, he took a big hit, but his ratings are still very good - the BEST of any SP in free agency. If he didn't have that injury last year, and came into FA with the ratings he has - $50MM + contract. Grade: Grand Larceny A+ Steal Of Free Agency
Expos: Diego Ibarra - SP - 4 years, $48MM. Big-innings ironman benefited from the spacious OF in Seattle, but that fall-off-the-table sinker will help out in the new cozy digs. Vulnerable to lefties, but that's a minor critique. It may be the market, but that's a pretty big price tag for this guy. Grade: B-
Reds: Ernest Becker - SP - 2 years, $11.6MM. Double-digit wins for 8 straight seasons - pretty impressive. Ratings solid but unspectacular across the board. Biggest concern is is age, but high makeup and training budget should render that concern moot. Grade: B+
Brewers: Craig Evans - RP - 2 years, $10MM. Solid reliever can be a closer or 100-inning setup man. Might see his numbers tick up a bit with the ballpark change, but should still be very good. One question: why sign a 31 year-old Type A for only 2 years? Grade: B
Cleveland, Atlanta and Boston dominated the early A/B FA signings, inking 7 of the first 11 contracts.
Indians:
Del Wilhelm - LF - 4 years, $30MM. Some teams probably stayed away because of his declining power ratings, but the Tribe was more persuaded by his 8 consecutive .300 seasons and still-superb durability. Even at 33, one of the top FA's in this class...certainly among the top 5 hitters available. Some concern about low makeup leading to plummeting ratings in the out years of the contract (perhaps a mutual option on the last year would have been prudent), but a solid signing nonetheless. Grade: B
Albert Gonzalez - 2B/LF - 2 years, $11.6MM. Should be good for .260 with 20-25 HR's - a big offensive boost if he plays 2B (this year and next are pretty short on good 2B's), but that's not altogether clear. He's adequate at best defensively at 2B, and the Wahoos are building up an oversupply of 2B/LF types. Kudos for getting this guy on only a 2-year deal. Grade: B+
Jimmie Ruiz - C - 3 years, $7.5MM. "Grandpa" Ruiz can still handle a pitching staff, although he's no longer much of a threat on offense. This signing gets my first raspberry on 2 counts: first, he's not really any better than the 2 (much cheaper) guys they already have; and second, it's a 3-year contract for a guy who's ratings are already in free-fall. At least the Tribe can punt on the last year by declining the option.
Grade: Raspberry
Braves:
Bobby Dawkins - LF - 4 years, $20MM. Unheralded vet coming off career highs in HR's and RBI (in the hitter's graveyard of Portland, at that). His power's starting to ebb a little, but his high makeup, combined with Atlanta's nearly-expert training staff, should ward off any significant ratings declines. Nice price for a fulltime player. Grade: A-
Zach Millwood - SP - 2 years, $10.4MM. Not an ace, but a very productive back-of-the-rotation SP. Features a decent sinker and a good cut fastball...way tougher on lefties than most RHP. The thing to watch here is walks - he's been up around 1 every other inning some seasons. Could start to suffer some ratings declines this year or next, but shouldn't be a big problem. Nice short-term signing. Grade: A-
Red Sox
Victor Lima - SP/RP - 2 years, $16MM (mutual option). He's been a starter (13-6, 2.56 for FLA in Season 4), he's been a closer (92 saves for the Giants in Seasons 6-7), he's probably been everything in between. Still a top pitcher, the only question is whether the Sox can keep him glued together for another season or 2. 92 makeup and the best jacuzzis money can buy ($20MM training budget) say "yes". Grade: A
Richard Ishii - 3B - 2years, $17MM (mutual option). Signed to settle last year's 3B-by-committee approach (we think...the Mac Smith signing casts some doubt), although he's certainly a + hitter at SS (multiple Silver Sluggers). Not a cheap price, but given the all-round shortage of infielders in free agency, a good signing. Grade: B
Others:
Yankees: Scot Pickford - SP - 5 years, $30MM. Evil Empire goes for the rehab special. Here's the deal: yeah, he took a big hit, but his ratings are still very good - the BEST of any SP in free agency. If he didn't have that injury last year, and came into FA with the ratings he has - $50MM + contract. Grade: Grand Larceny A+ Steal Of Free Agency
Expos: Diego Ibarra - SP - 4 years, $48MM. Big-innings ironman benefited from the spacious OF in Seattle, but that fall-off-the-table sinker will help out in the new cozy digs. Vulnerable to lefties, but that's a minor critique. It may be the market, but that's a pretty big price tag for this guy. Grade: B-
Reds: Ernest Becker - SP - 2 years, $11.6MM. Double-digit wins for 8 straight seasons - pretty impressive. Ratings solid but unspectacular across the board. Biggest concern is is age, but high makeup and training budget should render that concern moot. Grade: B+
Brewers: Craig Evans - RP - 2 years, $10MM. Solid reliever can be a closer or 100-inning setup man. Might see his numbers tick up a bit with the ballpark change, but should still be very good. One question: why sign a 31 year-old Type A for only 2 years? Grade: B
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
NL Wildcard Prognostications
6. New York Mets (91-71) at 3. Montreal Expos (95-67)
This series features a pair of teams that were forced to scrape and claw until the regular season’s final day to secure playoff holds. Montreal lost out on the second seed by a game, but outlasted Cincinnati to claim a fifth consecutive NL North crown. The Mets were forced to turn to uber-ace Walt Hernandez on the final day of the regular season just to get into the playoffs, winning a season-ending series with the Nats and stealing the final wildcard spot by a single game.
The Mets feature baseball’s third best pitching staff and posted a team ERA of 3.55 in the regular season. New York will need its stable of young starters to shine if it hopes to advance against a Montreal offense that finished the year with 867 runs scored, the top producing offense in the National League.
The Expos had little trouble with New York’s pitching in the regular season, winning seven of the 10 regular season tilts between the clubs. With a respectable pitching staff and high-powered offense I see little trouble ahead for the Expos, who should survive to take on Philadelphia in the divisional round.
Prediction: Montreal handles the Mets, 3-0
5. Cincinnati Reds (94-68) at 4. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
Exceeding all expectations, the Reds were one of the National League’s top teams this season, vying for the NL North title until the final weekend of the season. Losing out to Montreal may have been a blessing in disguise as Cincinnati travels to San Francisco for its wildcard matchup. The Giants cruised through the first half of the season but were just 33-38 after the All-Star break and had to fend off the hard charging Diamondbacks at season’s end.
This will be a series of polar-opposites, as the Reds led the NL with 313 homeruns and finished third with 846 runs scored and will rely heavily on the bat of MVP candidate Douglas Carpenter (.304, 61 HR, 137 RBI); while San Fran counters with stellar pitching highlighted by Cy Young hopeful Graham Ardoin (16-5, 2.57 ERA). Ardoin and the Giants posted the third-best team ERA in the NL this season, at 3.80.
Prediction: Cincinnati’s offense is too much for the G-men, 3-1
This series features a pair of teams that were forced to scrape and claw until the regular season’s final day to secure playoff holds. Montreal lost out on the second seed by a game, but outlasted Cincinnati to claim a fifth consecutive NL North crown. The Mets were forced to turn to uber-ace Walt Hernandez on the final day of the regular season just to get into the playoffs, winning a season-ending series with the Nats and stealing the final wildcard spot by a single game.
The Mets feature baseball’s third best pitching staff and posted a team ERA of 3.55 in the regular season. New York will need its stable of young starters to shine if it hopes to advance against a Montreal offense that finished the year with 867 runs scored, the top producing offense in the National League.
The Expos had little trouble with New York’s pitching in the regular season, winning seven of the 10 regular season tilts between the clubs. With a respectable pitching staff and high-powered offense I see little trouble ahead for the Expos, who should survive to take on Philadelphia in the divisional round.
Prediction: Montreal handles the Mets, 3-0
5. Cincinnati Reds (94-68) at 4. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
Exceeding all expectations, the Reds were one of the National League’s top teams this season, vying for the NL North title until the final weekend of the season. Losing out to Montreal may have been a blessing in disguise as Cincinnati travels to San Francisco for its wildcard matchup. The Giants cruised through the first half of the season but were just 33-38 after the All-Star break and had to fend off the hard charging Diamondbacks at season’s end.
This will be a series of polar-opposites, as the Reds led the NL with 313 homeruns and finished third with 846 runs scored and will rely heavily on the bat of MVP candidate Douglas Carpenter (.304, 61 HR, 137 RBI); while San Fran counters with stellar pitching highlighted by Cy Young hopeful Graham Ardoin (16-5, 2.57 ERA). Ardoin and the Giants posted the third-best team ERA in the NL this season, at 3.80.
Prediction: Cincinnati’s offense is too much for the G-men, 3-1
AL Wildcard Prognostications
6. Anaheim Angels (86-76) at 3. Oakland Athletics (86-76)
The good news? Despite finishing the season on a four-game slide the A’s won a tiebreak to claim the American League West. The bad news? Oakland faces divisional foe Anaheim in a tricky first round matchup.
While the Athletics won the season series six games to four, the Halos rebounded from a season-opening four game sweep in Oakland winning the final two series.
The Angels finished the regular season ranked fourth in the AL with a .275 team average and scored 843 runs, fifth in the junior circuit; while the Athletics are buoyed by a solid pitching staff that posted a 3.90 team ERA, second only to the Yankees in the AL.
Anaheim has to be considered the favorite in this series as the Angels have been a playoff team in each of the last eight seasons, including World Champions two years ago. Oakland, making its second playoff appearance in the last three years, will need dominant pitching as its lineup won’t be able to keep pace with the Halos in a slugfest.
Prediction: Angels take the series, 3-1
5. Charlotte Knights (90-72) at 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
The Knights cruised to the first wildcard after losing the division race to the juggernaut Rangers in the season’s first month and actually finished with the American League’s third best record. Toronto took advantage of a weak AL North to claim the franchise’s first-ever division title, finishing two games above .500 in the regular season.
With offenses that are nearly identical, Charlotte holds a slight pitching edge and an excellent bullpen. If Toronto sluggers J.J. Perez and Carlos Cruz can get to Charlotte’s starters early, the Blue Jays should win this series.
Prediction: Toronto wins 3-2
The good news? Despite finishing the season on a four-game slide the A’s won a tiebreak to claim the American League West. The bad news? Oakland faces divisional foe Anaheim in a tricky first round matchup.
While the Athletics won the season series six games to four, the Halos rebounded from a season-opening four game sweep in Oakland winning the final two series.
The Angels finished the regular season ranked fourth in the AL with a .275 team average and scored 843 runs, fifth in the junior circuit; while the Athletics are buoyed by a solid pitching staff that posted a 3.90 team ERA, second only to the Yankees in the AL.
Anaheim has to be considered the favorite in this series as the Angels have been a playoff team in each of the last eight seasons, including World Champions two years ago. Oakland, making its second playoff appearance in the last three years, will need dominant pitching as its lineup won’t be able to keep pace with the Halos in a slugfest.
Prediction: Angels take the series, 3-1
5. Charlotte Knights (90-72) at 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
The Knights cruised to the first wildcard after losing the division race to the juggernaut Rangers in the season’s first month and actually finished with the American League’s third best record. Toronto took advantage of a weak AL North to claim the franchise’s first-ever division title, finishing two games above .500 in the regular season.
With offenses that are nearly identical, Charlotte holds a slight pitching edge and an excellent bullpen. If Toronto sluggers J.J. Perez and Carlos Cruz can get to Charlotte’s starters early, the Blue Jays should win this series.
Prediction: Toronto wins 3-2
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Correction
I previously reported that Montreal had the first tiebreaker over Philly in the event of a tie...WRONG. Philly took the season series, so they win the tie and get the #2 seed.
