My success for NL forecasts has not been as successful as for the AL, but with 3 of the 6 playoff teams accurately projected, it's still decent. Here is what the numbers gave me:
NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (1): Strength - SP
2. Montreal Expos: Strength - RP
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Weakness - Hit
4. Cincinnati Reds: Weakness - SP, RP
After this result, either my entire ranking system is crap, or the Reds currently have the world's best record through the use of smoke and mirrors. The Cubs once again look great on paper and then do not fail to dissappoint on the field. The Expos look to be in the wildcard hunt, but should fall short.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3): Strength - Hit, RP
2. New York Mets (5): Strength - SP, RP
3. Washington DC Nationals (6): Strength - RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Weakness - RP
The East looks like the powerhouse division of the National League, with the aging Phillies, who are having another slow start this season, just barely edging out the young Mets. The Nats look to defend their NL championship via the wildcard this season. The Pirates look improved, but still have a long ways to go to get out of the cellar of this stacked division.
NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (2): Strength - Hit, SP; Weakness - RP
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Houston Astros: Weakness - SP
4. Florida Marlins: Weakness - Hit
To this point, the Cards have been the southern Cubs, with an impressive looking squad that comes up short. The Braves continue to ride on Dee Dee's back and will fight with the Cards deep into the season. The Astros look improved, but haven't quite put enough pieces together yet to compete. The Marlins have quite possibly the most anemic offense yet to be assembled in this world.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (4): Strength - Hit, RP
2. San Diego Padres: Strength - Hit; Weakness - SP
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Strength - SP; Weakness - Hit
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Weakness - Hit, SP, RP
By the end of this season, the Giants should coast to another division title as none of their division competitors compare to their talent. The Padres and Diamondbacks could remain in striking distance of the wildcard late into the season, while the Dodgers are in the middle of a major overhaul.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
Season 8 AL Forecast
Yes, I know we are 25% underway with the season, but I have calculated the numbers just as I have in previous seasons. After correctly predicting 5 of the 6 AL playoff teams last season, I hope you still find my "forecast" to be an interesting read. Besides predicted finish and playoff seed, I also show the Top 4 and Bottom 4 teams in three categories (Hit, SP, RP).
AL North
1. Minnesota Twins (4) - Strength: RP
2. Detroit Tigers - Strength: SP, RP
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
In what was actually a very surprising result to me considering the player movement that has occurred over the past two seasons with the top 3 teams, the Twins narrowly edged out the defending champion Tigers and the near-miss wildcard Blue Jays.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Hit, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians - Strength: SP
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Hit
On paper, the Yankees again appear to be the dominant team in this division, though it looks as though the Indians are starting to close the gap as their predicted finish is just barely out of the wildcard as the 7th best in the AL.
AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Hit, SP
2. Charlotte Knights (6) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
The Rangers should regain the division title this season with the Knights hanging close and making another playoff appearance. The Royals, while once again 3rd, actually look like one of the most improved teams in the AL, especially at the plate where they just missed making the Top 4.
AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (5) - Strength: Hit, RP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Hit, Weakness: SP, RP
4. Seattle Mariners - Weakness: Hit, RP
The Angels have the top team with a #5 ranking in all three categories, while Oakland and Portland look to be in the playoff hunt.
AL North
1. Minnesota Twins (4) - Strength: RP
2. Detroit Tigers - Strength: SP, RP
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
In what was actually a very surprising result to me considering the player movement that has occurred over the past two seasons with the top 3 teams, the Twins narrowly edged out the defending champion Tigers and the near-miss wildcard Blue Jays.
AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Hit, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians - Strength: SP
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Hit
On paper, the Yankees again appear to be the dominant team in this division, though it looks as though the Indians are starting to close the gap as their predicted finish is just barely out of the wildcard as the 7th best in the AL.
AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Hit, SP
2. Charlotte Knights (6) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP
The Rangers should regain the division title this season with the Knights hanging close and making another playoff appearance. The Royals, while once again 3rd, actually look like one of the most improved teams in the AL, especially at the plate where they just missed making the Top 4.
AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (5) - Strength: Hit, RP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Hit, Weakness: SP, RP
4. Seattle Mariners - Weakness: Hit, RP
The Angels have the top team with a #5 ranking in all three categories, while Oakland and Portland look to be in the playoff hunt.
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