Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Poll Results: TB Big FA Winner
As expected, Tampa Bay was deemed the big winner this year in free agency and won the poll with 14 out of the 21 votes. With 2 mysterious "Other" votes, the only other known votes were the 5 of you that would not want to deal with the financial burden of those huge contracts.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
AL South Season 10 Preview
RAYS
Out: RF Cristobal Marquez
In: C Bob Riggs, OF Rex Yearwood, CF Scott Perry, RP Matthew Crosby, SP's Branch Vitiello and Kordell Becker
Impact Rookies: SP Fred Lewis (Sea 7 #1 overall)
Payroll: $90MM
Tampa Bay looks like a super-team on paper, but predictions like that have a way of not working out. Still, you have to think the lineup is better, and the Front 3 of Vitiello, Becker, Lorenzo rivals that of the Mets' Hernandez, Cedeno, Spooneybarger.
RANGERS
Out: RF Jason Walls, SP Davey Molina
In: 1B Vin Benitez, LR Mark Butler
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $68MM
In a bit of a surprise, Texas was a non-factor in free agency. There are many who believe Juan Marrero should've won the MVP last season; as long as he and Sherry Pierre are in Texas, they'll be a playoff contender.
ROYALS
Out: SP Haywood Charles and RP Bill Mouton
In: LF Harry Reid, RF Jason Walls and RP J.P. Morales
Impact Rookies: SP's Armando Taveras (Sea 7 #2 overall) and Sun Wanatabe (Sea 7 IFA - $15.2MM Bonus);
Payroll: $61MM
KC's offense was pretty good last year (6th with 803 runs); add 2 solid COF's and you've got a very dangerous lineup. If their 2 rookie SP's figure it out right away, this team could easily contend.
KNIGHTS
Out: LF Adam Martin
In: none
Impact Rookies: SS Earl Barclay
Payroll: $94MM
The offense is there (5th last season with 816 runs), but the pitching slipped badly last year (from 5th to 13th) and hasn't really been addressed. With their most valuable assets (2B Earl Jorgenson, RF Jose Mondesi, SP Warren Justice) now in their 30's and little help coming from the farm system, Charlotte management may be considering selling.
Sizing Up the Race:
I think this will be a surprisingly close 3-team race, with Tampa Bay, Texas and Kansas City all in playoff contention. Ultimately I think the Rays will win it, but don't be surprised if Texas tops 100 wins again and the Royals get to 95.
Out: RF Cristobal Marquez
In: C Bob Riggs, OF Rex Yearwood, CF Scott Perry, RP Matthew Crosby, SP's Branch Vitiello and Kordell Becker
Impact Rookies: SP Fred Lewis (Sea 7 #1 overall)
Payroll: $90MM
Tampa Bay looks like a super-team on paper, but predictions like that have a way of not working out. Still, you have to think the lineup is better, and the Front 3 of Vitiello, Becker, Lorenzo rivals that of the Mets' Hernandez, Cedeno, Spooneybarger.
RANGERS
Out: RF Jason Walls, SP Davey Molina
In: 1B Vin Benitez, LR Mark Butler
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $68MM
In a bit of a surprise, Texas was a non-factor in free agency. There are many who believe Juan Marrero should've won the MVP last season; as long as he and Sherry Pierre are in Texas, they'll be a playoff contender.
ROYALS
Out: SP Haywood Charles and RP Bill Mouton
In: LF Harry Reid, RF Jason Walls and RP J.P. Morales
Impact Rookies: SP's Armando Taveras (Sea 7 #2 overall) and Sun Wanatabe (Sea 7 IFA - $15.2MM Bonus);
Payroll: $61MM
KC's offense was pretty good last year (6th with 803 runs); add 2 solid COF's and you've got a very dangerous lineup. If their 2 rookie SP's figure it out right away, this team could easily contend.
KNIGHTS
Out: LF Adam Martin
In: none
Impact Rookies: SS Earl Barclay
Payroll: $94MM
The offense is there (5th last season with 816 runs), but the pitching slipped badly last year (from 5th to 13th) and hasn't really been addressed. With their most valuable assets (2B Earl Jorgenson, RF Jose Mondesi, SP Warren Justice) now in their 30's and little help coming from the farm system, Charlotte management may be considering selling.