Mets-Nationals Play-In Highlights Game 162
Game 162 still holds some intrigue for at least 2 teams in Kinsella this year, as the Mets and Nationals square off this afternoon to see who gets the last NL wildcard spot.
Mets GM dherz has already signaled his intent to start ace Walt Hernandez on 3 days' rest; D.C. skipper ea is expected to counter with lefty D.T. Porzio, although the N.Y. lineup's preference for southpaws may lead him to go with Tom Durham on short rest.
In any event, it's a sold-out Nationals Park to see the last remaining playoff fight later today.
The AL Playoff pairings are set:
#4 Toronto and #5 Charlotte go at it in the one Division Play-In Series, with the winner drawing the #1 seed Yankees.
The other Division Play-In features division rivals #3 Oakland and #6 Anaheim - the winner gets #2 Texas.
The NL Playoff Pairings have a few more possibilities remaining:
The #4-#5 and #1 bracket is set: Atlanta has secured the #1 seed and awaits the winner of the #4 San Francisco - #5 Cincinnati Division Round.
Montreal and Philadelphia are TIED for the #2 seed. The Expos take it with a win, as they have a big lead in the first tiebreaker (division record). The Expos host the Brewers and the Phils are at Pittsburgh to decide the #2 and #3 seeds. Whoever comes out on top there gets a first-round bye; the loser takes the #3 seed and faces the winner of the NY-D.C. showdown (#6 seed) in the other Division Round.
Mets GM dherz has already signaled his intent to start ace Walt Hernandez on 3 days' rest; D.C. skipper ea is expected to counter with lefty D.T. Porzio, although the N.Y. lineup's preference for southpaws may lead him to go with Tom Durham on short rest.
In any event, it's a sold-out Nationals Park to see the last remaining playoff fight later today.
The AL Playoff pairings are set:
#4 Toronto and #5 Charlotte go at it in the one Division Play-In Series, with the winner drawing the #1 seed Yankees.
The other Division Play-In features division rivals #3 Oakland and #6 Anaheim - the winner gets #2 Texas.
The NL Playoff Pairings have a few more possibilities remaining:
The #4-#5 and #1 bracket is set: Atlanta has secured the #1 seed and awaits the winner of the #4 San Francisco - #5 Cincinnati Division Round.
Montreal and Philadelphia are TIED for the #2 seed. The Expos take it with a win, as they have a big lead in the first tiebreaker (division record). The Expos host the Brewers and the Phils are at Pittsburgh to decide the #2 and #3 seeds. Whoever comes out on top there gets a first-round bye; the loser takes the #3 seed and faces the winner of the NY-D.C. showdown (#6 seed) in the other Division Round.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Handicapping the AL Stretch Drive
The AL's pretty tame compared to the NL's assorted permutations, but there are still a few variations possible. New York and Texas are set, and Charlotte has all but nailed down the first wildcard, but the North and West still hold at least a little intrigue.
North
The Jays are 5 up with 10 to play and no winning teams left on the schedule. Minnesota has the toughest schedule of the 3 contenders with a set against Oakland, but they do have a series with Toronto. They're 4-3 against the Jays this year need a sweep there to maintain any hope for a miracle. Detroit doesn't have any winning teams left, either, but at 6 back just about has to win out. Prediction: Toronto hangs in.
West
A veritable NL-like (this year) race, made more interesting by the certainty that the runnerup will get the #2 wildcard. Oakland has a cushy schedule with only Portland left with a +.500 record. Anaheim's is even easier, with the White Sox coming up. Portland has to be the sentimental choice after the Scot Pickford shoulder explosion (8 starts after the Beavers gave a couple of prospects for him on a 1-year rental), but the schedule does not favor them: Texas, Anaheim and Oakland coming up. Prediction: Crystal ball says Anaheim nips the A's. Oakland in as the second wildcard.
North
The Jays are 5 up with 10 to play and no winning teams left on the schedule. Minnesota has the toughest schedule of the 3 contenders with a set against Oakland, but they do have a series with Toronto. They're 4-3 against the Jays this year need a sweep there to maintain any hope for a miracle. Detroit doesn't have any winning teams left, either, but at 6 back just about has to win out. Prediction: Toronto hangs in.
West
A veritable NL-like (this year) race, made more interesting by the certainty that the runnerup will get the #2 wildcard. Oakland has a cushy schedule with only Portland left with a +.500 record. Anaheim's is even easier, with the White Sox coming up. Portland has to be the sentimental choice after the Scot Pickford shoulder explosion (8 starts after the Beavers gave a couple of prospects for him on a 1-year rental), but the schedule does not favor them: Texas, Anaheim and Oakland coming up. Prediction: Crystal ball says Anaheim nips the A's. Oakland in as the second wildcard.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Handicapping the NL Stretch Drive
We have great races everywhere in the NL, with 10 teams still in contention. Here's the breakdown (including my guaranteed-wrong fearless predictions):
North
Cincy and Montreal have the easiest schedules of all 10 contenders; the Cubbies have one of the toughest, including 6 with the Reds and Expos. Cincy's been getting away with shaky pitching all year - I'm predicting this bites 'em down the stretch. Montreal wins it, Cincy 2nd, Cubbies 3rd.
East
The Phils have opened up a 3-game lead, but the Mets' tough pitching and D will keep them in it. Schedule favors Philly and NY slightly over D.C. I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Mets surge to win it on the last day. Phils and Nationals battling for wildcard.
South
Now that Atlanta has opened a 7 game lead, the question is whether The Cards can stay in the wildcard race.
West
This one will come down to the Giants-Diamondbacks head-to-head season-ending series. Schedule favors San Fran a little (Brewers, Expos and Dodgers - Snakes have Pirates, Phillies and Padres), but I'm predicting Arizona pulls it out.
Wildcard
The North teams have the edge at the moment, but Chicago's schedule just looks too tough. Schedule's a Cardinal-killer, too. I like the Reds for the first wildcard - that leaves Philly and D.C. battling for the last spot. They have a head-to-head coming up...bold prediction: Somebody out of 1o teams has to pull a collapse...it's a replay of '64. D.C. sweeps Phil in that series and picks off the last playoff spot.
North
Cincy and Montreal have the easiest schedules of all 10 contenders; the Cubbies have one of the toughest, including 6 with the Reds and Expos. Cincy's been getting away with shaky pitching all year - I'm predicting this bites 'em down the stretch. Montreal wins it, Cincy 2nd, Cubbies 3rd.
East
The Phils have opened up a 3-game lead, but the Mets' tough pitching and D will keep them in it. Schedule favors Philly and NY slightly over D.C. I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Mets surge to win it on the last day. Phils and Nationals battling for wildcard.
South
Now that Atlanta has opened a 7 game lead, the question is whether The Cards can stay in the wildcard race.
West
This one will come down to the Giants-Diamondbacks head-to-head season-ending series. Schedule favors San Fran a little (Brewers, Expos and Dodgers - Snakes have Pirates, Phillies and Padres), but I'm predicting Arizona pulls it out.
Wildcard
The North teams have the edge at the moment, but Chicago's schedule just looks too tough. Schedule's a Cardinal-killer, too. I like the Reds for the first wildcard - that leaves Philly and D.C. battling for the last spot. They have a head-to-head coming up...bold prediction: Somebody out of 1o teams has to pull a collapse...it's a replay of '64. D.C. sweeps Phil in that series and picks off the last playoff spot.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Season 8 NL Forecast
My success for NL forecasts has not been as successful as for the AL, but with 3 of the 6 playoff teams accurately projected, it's still decent. Here is what the numbers gave me:
NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (1): Strength - SP
2. Montreal Expos: Strength - RP
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Weakness - Hit
4. Cincinnati Reds: Weakness - SP, RP
After this result, either my entire ranking system is crap, or the Reds currently have the world's best record through the use of smoke and mirrors. The Cubs once again look great on paper and then do not fail to dissappoint on the field. The Expos look to be in the wildcard hunt, but should fall short.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3): Strength - Hit, RP
2. New York Mets (5): Strength - SP, RP
3. Washington DC Nationals (6): Strength - RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Weakness - RP
The East looks like the powerhouse division of the National League, with the aging Phillies, who are having another slow start this season, just barely edging out the young Mets. The Nats look to defend their NL championship via the wildcard this season. The Pirates look improved, but still have a long ways to go to get out of the cellar of this stacked division.
NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (2): Strength - Hit, SP; Weakness - RP
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Houston Astros: Weakness - SP
4. Florida Marlins: Weakness - Hit
To this point, the Cards have been the southern Cubs, with an impressive looking squad that comes up short. The Braves continue to ride on Dee Dee's back and will fight with the Cards deep into the season. The Astros look improved, but haven't quite put enough pieces together yet to compete. The Marlins have quite possibly the most anemic offense yet to be assembled in this world.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (4): Strength - Hit, RP
2. San Diego Padres: Strength - Hit; Weakness - SP
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Strength - SP; Weakness - Hit
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Weakness - Hit, SP, RP
By the end of this season, the Giants should coast to another division title as none of their division competitors compare to their talent. The Padres and Diamondbacks could remain in striking distance of the wildcard late into the season, while the Dodgers are in the middle of a major overhaul.
NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (1): Strength - SP
2. Montreal Expos: Strength - RP
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Weakness - Hit
4. Cincinnati Reds: Weakness - SP, RP
After this result, either my entire ranking system is crap, or the Reds currently have the world's best record through the use of smoke and mirrors. The Cubs once again look great on paper and then do not fail to dissappoint on the field. The Expos look to be in the wildcard hunt, but should fall short.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3): Strength - Hit, RP
2. New York Mets (5): Strength - SP, RP
3. Washington DC Nationals (6): Strength - RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Weakness - RP
The East looks like the powerhouse division of the National League, with the aging Phillies, who are having another slow start this season, just barely edging out the young Mets. The Nats look to defend their NL championship via the wildcard this season. The Pirates look improved, but still have a long ways to go to get out of the cellar of this stacked division.
NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (2): Strength - Hit, SP; Weakness - RP
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Houston Astros: Weakness - SP
4. Florida Marlins: Weakness - Hit
To this point, the Cards have been the southern Cubs, with an impressive looking squad that comes up short. The Braves continue to ride on Dee Dee's back and will fight with the Cards deep into the season. The Astros look improved, but haven't quite put enough pieces together yet to compete. The Marlins have quite possibly the most anemic offense yet to be assembled in this world.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (4): Strength - Hit, RP
2. San Diego Padres: Strength - Hit; Weakness - SP
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Strength - SP; Weakness - Hit
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Weakness - Hit, SP, RP
By the end of this season, the Giants should coast to another division title as none of their division competitors compare to their talent. The Padres and Diamondbacks could remain in striking distance of the wildcard late into the season, while the Dodgers are in the middle of a major overhaul.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Season 8 AL Forecast
Yes, I know we are 25% underway with the season, but I have calculated the numbers just as I have in previous seasons. After correctly predicting 5 of the 6 AL playoff teams last season, I hope you still find my "forecast" to be an interesting read. Besides predicted finish and playoff seed, I also show the Top 4 and Bottom 4 teams in three categories (Hit, SP, RP).
AL North
1. Minnesota Twins (4) - Strength: RP
2. Detroit Tigers - Strength: SP, RP
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
In what was actually a very surprising result to me considering the player movement that has occurred over the past two seasons with the top 3 teams, the Twins narrowly edged out the defending champion Tigers and the near-miss wildcard Blue Jays.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Hit, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians - Strength: SP
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Hit
On paper, the Yankees again appear to be the dominant team in this division, though it looks as though the Indians are starting to close the gap as their predicted finish is just barely out of the wildcard as the 7th best in the AL.
AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Hit, SP
2. Charlotte Knights (6) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
The Rangers should regain the division title this season with the Knights hanging close and making another playoff appearance. The Royals, while once again 3rd, actually look like one of the most improved teams in the AL, especially at the plate where they just missed making the Top 4.
AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (5) - Strength: Hit, RP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Hit, Weakness: SP, RP
4. Seattle Mariners - Weakness: Hit, RP
The Angels have the top team with a #5 ranking in all three categories, while Oakland and Portland look to be in the playoff hunt.
AL North
1. Minnesota Twins (4) - Strength: RP
2. Detroit Tigers - Strength: SP, RP
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
In what was actually a very surprising result to me considering the player movement that has occurred over the past two seasons with the top 3 teams, the Twins narrowly edged out the defending champion Tigers and the near-miss wildcard Blue Jays.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Hit, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians - Strength: SP
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Hit
On paper, the Yankees again appear to be the dominant team in this division, though it looks as though the Indians are starting to close the gap as their predicted finish is just barely out of the wildcard as the 7th best in the AL.
AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Hit, SP
2. Charlotte Knights (6) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
The Rangers should regain the division title this season with the Knights hanging close and making another playoff appearance. The Royals, while once again 3rd, actually look like one of the most improved teams in the AL, especially at the plate where they just missed making the Top 4.
AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (5) - Strength: Hit, RP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Hit, Weakness: SP, RP
4. Seattle Mariners - Weakness: Hit, RP
The Angels have the top team with a #5 ranking in all three categories, while Oakland and Portland look to be in the playoff hunt.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Poll Results: Most Shocking
With 26 votes cast, the results are as follows:
1. Philadelphia Phillies 13-15: 13 votes
2 - Tie. Cincinnati Reds 7-20; Minnesota Twins 6-21: 5 votes each
4. Danny Alexander only 3 HR, .669 OPS: 3 votes
The big "winner" in this vote was the fall to mediocrity of the league's winningest franchise.
1. Philadelphia Phillies 13-15: 13 votes
2 - Tie. Cincinnati Reds 7-20; Minnesota Twins 6-21: 5 votes each
4. Danny Alexander only 3 HR, .669 OPS: 3 votes
The big "winner" in this vote was the fall to mediocrity of the league's winningest franchise.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Poll Results: Who would you draft #1 in an open draft?
With 19 votes cast, the results were as follows:
Santos Lorenzo, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 5
Dee Dee Hutton, 1B, Atlanta Braves - 3
Walt Hernandez, SP, New York Mets - 3
Kevin Marte, 1B, Montreal Expos - 2
Damian Chen, CF, Detroit Tigers - 2
Juan Marerro, CF, Texas Rangers - 2
Travis Murphy, 1B, Anaheim Angels - 1
Earl Jorgensen, 2B, Charlotte Knights - 1
The votes were a bit more widespread than I thought they should be, which I am guessing is attributed in some part to bias on the part of the GMs for the teams these guys play for. The winner is a future ace and was last season's big money International free agent. He probably won't see the bigs for a couple more seasons, but when he does, he is going to make an impression.
Santos Lorenzo, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 5
Dee Dee Hutton, 1B, Atlanta Braves - 3
Walt Hernandez, SP, New York Mets - 3
Kevin Marte, 1B, Montreal Expos - 2
Damian Chen, CF, Detroit Tigers - 2
Juan Marerro, CF, Texas Rangers - 2
Travis Murphy, 1B, Anaheim Angels - 1
Earl Jorgensen, 2B, Charlotte Knights - 1
The votes were a bit more widespread than I thought they should be, which I am guessing is attributed in some part to bias on the part of the GMs for the teams these guys play for. The winner is a future ace and was last season's big money International free agent. He probably won't see the bigs for a couple more seasons, but when he does, he is going to make an impression.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Season 7 NL Forecast
Here are my forecasts for the division standings for the National League for Season 7. I've added additional info for strengths or weaknesses if the team is in top or bottom 25% of the league for one of my three evaluation categories: Offense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching. Unlike the AL, the offseason movement appears to have shaken up the NL playoff picture just a bit with the NL East looking like the power division and the NL South starting to rise from the ashes. The one thing I am certain about is that the NL picture seems alot muddier than the AL with many more teams with playoff potential. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)
NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (2) - Strength: SP
2. Montreal Expos
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
Can the Cubs live up to their potential this season or will they continue to disappoint? The defending NL champions in Montreal will definitely feel the loss of Springer as Marte must now carry the team himself. The Brewers will continue to stockpile talent in the minors while their major league team flounders.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Washington DC Nationals (5) - Strength: RP
3. New York Mets (6) - Strength: SP, RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Weakness: Off, RP
The Phillies look like the team to beat once again as they excel in all areas. The Nats are still strong competitors with a dominant bullpen. The Mets have the league's best pitching staff and this season their mediocre offense should get them to their first postseason. The Pirates still have a few top performers but lack of depth remains their downfall.
NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves - Weakness: SP
4. Houston Astros - Weakness: SP
The NL South has historically been the weakest division in Kinsella, but this offseason, a strong effort was made to change that. The Cards are once again my top rated team, but after last season, I am not a believer in seeing it translate to superior on-field performance. The Marlins made some solid additions to compete for the division or wild card. The Braves are a puzzle to me as their SP looks like one of the worst, yet last season was one of the better performing staffs. The players they did bring in should help them get over .500 this season, but they should be watching the playoffs on tv. The Astros made some improvements which should take them away from the #1 pick competition and closer to the middle of the road.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (3) - Strength: Off, RP
2. San Diego Padres - Strength: Off
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Strength: SP; Weakness: Off
4. Los Angeles Dodgers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Giants will likely run away with the West again this season as their offense and pitching remain strong. The Padres made the biggest signing in the NL with the addition of Bernard Springer, who single-handedly raises their offense from middle of the pack to top tier and puts them in the wild card hunt. The D'backs will likely slip out of the playoffs this season as their offense just isn't going to provide enough run support for their top notch pitching. The Dodgers will be near the bottom of the league with weaknesses across the board.
Wild Card
1. Washington DC Nationals (5)
2. New York Mets (6)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Florida Marlins
5. Montreal Expos
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. Atlanta Braves
NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (2) - Strength: SP
2. Montreal Expos
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
Can the Cubs live up to their potential this season or will they continue to disappoint? The defending NL champions in Montreal will definitely feel the loss of Springer as Marte must now carry the team himself. The Brewers will continue to stockpile talent in the minors while their major league team flounders.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Washington DC Nationals (5) - Strength: RP
3. New York Mets (6) - Strength: SP, RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Weakness: Off, RP
The Phillies look like the team to beat once again as they excel in all areas. The Nats are still strong competitors with a dominant bullpen. The Mets have the league's best pitching staff and this season their mediocre offense should get them to their first postseason. The Pirates still have a few top performers but lack of depth remains their downfall.
NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves - Weakness: SP
4. Houston Astros - Weakness: SP
The NL South has historically been the weakest division in Kinsella, but this offseason, a strong effort was made to change that. The Cards are once again my top rated team, but after last season, I am not a believer in seeing it translate to superior on-field performance. The Marlins made some solid additions to compete for the division or wild card. The Braves are a puzzle to me as their SP looks like one of the worst, yet last season was one of the better performing staffs. The players they did bring in should help them get over .500 this season, but they should be watching the playoffs on tv. The Astros made some improvements which should take them away from the #1 pick competition and closer to the middle of the road.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (3) - Strength: Off, RP
2. San Diego Padres - Strength: Off
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Strength: SP; Weakness: Off
4. Los Angeles Dodgers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Giants will likely run away with the West again this season as their offense and pitching remain strong. The Padres made the biggest signing in the NL with the addition of Bernard Springer, who single-handedly raises their offense from middle of the pack to top tier and puts them in the wild card hunt. The D'backs will likely slip out of the playoffs this season as their offense just isn't going to provide enough run support for their top notch pitching. The Dodgers will be near the bottom of the league with weaknesses across the board.
Wild Card
1. Washington DC Nationals (5)
2. New York Mets (6)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Florida Marlins
5. Montreal Expos
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. Atlanta Braves
Monday, April 20, 2009
Season 7 AL Forecast
Here are my forecasts for the division standings for the American League for Season 7. I've added additional info for strengths or weaknesses if the team is in top or bottom 25% of the league for one of my three evaluation categories: Offense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching.
Despite some major movement in the preseason, I foresee an identical playoff line-up as last season. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)
AL North
1. Detroit Tigers (4) - Strength: RP
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
This division should be closer this season as the Jays and Twins are very close in talent with the Tigers. Meanwhile, the White Sox remain a championship caliber AAA ball club.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Yankees will once again dominate this division. The Indians have the talent to be in the wild card hunt late in the season, while the Red Sox hopes will likely have faded by the All-Star break. The Orioles only competition this season will be for a top draft pick.
AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Charlotte Knights (5) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: Off, SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Rangers are once again the class of the division with great talent in all areas. The steady Knights are close behind also with a very well-rounded team. The Royals and Rays are still in major rebuilding mode with no hope for this season.
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (3) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Anaheim Angels (6) - Strength: SP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
4. Seattle Mariners
The deepest AL division is led by the young and talented A's who excel at all facets of the game. The defending world champ Angels will get carried into the playoffs by their good starters and no real weaknesses. The Beavers offense looks spectacular but unfortunately they seem to once again be the near miss team thanks to their pitching issues, especially in the bullpen. The Mariners have some talented players but lack the depth to contend.
AL Wildcard Standings
1. Charlotte Knights (5)
2. Anaheim Angels (6)
3. Portland Beavers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Minnesota Twins
Despite some major movement in the preseason, I foresee an identical playoff line-up as last season. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)
AL North
1. Detroit Tigers (4) - Strength: RP
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
This division should be closer this season as the Jays and Twins are very close in talent with the Tigers. Meanwhile, the White Sox remain a championship caliber AAA ball club.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Yankees will once again dominate this division. The Indians have the talent to be in the wild card hunt late in the season, while the Red Sox hopes will likely have faded by the All-Star break. The Orioles only competition this season will be for a top draft pick.
AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Charlotte Knights (5) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: Off, SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Rangers are once again the class of the division with great talent in all areas. The steady Knights are close behind also with a very well-rounded team. The Royals and Rays are still in major rebuilding mode with no hope for this season.
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (3) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Anaheim Angels (6) - Strength: SP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
4. Seattle Mariners
The deepest AL division is led by the young and talented A's who excel at all facets of the game. The defending world champ Angels will get carried into the playoffs by their good starters and no real weaknesses. The Beavers offense looks spectacular but unfortunately they seem to once again be the near miss team thanks to their pitching issues, especially in the bullpen. The Mariners have some talented players but lack the depth to contend.
AL Wildcard Standings
1. Charlotte Knights (5)
2. Anaheim Angels (6)
3. Portland Beavers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Minnesota Twins
Friday, April 17, 2009
The Quest for 500 - Home Run Projections
Bribar's mention of a poll concerning our leading home run hitters and who would be the first to reach 500 got me curious about how they projected using the Bill James calculator (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments). That grew to me figuring out the projections for every home run hitter in the world with at least 3 full ML seasons. Here are the results for every player projected to hit 400 or more homeruns with their % probability of reaching 500. (Sorry about the formatting. If anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet to a blog, please let me know.)
