Bribar's mention of a poll concerning our leading home run hitters and who would be the first to reach 500 got me curious about how they projected using the Bill James calculator (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments). That grew to me figuring out the projections for every home run hitter in the world with at least 3 full ML seasons. Here are the results for every player projected to hit 400 or more homeruns with their % probability of reaching 500. (Sorry about the formatting. If anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet to a blog, please let me know.)
Name Team Age Current Projection % Chance 500
Jose Mondesi CHA 28 281 633 97.0
Travis Murphy LAA 25 187 621 88.5
Dee Dee Hutton ATL 26 172 608 82.9
Bartolo Lopez CIN 27 182 570 71.9
Francisco Guillen NY1 26 201 566 72.2
Dee Bolling STL 32 306 563 82.3
Tony Masao CH1 24 166 558 67.2
Al Perez KC 27 196 556 68.4
Bernard Springer SD 28 253 540 66.2
Frank Jorgensen PHI 31 265 530 62.7
Kevin Marte MON 28 183 530 59.3
Orber Julio PIT 31 295 523 61.3
Doug Stewart FLA 23 129 492 47.7
Valerio Guillen NY1 29 218 472 39.9
Pedro Garrido PHI 29 211 471 40.0
Carter Jeffries PHI 32 253 452 30.6
Danny Alexander TOR 31 230 452 32.2
Chad Seabol STL 29 235 451 31.4
Todd Winchester CH2 27 188 448 33.3
Clyde Redmond PIT 27 161 440 32.2
Jose Roque FLA 27 177 435 29.7
Eric Roosevelt ATL 27 152 435 31.2
Benji Palmer NY2 31 229 431 24.4
Sam Kubinski SF 27 148 429 29.9
Harry Tejada CIN 30 214 428 24.8
Darryl Whitaker LAA 29 195 426 25.7
Earl Jorgensen CHA 27 177 425 26.6
Dan Guerrero ATL 32 255 424 19.0
Guy Cunningham NY1 26 154 424 28.5
Mule Benoit PIT 27 135 423 28.8
Miguel Pena MON 26 132 419 27.9
Leon Abbott LA 33 238 417 18.1
Tripp Devereaux CLE 28 171 416 24.5
Del Wilhelm PHI 31 232 414 18.1
Damian Chen DET 26 123 414 27.1
Eric Brumfield DET 28 141 409 24.7
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