Sizing Up the Race:
I think this will be a surprisingly close 3-team race, with Tampa Bay, Texas and Kansas City all in playoff contention. Ultimately I think the Rays will win it, but don't be surprised if Texas tops 100 wins again and the Royals get to 95.
AL West Season 10 Preview
ATHLETICS
Out: RP Fernando James, SP Ossie Flynn
In: none
Impact Rookies: 2B Hector Bennett (Sea 5 IFA, $15.3MM bonus), CF Alex Suzuki (Sea 7 IFA, $12MM bonus - still in AAA), SP's Andy Daly (Sea 5 #13 overall - still in AAA) and Mike Gonzalez (Sea 7 IFA, $11.6MM bonus - still in AAA), RP Gerardo Rodriguez (Sea 8 IFA, $$13.8MM bonus - still in AAA).
Payroll: $40MM
Of the 22 players currently on Oakland's ML roster, 14 are home-grown and promoted to the majors in the last 4 years. And there are 4 more good ones in AAA ready to go. They're set to dominate the division for the next 10 years.
ANGELS
Out: CF DaRond Wagner, SP Felipe Tejada, RP's Bennie Chouinard and Jorge Guapo
In: SP's Haywood Charles, Josias Rosado, and Frank Montgomery
Impact Rookies: SP Marty Kelley (Sea 4 #52 OVR), RP Geronimo Ramirez (Sea 4 IFA by CLE, $8.2MM bonus), IF Phil Kojima (Sea 7 IFA, $5.1MM bonus - still in AAA)
Payroll: $67MM
Anaheim has almost completely reworked its starting rotation...it has probably improved a staff that put up a 4.53 ERA last year (8th). The lineup that was 10th with 761 runs last year is back pretty much intact. They could top last year's 74 wins but aren't likely to hang with Oakland this year.
BEAVERS
Out: C Rico Ayala, LF Harry Reid, 3B Justin Griffiths, SP's Rabbit Tracy and Adam Anderson
In: none
Impact Rookies: DH Bobby Raggio (Sea 7 #58 overall), RF Juan Pulido (Sea 3 #132 overall), SP's Davey Aquino (Sea 5 IFA, $9.2MM bonus) and Bryan Karl (Sea 4 #83 overall), C Rick Hall (Sea 5 #31 overall still in AAA).
Payroll: $43MM
Reid's a big loss from LF, but Portland should be able to get a little bump to its offense from the slugging C platoon of Hall and Louie Mercedes, plus DH Raggio. It's an all-out youth movement for an already-young Portland team. If they can get some pitching improvement, they could pass Anaheim for 2nd.
MARINERS
Out: SP Kordell Becker, RP James Hutton
In: C's Nick Gonzalez and Earl Duffy
Impact Rookies: SP Ted Dirks (Sea 7 #20 overall)
Payroll: $87MM
End of the Becker/Hutton era in Seattle...9 All-Star appearances and 2 FOY's out the door, and that's tough to replace. We're likely seeing the beginning of a serious rebuilding effort.
Sizing Up the Race:
This one could be over early. Oakland won by 4 games last year ad has clearly improved way more than the other 3 teams. The only suspense here might be whether Portland's kids can make up 7 games on the Angels and get 2nd. Seattle suffered 2 huge FA hits and is a good bet to bring up the rear this season.
Out: RP Fernando James, SP Ossie Flynn
In: none
Impact Rookies: 2B Hector Bennett (Sea 5 IFA, $15.3MM bonus), CF Alex Suzuki (Sea 7 IFA, $12MM bonus - still in AAA), SP's Andy Daly (Sea 5 #13 overall - still in AAA) and Mike Gonzalez (Sea 7 IFA, $11.6MM bonus - still in AAA), RP Gerardo Rodriguez (Sea 8 IFA, $$13.8MM bonus - still in AAA).
Payroll: $40MM
Of the 22 players currently on Oakland's ML roster, 14 are home-grown and promoted to the majors in the last 4 years. And there are 4 more good ones in AAA ready to go. They're set to dominate the division for the next 10 years.