Name Team Age Current Projection % Chance 500
Jose Mondesi CHA 28 281 633 97.0
Travis Murphy LAA 25 187 621 88.5
Dee Dee Hutton ATL 26 172 608 82.9
Bartolo Lopez CIN 27 182 570 71.9
Francisco Guillen NY1 26 201 566 72.2
Dee Bolling STL 32 306 563 82.3
Tony Masao CH1 24 166 558 67.2
Al Perez KC 27 196 556 68.4
Bernard Springer SD 28 253 540 66.2
Frank Jorgensen PHI 31 265 530 62.7
Kevin Marte MON 28 183 530 59.3
Orber Julio PIT 31 295 523 61.3
Doug Stewart FLA 23 129 492 47.7
Valerio Guillen NY1 29 218 472 39.9
Pedro Garrido PHI 29 211 471 40.0
Carter Jeffries PHI 32 253 452 30.6
Danny Alexander TOR 31 230 452 32.2
Chad Seabol STL 29 235 451 31.4
Todd Winchester CH2 27 188 448 33.3
Clyde Redmond PIT 27 161 440 32.2
Jose Roque FLA 27 177 435 29.7
Eric Roosevelt ATL 27 152 435 31.2
Benji Palmer NY2 31 229 431 24.4
Sam Kubinski SF 27 148 429 29.9
Harry Tejada CIN 30 214 428 24.8
Darryl Whitaker LAA 29 195 426 25.7
Earl Jorgensen CHA 27 177 425 26.6
Dan Guerrero ATL 32 255 424 19.0
Guy Cunningham NY1 26 154 424 28.5
Mule Benoit PIT 27 135 423 28.8
Miguel Pena MON 26 132 419 27.9
Leon Abbott LA 33 238 417 18.1
Tripp Devereaux CLE 28 171 416 24.5
Del Wilhelm PHI 31 232 414 18.1
Damian Chen DET 26 123 414 27.1
Eric Brumfield DET 28 141 409 24.7
Name Team Age Current Projection % Chance 500
Jose Mondesi CHA 28 281 633 97.0
Travis Murphy LAA 25 187 621 88.5
Dee Dee Hutton ATL 26 172 608 82.9
Bartolo Lopez CIN 27 182 570 71.9
Francisco Guillen NY1 26 201 566 72.2
Dee Bolling STL 32 306 563 82.3
Tony Masao CH1 24 166 558 67.2
Al Perez KC 27 196 556 68.4
Bernard Springer SD 28 253 540 66.2
Frank Jorgensen PHI 31 265 530 62.7
Kevin Marte MON 28 183 530 59.3
Orber Julio PIT 31 295 523 61.3
Doug Stewart FLA 23 129 492 47.7
Valerio Guillen NY1 29 218 472 39.9
Pedro Garrido PHI 29 211 471 40.0
Carter Jeffries PHI 32 253 452 30.6
Danny Alexander TOR 31 230 452 32.2
Chad Seabol STL 29 235 451 31.4
Todd Winchester CH2 27 188 448 33.3
Clyde Redmond PIT 27 161 440 32.2
Jose Roque FLA 27 177 435 29.7
Eric Roosevelt ATL 27 152 435 31.2
Benji Palmer NY2 31 229 431 24.4
Sam Kubinski SF 27 148 429 29.9
Harry Tejada CIN 30 214 428 24.8
Darryl Whitaker LAA 29 195 426 25.7
Earl Jorgensen CHA 27 177 425 26.6
Dan Guerrero ATL 32 255 424 19.0
Guy Cunningham NY1 26 154 424 28.5
Mule Benoit PIT 27 135 423 28.8
Miguel Pena MON 26 132 419 27.9
Leon Abbott LA 33 238 417 18.1
Tripp Devereaux CLE 28 171 416 24.5
Del Wilhelm PHI 31 232 414 18.1
Damian Chen DET 26 123 414 27.1
Eric Brumfield DET 28 141 409 24.7
Monday, April 6, 2009
Hall of Fame Potential - World Veterans
For this story, I am focusing on top performing players who at world creation had at least 5 invisible years of service and who will not be likely to build up their career statistics to the point at which their hall status would be more easily determined. From a scale of 0-100%, I will gauge their chances of making our Hall of Fame.
Catchers:
Robinson Jerzembeck – CHI-Sox/AZ/TX (35 yrs old, 10 invisible seasons) .317 BA, .406 OBP, .494 SLG, 740 Hits, 99 HR, 3 All-Star games: We just didn’t get a chance to see enough of him for him to have any shot at the Hall. 0%
Ralph Levine – WAS/BAL/SD (33, 5) .279, .409, .548, 833 Hits, 217 HR, 2-time MVP candidate: His hitting skills were based too strongly off his power which has fallen too much for him to be a factor any more. If his prior seasons were anything like his peak seasons, he might have had a shot, but he dropped off too soon to garner votes. 0%
First Base:
Arthur Boggs ANA/BAL (35, 8) .318, .406, .547, 1102 Hits, 198 HR, 3 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers: He is now in steep decline in skills may have just had his final productive season. Those 8 missing seasons are going to cost him, as he probably would be over 2600 hits and close to 500 home runs right now. 5%
Scott Rivers – PHI/LA/OAK (34, 5) .300, .372, .528, 1040 Hits, 209 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: He had a major career revival this season in Oakland. With only 5 missing seasons, he would be nowhere close to the career stats necessary for a non-defensive position. 0%
Second Base:
Jose Pichardo – TB/PHI (35, 9) .314, .380, .549, 1164 Hits, 215 DB, 197 HR, 204 SB, 4 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Gold Glove: During his prime, which we missed seeing, he would have been considered one of the best all around players in the game, hitting for power and average, running the bases, and playing a decent centerfield. With his missing seasons, he would be at or close to 3000 hits, 500 Hrs, and 600 SB. Since he is still capable of good production for a couple more seasons, he has a fair shot. 40%
Alexander Myers – TOR/NYY (33, 5) .322, .406, .498, 1267 Hits, 222 DB, 145 HR, 158 SB, 4 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers: Arguably the best all-around second baseman in the game over the course of his career. Barring injury, has a decent shot at 2000 real hits, making 3000 a likely occurrence for his total career. 50%
Third Base:
Jake Clapp – MIL/PHI/SF (34, 6) .308, .371, .612, 1112 Hits, 269 HR, 185 SB, 5 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers, 3 MVPs: When this world began, he was the best all around player, as he likely would have been in his previous 6 seasons. I don’t think it really matters what he does going forward as his first few seasons were that good. 100%
Adam Martin – CHA (33, 6) .278, .344, .569, 894 Hits, 250 HR, 3 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers: He has been a premier slugger but has been in decline the last couple seasons. He would have been a strong possibility for 500 home runs with the 6 extra seasons, but unfortunately homers are his only impressive offensive contribution. His chances seem slim at best. 10%
Shortstop:
Willie Edmonds – CIN (34, 8) .257, .320, .479, 848 Hits, 163 HR, 157 SB, 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers, 4 Gold Gloves: He is a rare talent with his ability to hit about 30 homers, steal about 30 bases, and win gold gloves at shortstop. With his skills still first rate at 34, he could have had 400 homers, 400 SB, and 10 gold gloves at this point in his career, but unfortunately 8 years is a lot to miss. 25%
Leftfield:
Shep McNeil – TEX/MIL/PIT/CLE (37, 7) .305, .373, .505, 1057 Hits, 162 HR, 1 All-Star: We missed out on his prime, during which he would have been a perennial All-Star with his ability to hit for power and average. Without much left in the tank, his career is going to be just too short. 0%
Sammy Rincon – TOR/KC (35, 7) .274, .344, .531, 874 Hits, 215 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: Like Adam Martin, he was an impressive power hitter, but unfortunately also like Martin, his skills are on the decline and home runs are all he did that impressed. 0%
Hayes Swann – BAL/FLA/NYY/WAS (33, 5) .321, .420, .584, 1096 Hits, 232 HR, 3 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger: It’s likely that his previous contract and his team hopping have overshadowed his accomplishments at this point. Regardless of what you think of him, he has been one of the most potent offensive forces around. With the skills to play a few more seasons, he will likely have an impressive resume before he’s done. 50%
Del Wilhelm – PHI (30,5) .311, .400, .610, 1115 Hits, 259 DB, 232 HR, 203 SB, 4 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers: He has been the quiet leader of the current Philly dynasty going unnoticed mostly due to the fact that he has been surrounded by such good teammates. At only 30, his career numbers are going to be impressive despite the lost seasons. 90%
Centerfield:
Robert Jefferson – MIL/NYY (33,5) .283, .361, .394, 1079 Hits, 75 HR, 251 SB, 3 All-Stars, 1 Gold Glove: He’s been a great centerfielder and a good hitter, but just not special enough in either for Hall consideration. 0%
DaRond Wagner – ANA (31,5) .278, .354, .411, 975 Hits, 83 HR, 212 SB, 3 All-Stars, 3 Gold Gloves: He’s impressed a little more with the glove, but like Jefferson is not Hall material. 0%
Rightfield:
Sandy Valentin – KC (38, 12) .299, .375, .501, 923 Hits, 149 HR, 3 All-Stars: In Season 1 at age 33, he had a great season and if that was the norm throughout his prime he would have been a surefire hall of famer. With his 12 missing seasons, he might have had 3000 hits with around 600 homers, but we will never know for sure. 12 seasons is just too much. 0%
Starting Pitchers (My min requirements were 1000 IP and ERA under 4.00):
Alex Kubinski – SEA/FLA/LA (38,13) 1318 IP, 989 K, .237 OAV, 1.20 WHIP, 3.47 ERA, 77-64, 1 All-Star: He was likely one of the better pitchers during those 13 missing seasons, but its just too much time lost to judge. 0%
Freddie Alston – LA/SEA (38, 7) 1142 IP, 893 K, .239 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 3.38 ERA, 77-48, 3 All-Stars: He’s been very effective, though has received some help from his home parks. With his skills rapidly eroding now, his ML career could be over and he just hasn’t done enough. 0%
Tris Breen – PIT/ATL (37, 8) 1194 IP, 954 K, .265 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.57 ERA, 78-62: Another very good pitcher with a known career that will be far too short. 0%
Jeff Bollea – BOS/BAL/TEX (37, 7) 1262 IP, 1124 K, .234 OAV, 1.23 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 87-34, 5 All-Stars: He has had a short but superb career. Since he is still one of the league’s better starters, he has a little more time but he needs to be pretty special to have a shot. 20%
Homer Flanagan – SF/TEX/FLA (36,6) 1028 IP, 853 K, .240 OAV, 1.13 WHIP, 3.30 ERA, 70-37, 2 All-Stars: When he’s on the mound, he’s been one of the best of this era. Unfortunately, his poor fitness has limited his workload and left him as a hall longshot. 10%
Paul Hujimoto – SF (35, 5) 1318 IP, 923 K, .250 OAV, 1.28 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 87-55, 2 All-Stars: He’s been consistently good every year, but never great. So he will likely lack the longevity that would make him a serious candidate. 5%
Felipe Tejada – ARI (35, 7) 1375 IP, 1071 K, .241 OAV, 1.21 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, 97-51, 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Cy Young: Tied for 2nd in career wins, he has been one of the best starters. His Season 2 performance might have been the best single season by a pitcher to this point. With a few more seasons left to add to his resume, he has a pretty good shot. 40%
Darren Chance – CHI-Sox/PHI (35,8) 1277 IP, 1236 K, .228 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.95 ERA, 90-52, 4 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs: The world leader in career ERA has been the most consistent top performer among starting pitchers. With 2 Cys already and more productive seasons ahead, he is the surest bet among starters headed to the Hall. 80%
Bernie Delgado – ARI (35, 7) 1123 IP, 800 K, .248 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.60 WHIP, 69-50: He’s been a good but not great pitcher. 0%
Patrick Rivera – KC/NYY (34, 6) 1304 IP, 1281 K, .249 OAV, 1.24 WHIP, 3.68 ERA, 97-49, 4 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: Having a Cy on the mantle elevates your status, but like Tejada, he still needs to do more to earn his place. 40%
Stephen Fischer – KC (31, 5) 1113 IP, 883 K, .260 OAV, 1.31 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, 81-47, 2 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: A Cy is always impressive, but unfortunately he’s been a frequent DL visitor and has had the consistency of Bret Saberhagen. He is only 31, so he has time, but it seems unlikely. 10%
Relief Pitchers:
Earl Patterson – LA/DET (38, 13) 403 IP, 334 K, .247 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.21 ERA, 19-24, 131/153 Saves, 2 All-Stars: He’s been a very effective closer for Detroit for the past 4 seasons. At 38, time is running out and we have just not seen enough. 0%
Wes Roosevelt – KC (36, 10) 925 IP, 782 K, .240 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.96 ERA, 56-39, 42/71 Saves: One of the best setup men in the business. He has been a bullpen workhorse logging a couple of innings almost every night. Wins and saves are stats that garner glory for pitchers and he is not able to collect much of either making him a fringe candidate at best. 5%
Vic Castillo – KC/NYY (36, 7) 265 IP, 209 K, .201 OAV, 0.92 WHIP, 1.49 ERA, 1-5, 248/261 Saves, 6 All-Stars, 3 Fireman: The most effective one-inning closer in the game. His annual stat lines look like Eckersley’s best and he is the all-time leader in saves and save percentage. He has been too good to ignore. 85%
Jorge Guapo – WAS/HOU/TEX (35, 6) 314 IP, 275 K, .263 OAV, 1.25 WHIP, 3.81 ERA, 12-19, 177/203 Saves, 3 All-Stars: He’s been a good closer, but the hall is for great players. 0%
Pedro Cabrera – BAL/STL (34,7) 267 IP, 193 K, .215 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 2.80 ERA, 4-12, 230/256 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s been a bit of a lesser version of Castillo. He still has some time to amass an impressive save total, but his entry is a bit less certain. 35%
Andres Alcantara – DET/HOU/CIN (34, 6) 444 IP, 394 K, .250 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.42 ERA, 14-25, 207/248 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s another good, but not great closer. 0%
Victor Lima – DET/FLA/SF (33, 5) 717 IP, 681 K, .222 OAV, 1.05 WHIP, 2.50 ERA, 51-25, 56/66 Saves, 2 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s one of the best pitchers in the game. It’s tough to garner hall attention in the middle relief role he has mostly occupied until this season. If he continues to close and sticks around until he’s sniffing 40, he should have the credentials. 40%
Carlos Solano – LA/FLA (31, 6) 317 IP, 293 K, .212 OAV, 1.10 WHIP, 2.98 ERA, 6-21, 247/275 Saves, 5 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: The #2 man in career saves, he will likely retire as the all-time leader with a very impressive total. A Hall plaque seems likely in his future. 60%
Catchers:
Robinson Jerzembeck – CHI-Sox/AZ/TX (35 yrs old, 10 invisible seasons) .317 BA, .406 OBP, .494 SLG, 740 Hits, 99 HR, 3 All-Star games: We just didn’t get a chance to see enough of him for him to have any shot at the Hall. 0%
Ralph Levine – WAS/BAL/SD (33, 5) .279, .409, .548, 833 Hits, 217 HR, 2-time MVP candidate: His hitting skills were based too strongly off his power which has fallen too much for him to be a factor any more. If his prior seasons were anything like his peak seasons, he might have had a shot, but he dropped off too soon to garner votes. 0%
First Base:
Arthur Boggs ANA/BAL (35, 8) .318, .406, .547, 1102 Hits, 198 HR, 3 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers: He is now in steep decline in skills may have just had his final productive season. Those 8 missing seasons are going to cost him, as he probably would be over 2600 hits and close to 500 home runs right now. 5%
Scott Rivers – PHI/LA/OAK (34, 5) .300, .372, .528, 1040 Hits, 209 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: He had a major career revival this season in Oakland. With only 5 missing seasons, he would be nowhere close to the career stats necessary for a non-defensive position. 0%
Second Base:
Jose Pichardo – TB/PHI (35, 9) .314, .380, .549, 1164 Hits, 215 DB, 197 HR, 204 SB, 4 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Gold Glove: During his prime, which we missed seeing, he would have been considered one of the best all around players in the game, hitting for power and average, running the bases, and playing a decent centerfield. With his missing seasons, he would be at or close to 3000 hits, 500 Hrs, and 600 SB. Since he is still capable of good production for a couple more seasons, he has a fair shot. 40%
Alexander Myers – TOR/NYY (33, 5) .322, .406, .498, 1267 Hits, 222 DB, 145 HR, 158 SB, 4 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers: Arguably the best all-around second baseman in the game over the course of his career. Barring injury, has a decent shot at 2000 real hits, making 3000 a likely occurrence for his total career. 50%
Third Base:
Jake Clapp – MIL/PHI/SF (34, 6) .308, .371, .612, 1112 Hits, 269 HR, 185 SB, 5 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers, 3 MVPs: When this world began, he was the best all around player, as he likely would have been in his previous 6 seasons. I don’t think it really matters what he does going forward as his first few seasons were that good. 100%
Adam Martin – CHA (33, 6) .278, .344, .569, 894 Hits, 250 HR, 3 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers: He has been a premier slugger but has been in decline the last couple seasons. He would have been a strong possibility for 500 home runs with the 6 extra seasons, but unfortunately homers are his only impressive offensive contribution. His chances seem slim at best. 10%
Shortstop:
Willie Edmonds – CIN (34, 8) .257, .320, .479, 848 Hits, 163 HR, 157 SB, 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers, 4 Gold Gloves: He is a rare talent with his ability to hit about 30 homers, steal about 30 bases, and win gold gloves at shortstop. With his skills still first rate at 34, he could have had 400 homers, 400 SB, and 10 gold gloves at this point in his career, but unfortunately 8 years is a lot to miss. 25%
Leftfield:
Shep McNeil – TEX/MIL/PIT/CLE (37, 7) .305, .373, .505, 1057 Hits, 162 HR, 1 All-Star: We missed out on his prime, during which he would have been a perennial All-Star with his ability to hit for power and average. Without much left in the tank, his career is going to be just too short. 0%
Sammy Rincon – TOR/KC (35, 7) .274, .344, .531, 874 Hits, 215 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: Like Adam Martin, he was an impressive power hitter, but unfortunately also like Martin, his skills are on the decline and home runs are all he did that impressed. 0%
Hayes Swann – BAL/FLA/NYY/WAS (33, 5) .321, .420, .584, 1096 Hits, 232 HR, 3 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger: It’s likely that his previous contract and his team hopping have overshadowed his accomplishments at this point. Regardless of what you think of him, he has been one of the most potent offensive forces around. With the skills to play a few more seasons, he will likely have an impressive resume before he’s done. 50%
Del Wilhelm – PHI (30,5) .311, .400, .610, 1115 Hits, 259 DB, 232 HR, 203 SB, 4 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers: He has been the quiet leader of the current Philly dynasty going unnoticed mostly due to the fact that he has been surrounded by such good teammates. At only 30, his career numbers are going to be impressive despite the lost seasons. 90%
Centerfield:
Robert Jefferson – MIL/NYY (33,5) .283, .361, .394, 1079 Hits, 75 HR, 251 SB, 3 All-Stars, 1 Gold Glove: He’s been a great centerfielder and a good hitter, but just not special enough in either for Hall consideration. 0%
DaRond Wagner – ANA (31,5) .278, .354, .411, 975 Hits, 83 HR, 212 SB, 3 All-Stars, 3 Gold Gloves: He’s impressed a little more with the glove, but like Jefferson is not Hall material. 0%
Rightfield:
Sandy Valentin – KC (38, 12) .299, .375, .501, 923 Hits, 149 HR, 3 All-Stars: In Season 1 at age 33, he had a great season and if that was the norm throughout his prime he would have been a surefire hall of famer. With his 12 missing seasons, he might have had 3000 hits with around 600 homers, but we will never know for sure. 12 seasons is just too much. 0%
Starting Pitchers (My min requirements were 1000 IP and ERA under 4.00):
Alex Kubinski – SEA/FLA/LA (38,13) 1318 IP, 989 K, .237 OAV, 1.20 WHIP, 3.47 ERA, 77-64, 1 All-Star: He was likely one of the better pitchers during those 13 missing seasons, but its just too much time lost to judge. 0%
Freddie Alston – LA/SEA (38, 7) 1142 IP, 893 K, .239 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 3.38 ERA, 77-48, 3 All-Stars: He’s been very effective, though has received some help from his home parks. With his skills rapidly eroding now, his ML career could be over and he just hasn’t done enough. 0%
Tris Breen – PIT/ATL (37, 8) 1194 IP, 954 K, .265 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.57 ERA, 78-62: Another very good pitcher with a known career that will be far too short. 0%
Jeff Bollea – BOS/BAL/TEX (37, 7) 1262 IP, 1124 K, .234 OAV, 1.23 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 87-34, 5 All-Stars: He has had a short but superb career. Since he is still one of the league’s better starters, he has a little more time but he needs to be pretty special to have a shot. 20%
Homer Flanagan – SF/TEX/FLA (36,6) 1028 IP, 853 K, .240 OAV, 1.13 WHIP, 3.30 ERA, 70-37, 2 All-Stars: When he’s on the mound, he’s been one of the best of this era. Unfortunately, his poor fitness has limited his workload and left him as a hall longshot. 10%
Paul Hujimoto – SF (35, 5) 1318 IP, 923 K, .250 OAV, 1.28 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 87-55, 2 All-Stars: He’s been consistently good every year, but never great. So he will likely lack the longevity that would make him a serious candidate. 5%
Felipe Tejada – ARI (35, 7) 1375 IP, 1071 K, .241 OAV, 1.21 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, 97-51, 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Cy Young: Tied for 2nd in career wins, he has been one of the best starters. His Season 2 performance might have been the best single season by a pitcher to this point. With a few more seasons left to add to his resume, he has a pretty good shot. 40%
Darren Chance – CHI-Sox/PHI (35,8) 1277 IP, 1236 K, .228 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.95 ERA, 90-52, 4 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs: The world leader in career ERA has been the most consistent top performer among starting pitchers. With 2 Cys already and more productive seasons ahead, he is the surest bet among starters headed to the Hall. 80%
Bernie Delgado – ARI (35, 7) 1123 IP, 800 K, .248 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.60 WHIP, 69-50: He’s been a good but not great pitcher. 0%
Patrick Rivera – KC/NYY (34, 6) 1304 IP, 1281 K, .249 OAV, 1.24 WHIP, 3.68 ERA, 97-49, 4 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: Having a Cy on the mantle elevates your status, but like Tejada, he still needs to do more to earn his place. 40%
Stephen Fischer – KC (31, 5) 1113 IP, 883 K, .260 OAV, 1.31 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, 81-47, 2 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: A Cy is always impressive, but unfortunately he’s been a frequent DL visitor and has had the consistency of Bret Saberhagen. He is only 31, so he has time, but it seems unlikely. 10%
Relief Pitchers:
Earl Patterson – LA/DET (38, 13) 403 IP, 334 K, .247 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.21 ERA, 19-24, 131/153 Saves, 2 All-Stars: He’s been a very effective closer for Detroit for the past 4 seasons. At 38, time is running out and we have just not seen enough. 0%
Wes Roosevelt – KC (36, 10) 925 IP, 782 K, .240 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.96 ERA, 56-39, 42/71 Saves: One of the best setup men in the business. He has been a bullpen workhorse logging a couple of innings almost every night. Wins and saves are stats that garner glory for pitchers and he is not able to collect much of either making him a fringe candidate at best. 5%
Vic Castillo – KC/NYY (36, 7) 265 IP, 209 K, .201 OAV, 0.92 WHIP, 1.49 ERA, 1-5, 248/261 Saves, 6 All-Stars, 3 Fireman: The most effective one-inning closer in the game. His annual stat lines look like Eckersley’s best and he is the all-time leader in saves and save percentage. He has been too good to ignore. 85%
Jorge Guapo – WAS/HOU/TEX (35, 6) 314 IP, 275 K, .263 OAV, 1.25 WHIP, 3.81 ERA, 12-19, 177/203 Saves, 3 All-Stars: He’s been a good closer, but the hall is for great players. 0%
Pedro Cabrera – BAL/STL (34,7) 267 IP, 193 K, .215 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 2.80 ERA, 4-12, 230/256 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s been a bit of a lesser version of Castillo. He still has some time to amass an impressive save total, but his entry is a bit less certain. 35%
Andres Alcantara – DET/HOU/CIN (34, 6) 444 IP, 394 K, .250 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.42 ERA, 14-25, 207/248 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s another good, but not great closer. 0%
Victor Lima – DET/FLA/SF (33, 5) 717 IP, 681 K, .222 OAV, 1.05 WHIP, 2.50 ERA, 51-25, 56/66 Saves, 2 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s one of the best pitchers in the game. It’s tough to garner hall attention in the middle relief role he has mostly occupied until this season. If he continues to close and sticks around until he’s sniffing 40, he should have the credentials. 40%
Carlos Solano – LA/FLA (31, 6) 317 IP, 293 K, .212 OAV, 1.10 WHIP, 2.98 ERA, 6-21, 247/275 Saves, 5 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: The #2 man in career saves, he will likely retire as the all-time leader with a very impressive total. A Hall plaque seems likely in his future. 60%
Monday, March 23, 2009
Season #6 - Final Analysis
After completing my first season in which I attempted to use my personally crafted player comparison formulas to predict the results for the season, I would have to say it was pretty darn successful. My offense and pitching predictions were generally pretty close and I would have to say that a great deal of the results variance was due to park factor, which I did not attempt to adjust for.
The variance of the NL rankings from the actuals was 20%, while the variance of the offense and pitching results was 24.4%. The AL was a little better as the AL rankings variance was only 15% and the offense/pitching variance was 15.8%. So overall, I scored a solid B, which was better than I expected.
NL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3)
2. Chicago Cubs (7)
3. Montreal Expos (4)
4. Washington DC Nationals (2)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (5)
6. San Francisco Giants (1)
7. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
8. New York Mets (9)
9. San Diego Padres (12)
10. Cincinnati Reds (6)
11. Milwaukee Brewers (16)
12. Atlanta Braves (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)
14. Florida Marlins (11)
15. Pittsburgh Pirates (10)
16. Houston Astros (15)
The only big surprises for me here were the disappointing seasons in Chicago and St. Louis and the dominating season in Frisco.
NL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
2. Montreal Expos (4)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
4. Washington DC Nationals (1)
5. Chicago Cubs (7)
6. San Francisco (2)
7. Milwaukee Brewers (10)
8. San Diego Padres (15)
9. Cincinnati Reds (6)
10. Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
11. New York Mets (14)
12. Pittsburgh Pirates (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (16)
14. Atlanta Braves (12)
15. Houston Astros (9)
16. Florida Marlins (11)
NL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (7)
2. Chicago Cubs (10)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (9)
4. Montreal Expos (8)
5. New York Mets (3)
6. Washington DC Nationals (4)
7. San Francisco Giants (1)
8. St. Louis Cardinals (5)
9. San Diego Padres (6)
10. Atlanta Braves (2)
11. Florida Marlins (11)
12. Cincinnati Reds (13)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (12)
14. Pittsburgh Pirates (14)
15. Milwaukee Brewers (15)
16. Houston Astros (16)
AL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (2)
3. Charlotte Knights (5)
4. Anaheim Angels (6)
5. Minnesota Twins (10)
6. Portland Beavers (7)
7. Oakland Athletics (3)
8. Cleveland Indians (12)
9. Boston Red Sox (11)
10. Toronto Blue Jays (9)
11. Detroit Tigers (4)
12. Seattle Mariners (8)
13. Baltimore Orioles (14)
14. Kansas City Royals (15)
15. Chicago White Sox (13)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
The biggest misses here were in Minnesota, which likely finished further down due to mid-season trades, and Detroit, who mostly surprised on the mound.
AL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. New York Yankees (2)
2. Texas Rangers (1)
3. Portland Beavers (4)
4. Charlotte Knights (3)
5. Minnesota Twins (9)
6. Anaheim Angels (8)
7. Oakland Athletics (5)
8. Cleveland Indians (7)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
10. Detroit Tigers (10)
11. Baltimore Orioles (12)
12. Seattle Mariners (14)
13. Boston Red Sox (11)
14. Chicago White Sox (13)
15. Kansas City Royals (15)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
AL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (5)
3. Anaheim Angels (2)
4. Boston Red Sox (9)
5. Charlotte Knights (4)
6. Kansas City Royals (14)
7. Minnesota Twins (12)
8. Oakland Athletics (8)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (10)
10. Cleveland Indians (13)
11. Detroit Tigers (3)
12. Seattle Mariners (6)
13. Portland Beavers (7)
14. Baltimore Orioles (15)
15. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
16. Chicago White Sox (11)
The variance of the NL rankings from the actuals was 20%, while the variance of the offense and pitching results was 24.4%. The AL was a little better as the AL rankings variance was only 15% and the offense/pitching variance was 15.8%. So overall, I scored a solid B, which was better than I expected.
NL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3)
2. Chicago Cubs (7)
3. Montreal Expos (4)
4. Washington DC Nationals (2)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (5)
6. San Francisco Giants (1)
7. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
8. New York Mets (9)
9. San Diego Padres (12)
10. Cincinnati Reds (6)
11. Milwaukee Brewers (16)
12. Atlanta Braves (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)
14. Florida Marlins (11)
15. Pittsburgh Pirates (10)
16. Houston Astros (15)
The only big surprises for me here were the disappointing seasons in Chicago and St. Louis and the dominating season in Frisco.
NL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
2. Montreal Expos (4)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
4. Washington DC Nationals (1)
5. Chicago Cubs (7)
6. San Francisco (2)
7. Milwaukee Brewers (10)
8. San Diego Padres (15)
9. Cincinnati Reds (6)
10. Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
11. New York Mets (14)
12. Pittsburgh Pirates (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (16)
14. Atlanta Braves (12)
15. Houston Astros (9)
16. Florida Marlins (11)
NL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (7)
2. Chicago Cubs (10)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (9)
4. Montreal Expos (8)
5. New York Mets (3)
6. Washington DC Nationals (4)
7. San Francisco Giants (1)
8. St. Louis Cardinals (5)
9. San Diego Padres (6)
10. Atlanta Braves (2)
11. Florida Marlins (11)
12. Cincinnati Reds (13)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (12)
14. Pittsburgh Pirates (14)
15. Milwaukee Brewers (15)
16. Houston Astros (16)
AL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (2)
3. Charlotte Knights (5)
4. Anaheim Angels (6)
5. Minnesota Twins (10)
6. Portland Beavers (7)
7. Oakland Athletics (3)
8. Cleveland Indians (12)
9. Boston Red Sox (11)
10. Toronto Blue Jays (9)
11. Detroit Tigers (4)
12. Seattle Mariners (8)
13. Baltimore Orioles (14)
14. Kansas City Royals (15)
15. Chicago White Sox (13)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
The biggest misses here were in Minnesota, which likely finished further down due to mid-season trades, and Detroit, who mostly surprised on the mound.
AL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. New York Yankees (2)
2. Texas Rangers (1)
3. Portland Beavers (4)
4. Charlotte Knights (3)
5. Minnesota Twins (9)
6. Anaheim Angels (8)
7. Oakland Athletics (5)
8. Cleveland Indians (7)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
10. Detroit Tigers (10)
11. Baltimore Orioles (12)
12. Seattle Mariners (14)
13. Boston Red Sox (11)
14. Chicago White Sox (13)
15. Kansas City Royals (15)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
AL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (5)
3. Anaheim Angels (2)
4. Boston Red Sox (9)
5. Charlotte Knights (4)
6. Kansas City Royals (14)
7. Minnesota Twins (12)
8. Oakland Athletics (8)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (10)
10. Cleveland Indians (13)
11. Detroit Tigers (3)
12. Seattle Mariners (6)
13. Portland Beavers (7)
14. Baltimore Orioles (15)
15. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
16. Chicago White Sox (11)
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
All-Star Facts & Figures
After 6 seasons, we have 6 seasons worth of All-Stars but only 5 games played since the game did not take place in Season 1. After 5 games, the NL currently holds a 3-2 lead, winning the last three in a row. Here are the game's MVPs:
2. Valerio Guillen, Boston
3. Jose Pichardo, Tampa Bay
4. Gordon Scanlan, San Diego
5. Benji Palmer, New York Mets
6. Pascual Martin, Arizona
We also have 5 seasons worth of home run derbys with champions as follows:
2. Danny Alexander, Kansas City
3. Del Wilhelm, Philadelphia
4. Dan Guerrero, Atlanta
5. Jolbert Romero, San Francisco
6. Kevin Marte, Montreal
With 6 seasons of All-Star selections, we have 360 spots between both leagues. Taking these spots are 127 one-time picks, 36 two-timers, 26 three-timers, 13 four-timers, 5 five-timers, and Vic Castillo (KC/NYY) as the lone six-time pick.
Four Timers: Patrick Rivera - KC, Darren Chance - ChiSox/Philly, Haywood Charles - Anaheim, Pedro Cabrera - St. Louis, Ryan Hamelin - SF, Andres Alcantara - Cinci/Detroit, James Hutton - Seattle, Willie Johnson - Detroit, Bernard Springer - Montreal, Alexander Myers - Toronto/NYY, Jose Pichardo - TB/Philly, Danny Alexander - KC, Del Wilhelm - Philly
Five Timers: B.C. Javier - Charlotte, Carlos Solano - LA/Florida, Hector Joseph - KC, Jake Clapp - Milwaukee/Philly/SF, Jeff Bollea - Boston/Texas
All-Stars for the Most Teams - Jake Clapp 5 games for 3 teams (Milwaukee/Philly/SF) and Hayes Swann 3 games for 3 teams (Baltimore/Florida/DC)
Teams with the Most All-Stars: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati with 26
Team with the Least All-Stars: Ossie Flynn this season became the first and only All-Star for Oakland. Four teams are next tied with 5 selections.
2. Valerio Guillen, Boston
3. Jose Pichardo, Tampa Bay
4. Gordon Scanlan, San Diego
5. Benji Palmer, New York Mets
6. Pascual Martin, Arizona
We also have 5 seasons worth of home run derbys with champions as follows:
2. Danny Alexander, Kansas City
3. Del Wilhelm, Philadelphia
4. Dan Guerrero, Atlanta
5. Jolbert Romero, San Francisco
6. Kevin Marte, Montreal
With 6 seasons of All-Star selections, we have 360 spots between both leagues. Taking these spots are 127 one-time picks, 36 two-timers, 26 three-timers, 13 four-timers, 5 five-timers, and Vic Castillo (KC/NYY) as the lone six-time pick.
Four Timers: Patrick Rivera - KC, Darren Chance - ChiSox/Philly, Haywood Charles - Anaheim, Pedro Cabrera - St. Louis, Ryan Hamelin - SF, Andres Alcantara - Cinci/Detroit, James Hutton - Seattle, Willie Johnson - Detroit, Bernard Springer - Montreal, Alexander Myers - Toronto/NYY, Jose Pichardo - TB/Philly, Danny Alexander - KC, Del Wilhelm - Philly
Five Timers: B.C. Javier - Charlotte, Carlos Solano - LA/Florida, Hector Joseph - KC, Jake Clapp - Milwaukee/Philly/SF, Jeff Bollea - Boston/Texas
All-Stars for the Most Teams - Jake Clapp 5 games for 3 teams (Milwaukee/Philly/SF) and Hayes Swann 3 games for 3 teams (Baltimore/Florida/DC)
Teams with the Most All-Stars: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati with 26
Team with the Least All-Stars: Ossie Flynn this season became the first and only All-Star for Oakland. Four teams are next tied with 5 selections.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Season #6 Mid-Season Analysis
The All-Star break seems like a perfect time to look back at my preseason analysis and see how things have panned out. Overall, I don’t think my formulas are turning out too bad. (Playoff teams in bold, if season were over now)
NL North Predictions
1. Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
2. Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
3. Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
4. Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15
NL North Mid-Season
1. Cincinnati Reds: 53-38, NL #4, RS #5, RA #11
2. Montreal Expos: 51-40, NL #5, RS #6, RA #9
3. Chicago Cubs: 47-44, NL #7, RS #7, RA #8
4. Milwaukee Brewers: 34-57, NL #15, RS #8, RA #16
The Reds stormed out of the gate and have been the surprise to team in the division. Unfortunately, they have fallen a bit back to earth and are still vulnerable to the Expos and Cubs. (I know, meh) The Cubs and Expos have performed below expectations to this point but are still in striking distance. As expected, the Brewers have been a non-factor in the playoff race.
NL East Predictions
1. Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
2. Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14
NL East Mid-Season
1. Washington D.C. Nationals: 63-28, NL #2, RS #1, RA #4
2. Philadelphia Phillies: 58-33, NL #3, RS #4, RA #2
3. New York Mets: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #14, RA #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #9, RA #14
The Nationals and Phillies have been pretty close to what was expected from them. The Nationals have gotten a big boost from the MVP-like first half of Hayes Swann and his unfortunate injury may knock them down a peg. The Mets young pitching looks to be as good as expected so if this team can find some bats in future seasons, they can start playing in October. The Pirates have won quite a few close games and have kept their record more respectable than expected, despite their dreadful pitching.
NL South Predictions
1. St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
2. Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
3. Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
4. Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16
NL South Mid-Season
1. Florida Marlins: 44-47, NL #8, RS #10, RA #7
2. St. Louis Cardinals: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #11, RA #6
3. Atlanta Braves: 37-54, NL #14, RS #16, RA #3
4. Houston Astros: 33-58, NL #16, RS #12, RA #15
The NL South remains the weakest division in all of Kinsella, with the under .500 Marlins leading the way with middle of the pack offense and pitching. The Cardinals have been major underachievers at the plate and could still run away with the division if the bats start performing as expected. The Braves have been the most out of balance team in the league as their abysmal offense has consisted of home runs or nothing. (And I guess I was wrong with my previous comment believing that the Braves offense would be better than their ranking suggested.) Their pitchers must be getting very frustrated with their brilliance this season not being supported. The Astros were expected to be at the bottom and have not disappointed.
NL West Predictions
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
2. San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
3. San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13
NL West Mid-Season
1. San Francisco Giants: 66-25, NL #1, RS #2, RA #1
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-41, NL #6, RS #3, RA #10
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #13, RA #13
4. San Diego Padres: 38-53, NL #13, RS #15, RA #12
The Giants are smoking hot and are excelling at every aspect of the game. With a 16 game lead at the break, it sure seems as if their 2nd NL West banner will be going up soon. The D’backs have been very surprising as their ratings indicated they would have a middle of the pack offense and dominant pitching, but reality has shown almost the complete opposite. They are still in great shape for a wild card run, especially if their pitching gets on track. I thought it was pretty funny when I saw that I had the Dodgers hitting and pitching both ranked #13 and now they are #13 in runs scored and runs against. The Padres are having a horrific season at the plate and can almost count themselves out as a result.
AL North Predictions
1. Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
2. Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
3. Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
4. Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16
AL North Mid-Season
1. Detroit Tigers: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #9, RA #6
2. Minnesota Twins: 44-47, AL #9, RS #4, RA #11
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 41-50, AL #12, RS #8, RA #15
4. Chicago White Sox: 39-52, AL #13T, RS #14, RA #13
The Tigers have exceeded expectations this season, but just can’t seem to pull away in the AL’s weakest division. The Minnesota Twins seem to annually fall short of my expectations for them, yet still remain in striking distance of another division title. The Blue Jays offense has been decent, but the pitching has been horrid with rookie Sidney Wells as the only bright spot. The White Sox have been much better this season as they can eclipse last season’s win total very soon.
AL East Predictions
1. New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
2. Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
3. Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
4. Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14
AL East Mid-Season
1. New York Yankees: 56-35, AL #2, RS #2, RA #2
2. Boston Red Sox: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #12, RA #7
3. Cleveland Indians: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #7, RA #10
4. Baltimore Orioles: 35-56, AL #15, RS #10, RA #16
The Yankees have been pretty close to their predicted results and it’s only their poor luck in 1-run games (8-15) that is keeping them from putting away the division. The Red Sox are in the thick of the wild card race and have performed pretty close to expectations. Meanwhile the Indians have also performed very close to their expectations, but unfortunately it hasn’t resulted in similar numbers in the W-L columns. Not surprisingly, the Orioles are pretty much done.
AL South Predictions
1. Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
2. Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
4. Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15
AL South Mid-Season
1. Texas Rangers: 61-30, AL #1, RS #1, RA #8
2. Charlotte Knights: 46-45, AL #8, RS #5, RA #9
3. Kansas City Royals: 39-52, AL #14T, RS #15, RA #12
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 23-68, AL #16, RS #16, RA #14
The Rangers have been every bit as good as expected with a very scary team of young sluggers. The Knights have only been slightly below expectations for offense and pitching performance, but their record has them in the middle of the pack. I expect a better W-L record in the 2nd half that will see them challenge for a wild card. The Royals and Rays are both relatively devoid of ML talent and have a few seasons of rebuilding ahead.
AL West Predictions
1. Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
2. Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
3. Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
4. Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12
AL West Mid-Season
1T. Seattle Mariners: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #13, RA #1
1T. Oakland Athletics: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #6, RA #5
3. Portland Beavers: 50-41, AL #5, RS #3, RA #4
4. Anaheim Angels: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #11, RA #3
The Mariners pitching has been spectacular and has carried their weak offense and made them the division’s surprise team. Oakland and Portland have had more balanced attacks this season and neither is that much of a surprise to be in the thick of the playoff race. In the tight three-team struggle, Portland has to be the favorites to take it down and it will be interesting to see if Seattle’s weak offense will allow them to stay in the race. The most disappointing team of the season would have to be the AL’s winningest franchise, the Anaheim Angels. Their pitching has been great as expected but their offense has been nothing but Travis Murphy, who is having a spectacular season.
NL North Predictions
1. Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
2. Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
3. Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
4. Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15
NL North Mid-Season
1. Cincinnati Reds: 53-38, NL #4, RS #5, RA #11
2. Montreal Expos: 51-40, NL #5, RS #6, RA #9
3. Chicago Cubs: 47-44, NL #7, RS #7, RA #8
4. Milwaukee Brewers: 34-57, NL #15, RS #8, RA #16
The Reds stormed out of the gate and have been the surprise to team in the division. Unfortunately, they have fallen a bit back to earth and are still vulnerable to the Expos and Cubs. (I know, meh) The Cubs and Expos have performed below expectations to this point but are still in striking distance. As expected, the Brewers have been a non-factor in the playoff race.
NL East Predictions
1. Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
2. Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14
NL East Mid-Season
1. Washington D.C. Nationals: 63-28, NL #2, RS #1, RA #4
2. Philadelphia Phillies: 58-33, NL #3, RS #4, RA #2
3. New York Mets: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #14, RA #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #9, RA #14
The Nationals and Phillies have been pretty close to what was expected from them. The Nationals have gotten a big boost from the MVP-like first half of Hayes Swann and his unfortunate injury may knock them down a peg. The Mets young pitching looks to be as good as expected so if this team can find some bats in future seasons, they can start playing in October. The Pirates have won quite a few close games and have kept their record more respectable than expected, despite their dreadful pitching.
NL South Predictions
1. St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
2. Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
3. Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
4. Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16
NL South Mid-Season
1. Florida Marlins: 44-47, NL #8, RS #10, RA #7
2. St. Louis Cardinals: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #11, RA #6
3. Atlanta Braves: 37-54, NL #14, RS #16, RA #3
4. Houston Astros: 33-58, NL #16, RS #12, RA #15
The NL South remains the weakest division in all of Kinsella, with the under .500 Marlins leading the way with middle of the pack offense and pitching. The Cardinals have been major underachievers at the plate and could still run away with the division if the bats start performing as expected. The Braves have been the most out of balance team in the league as their abysmal offense has consisted of home runs or nothing. (And I guess I was wrong with my previous comment believing that the Braves offense would be better than their ranking suggested.) Their pitchers must be getting very frustrated with their brilliance this season not being supported. The Astros were expected to be at the bottom and have not disappointed.
NL West Predictions
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
2. San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
3. San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13
NL West Mid-Season
1. San Francisco Giants: 66-25, NL #1, RS #2, RA #1
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-41, NL #6, RS #3, RA #10
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #13, RA #13
4. San Diego Padres: 38-53, NL #13, RS #15, RA #12
The Giants are smoking hot and are excelling at every aspect of the game. With a 16 game lead at the break, it sure seems as if their 2nd NL West banner will be going up soon. The D’backs have been very surprising as their ratings indicated they would have a middle of the pack offense and dominant pitching, but reality has shown almost the complete opposite. They are still in great shape for a wild card run, especially if their pitching gets on track. I thought it was pretty funny when I saw that I had the Dodgers hitting and pitching both ranked #13 and now they are #13 in runs scored and runs against. The Padres are having a horrific season at the plate and can almost count themselves out as a result.
AL North Predictions
1. Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
2. Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
3. Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
4. Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16
AL North Mid-Season
1. Detroit Tigers: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #9, RA #6
2. Minnesota Twins: 44-47, AL #9, RS #4, RA #11
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 41-50, AL #12, RS #8, RA #15
4. Chicago White Sox: 39-52, AL #13T, RS #14, RA #13
The Tigers have exceeded expectations this season, but just can’t seem to pull away in the AL’s weakest division. The Minnesota Twins seem to annually fall short of my expectations for them, yet still remain in striking distance of another division title. The Blue Jays offense has been decent, but the pitching has been horrid with rookie Sidney Wells as the only bright spot. The White Sox have been much better this season as they can eclipse last season’s win total very soon.
AL East Predictions
1. New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
2. Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
3. Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
4. Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14
AL East Mid-Season
1. New York Yankees: 56-35, AL #2, RS #2, RA #2
2. Boston Red Sox: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #12, RA #7
3. Cleveland Indians: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #7, RA #10
4. Baltimore Orioles: 35-56, AL #15, RS #10, RA #16
The Yankees have been pretty close to their predicted results and it’s only their poor luck in 1-run games (8-15) that is keeping them from putting away the division. The Red Sox are in the thick of the wild card race and have performed pretty close to expectations. Meanwhile the Indians have also performed very close to their expectations, but unfortunately it hasn’t resulted in similar numbers in the W-L columns. Not surprisingly, the Orioles are pretty much done.
AL South Predictions
1. Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
2. Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
4. Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15
AL South Mid-Season
1. Texas Rangers: 61-30, AL #1, RS #1, RA #8
2. Charlotte Knights: 46-45, AL #8, RS #5, RA #9
3. Kansas City Royals: 39-52, AL #14T, RS #15, RA #12
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 23-68, AL #16, RS #16, RA #14
The Rangers have been every bit as good as expected with a very scary team of young sluggers. The Knights have only been slightly below expectations for offense and pitching performance, but their record has them in the middle of the pack. I expect a better W-L record in the 2nd half that will see them challenge for a wild card. The Royals and Rays are both relatively devoid of ML talent and have a few seasons of rebuilding ahead.
AL West Predictions
1. Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
2. Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
3. Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
4. Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12
AL West Mid-Season
1T. Seattle Mariners: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #13, RA #1
1T. Oakland Athletics: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #6, RA #5
3. Portland Beavers: 50-41, AL #5, RS #3, RA #4
4. Anaheim Angels: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #11, RA #3
The Mariners pitching has been spectacular and has carried their weak offense and made them the division’s surprise team. Oakland and Portland have had more balanced attacks this season and neither is that much of a surprise to be in the thick of the playoff race. In the tight three-team struggle, Portland has to be the favorites to take it down and it will be interesting to see if Seattle’s weak offense will allow them to stay in the race. The most disappointing team of the season would have to be the AL’s winningest franchise, the Anaheim Angels. Their pitching has been great as expected but their offense has been nothing but Travis Murphy, who is having a spectacular season.
Season 6 Power Rankings Poll #1 Results
1. Texas Rangers - 20 votes out of 20 participants
2t. San Francisco Giants - 18
2t. Washington DC Nationals - 18
4. New York Yankees - 15
5. Cincinnati Reds - 11
6t. Philadelphia Phillies - 4
6t. Portland Beavers - 4
8t. Arizona Diamondbacks - 2
8t. Detroit Tigers - 2
8t. Montreal Expos - 2
11t. Boston Red Sox - 1
11t. Charlotte Knights - 1
11t. Seattle Mariners - 1
2t. San Francisco Giants - 18
2t. Washington DC Nationals - 18
4. New York Yankees - 15
5. Cincinnati Reds - 11
6t. Philadelphia Phillies - 4
6t. Portland Beavers - 4
8t. Arizona Diamondbacks - 2
8t. Detroit Tigers - 2
8t. Montreal Expos - 2
11t. Boston Red Sox - 1
11t. Charlotte Knights - 1
11t. Seattle Mariners - 1
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Season 6 ALCS Poll Results
The 22 responders to this poll seem to believe that we will be seeing a World Series rematch as the defending champion Yankees were the big vote leaders with 15. Here are the results:
1. New York Yankees - 15 votes
2. Charlotte Knights, Portland Beavers, Texas Rangers - 5
5. Anaheim Angels - 4
6. Boston Red Sox - 3
7. Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays -1
1. New York Yankees - 15 votes
2. Charlotte Knights, Portland Beavers, Texas Rangers - 5
5. Anaheim Angels - 4
6. Boston Red Sox - 3
7. Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays -1
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Season 6 NLCS Poll Results
Our poll of league members on their picks for the NLCS had 24 responses and resulted in some clear favorites with 75% of the votes picking the Phillies to make their 5th NLCS. Here are the results:
1. Philadelphia Phillies - 18 votes
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 10
3. Montreal Expos - 6
4. Chicago Cubs - 4
5. Florida Marlins, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals - 2
8. Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres - 1
1. Philadelphia Phillies - 18 votes
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 10
3. Montreal Expos - 6
4. Chicago Cubs - 4
5. Florida Marlins, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals - 2
8. Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres - 1
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Season 6 Preview
These were compiled utilizing hitting and pitching formulas that I have been developing over the course of my HBD career and that I use each season to expedite my amateur draft ranking. They are completely based off of the current ML rosters as I have no idea who is going to be brought up 20+ days into the season. I am not going to reveal any of the actual formulas or the numbers obtained but merely the rankings relative to league. With the hitting results, I definitely see room for some improvement as there is no accounting for order in the lineup as the top of the order is going to see more plate appearances, so a top heavy lineup, like Atlanta, is going to score more poorly with my current system than they will probably perform. For deriving the pitching rankings, I used a projected rotation and the top three relief pitchers. I only used three relief pitchers as I believed that the vast majority of games in which the bullpen can help the team win will be determined by those 3 best where as the rest are merely innings eaters.
Playoff Teams in Bold
NL North
Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15
The Cubbies look very improved at the plate and with their terrific pitching staff are the favorites to dethrone the Expos. The Expos are a well-balanced team and will be fighting with the Cubs down to the wire for the division and a first round bye. The Reds slide at the end of last season looks to continue into this season as the team got weaker this offseason. The Brewers have a shot to get out of the cellar this season provided their weak pitching can hold some of the leads that their decent offense is going to give them.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14
The 2-time defending NL Champs are once again this season’s NL favorite with the league’s most potent offense and one of the best pitching staffs. The Nationals have the talent to again take the division title if the Phillies falter with their nicely balanced team. The Mets seem to be right on the verge of breaking through into the NL playoffs as their pitching staff is definitely ready for prime time. The Pirates appear to be headed for a long season with little to look forward to as the team has a few stars surrounded by mediocre ML players.
NL South
St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16
The St. Louis Cardinals appear to have the talent needed to breakthrough with their first ever playoff appearance in by far the weakest division in all of Kinsella. The Big Three Sluggers in Atlanta have their work cut out for them as the rest of the lineup offers very little support and the Braves pitching staff is middle of the pack. The Marlins offense is abysmal and the Marlin pitching is not good enough to win many games without good run support. The Astros remodeling project is still in progress as previous management left a lot of holes in this organization that require filling.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13
The Diamondbacks are the favorites to regain their hold on the division with the strongest pitching staff in the NL. The Giants will be hanging right with them all season long with their more balanced team. The Padres will not be far behind as the NL West looks to remain one of the most competitive in the league. The Dodgers, once again under new management, have yet to retain an ownership group long enough to develop and implement any kind of long term plan. Hopefully, the current ownership will finally be able to bring stability to the franchise.
AL North
Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16
The Twins are big favorites to retain their hold on the AL North with good hitting and pitching that should allow them to win by a much larger margin than last season. The Blue Jays have some good young pieces, but have not quite worked themselves into a winning team just yet. The Tigers look like they will be taking a step back after last season’s near miss as both their hitting and pitching are in the lower half of the league. The White Sox should win a few more games this time, but it seems impossible for them to be any worse.
AL East
New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14
The defending World Series Champs return everyone who contributed to last season’s title run and their active offseason makes them heavy favorites to repeat as AL East champs. The Tribe has been slowly developing a good young franchise and with a few veteran acquisitions look like they will be competing for a wild card. The Red Sox have a much-improved pitching staff that should be one of the better groups in the league and will also help them to be active in the wild card chase. The Orioles, with their very active trading over the past few seasons, seem to have gotten themselves back where they started, at the bottom of the AL East.
AL South
Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15
The Rangers have assembled one of the strongest teams in the AL and are a good bet to take their first AL South title and a first round bye. The Knights will be right on their heels all season as they look to make what would surprisingly be (considering how good they have been every season) only their 2nd playoff appearance. The Royals have entered rebuilding mode and have very little scoring ability, which will not please their pitchers who are actually still one of the better staffs, despite the loss of Rivera. The Rays complete overhaul is still a work in progress as the only team they will compete with is Chicago for AL worst.
AL West
Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12
The Angels' offense has weakened a bit since last season but the impressive pitching staff make a return to the AL West penthouse seem likely after the two season hiatus. The Beaver pitching staff have always statistically been huge beneficiaries of PGE park, but it is definitely the offense that is going to drive this team to another playoff berth. The Oakland Athletics were one of last season’s more improved teams who appear very close to earning a playoff spot and look to be serious challengers for the 2nd wild card. Unfortunately, the Mariners appear to be mired in mediocrity this season as neither the offense nor pitching appear to be anything more than below average units.
Playoff Teams in Bold
NL North
Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15
The Cubbies look very improved at the plate and with their terrific pitching staff are the favorites to dethrone the Expos. The Expos are a well-balanced team and will be fighting with the Cubs down to the wire for the division and a first round bye. The Reds slide at the end of last season looks to continue into this season as the team got weaker this offseason. The Brewers have a shot to get out of the cellar this season provided their weak pitching can hold some of the leads that their decent offense is going to give them.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14
The 2-time defending NL Champs are once again this season’s NL favorite with the league’s most potent offense and one of the best pitching staffs. The Nationals have the talent to again take the division title if the Phillies falter with their nicely balanced team. The Mets seem to be right on the verge of breaking through into the NL playoffs as their pitching staff is definitely ready for prime time. The Pirates appear to be headed for a long season with little to look forward to as the team has a few stars surrounded by mediocre ML players.
NL South
St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16
The St. Louis Cardinals appear to have the talent needed to breakthrough with their first ever playoff appearance in by far the weakest division in all of Kinsella. The Big Three Sluggers in Atlanta have their work cut out for them as the rest of the lineup offers very little support and the Braves pitching staff is middle of the pack. The Marlins offense is abysmal and the Marlin pitching is not good enough to win many games without good run support. The Astros remodeling project is still in progress as previous management left a lot of holes in this organization that require filling.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13
The Diamondbacks are the favorites to regain their hold on the division with the strongest pitching staff in the NL. The Giants will be hanging right with them all season long with their more balanced team. The Padres will not be far behind as the NL West looks to remain one of the most competitive in the league. The Dodgers, once again under new management, have yet to retain an ownership group long enough to develop and implement any kind of long term plan. Hopefully, the current ownership will finally be able to bring stability to the franchise.
AL North
Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16
The Twins are big favorites to retain their hold on the AL North with good hitting and pitching that should allow them to win by a much larger margin than last season. The Blue Jays have some good young pieces, but have not quite worked themselves into a winning team just yet. The Tigers look like they will be taking a step back after last season’s near miss as both their hitting and pitching are in the lower half of the league. The White Sox should win a few more games this time, but it seems impossible for them to be any worse.
AL East
New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14
The defending World Series Champs return everyone who contributed to last season’s title run and their active offseason makes them heavy favorites to repeat as AL East champs. The Tribe has been slowly developing a good young franchise and with a few veteran acquisitions look like they will be competing for a wild card. The Red Sox have a much-improved pitching staff that should be one of the better groups in the league and will also help them to be active in the wild card chase. The Orioles, with their very active trading over the past few seasons, seem to have gotten themselves back where they started, at the bottom of the AL East.
AL South
Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15
The Rangers have assembled one of the strongest teams in the AL and are a good bet to take their first AL South title and a first round bye. The Knights will be right on their heels all season as they look to make what would surprisingly be (considering how good they have been every season) only their 2nd playoff appearance. The Royals have entered rebuilding mode and have very little scoring ability, which will not please their pitchers who are actually still one of the better staffs, despite the loss of Rivera. The Rays complete overhaul is still a work in progress as the only team they will compete with is Chicago for AL worst.
AL West
Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12
The Angels' offense has weakened a bit since last season but the impressive pitching staff make a return to the AL West penthouse seem likely after the two season hiatus. The Beaver pitching staff have always statistically been huge beneficiaries of PGE park, but it is definitely the offense that is going to drive this team to another playoff berth. The Oakland Athletics were one of last season’s more improved teams who appear very close to earning a playoff spot and look to be serious challengers for the 2nd wild card. Unfortunately, the Mariners appear to be mired in mediocrity this season as neither the offense nor pitching appear to be anything more than below average units.
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