ANGELS
Out: CF DaRond Wagner, SP Felipe Tejada, RP's Bennie Chouinard and Jorge Guapo
In: SP's Haywood Charles, Josias Rosado, and Frank Montgomery
Impact Rookies: SP Marty Kelley (Sea 4 #52 OVR), RP Geronimo Ramirez (Sea 4 IFA by CLE, $8.2MM bonus), IF Phil Kojima (Sea 7 IFA, $5.1MM bonus - still in AAA)
Payroll: $67MM
Anaheim has almost completely reworked its starting rotation...it has probably improved a staff that put up a 4.53 ERA last year (8th). The lineup that was 10th with 761 runs last year is back pretty much intact. They could top last year's 74 wins but aren't likely to hang with Oakland this year.
BEAVERS
Out: C Rico Ayala, LF Harry Reid, 3B Justin Griffiths, SP's Rabbit Tracy and Adam Anderson
In: none
Impact Rookies: DH Bobby Raggio (Sea 7 #58 overall), RF Juan Pulido (Sea 3 #132 overall), SP's Davey Aquino (Sea 5 IFA, $9.2MM bonus) and Bryan Karl (Sea 4 #83 overall), C Rick Hall (Sea 5 #31 overall still in AAA).
Payroll: $43MM
Reid's a big loss from LF, but Portland should be able to get a little bump to its offense from the slugging C platoon of Hall and Louie Mercedes, plus DH Raggio. It's an all-out youth movement for an already-young Portland team. If they can get some pitching improvement, they could pass Anaheim for 2nd.
MARINERS
Out: SP Kordell Becker, RP James Hutton
In: C's Nick Gonzalez and Earl Duffy
Impact Rookies: SP Ted Dirks (Sea 7 #20 overall)
Payroll: $87MM
End of the Becker/Hutton era in Seattle...9 All-Star appearances and 2 FOY's out the door, and that's tough to replace. We're likely seeing the beginning of a serious rebuilding effort.
Sizing Up the Race:
This one could be over early. Oakland won by 4 games last year ad has clearly improved way more than the other 3 teams. The only suspense here might be whether Portland's kids can make up 7 games on the Angels and get 2nd. Seattle suffered 2 huge FA hits and is a good bet to bring up the rear this season.
NL East Season 10 Preview
METS
Out: RF Dick Lightenberg
In: no notables
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $73MM
Lightenberg will be sorely missed; his replacement, rookie Ted Lombardi, is exactly the kind of player obsoleted by the end of the steroid era. So, a little more pressure on the NL's best pitching staff. Fortunately, they're up to the challenge.
NATIONALS
Out: SS Willie Camacho; C Henry Shuey; RP's Graham Brown, Matthew Crosby, and Homer Flanagan.
In: 1B Raymond Baker, 3B Justin Griffiths, CF Pat Decker, RP's Hector Mendoza and Vic Castillo.
Impact Rookies: SP Les Walker (Sea 6 #30 overall - still in AAA)
Payroll: $70MM
D.C. also re-signed C Enrique Gonzalez and SP/LR Allen Sosa to relatively modest FA deals. Lotta movement...the net is the bullpen is a little shakier, they have 3 3B's, and they're still looking for a SS (Grffiths may get the nod there). They were only 6 back on the Mets last year...should be a tighter race this season.
PHILLIES
Out: 3B Frank Bass, LF Alexander Myers, 1B Pedro Garrido
In: LF Orber Julio, SP Stuart Flynn
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $97MM
The very good staff (4th in ERA at 3.87 last year) is back intact, so it's all about the lineup in Philly. Orber Julio had his best season in years in Season 9; if he can repeat, it'll at least soften the loss of Garrido. 3rd-year men Johnnie Young (OF) and Felipe Oropesa (1B) will have to step up.
PIRATES
Out: LF Orber Julio, RF James Sherman, SP Orlando Guerrero
In: none
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $63MM
Pittsburgh shed 3 veterans to cut payroll and concentrate on rebuilding. They'll rely on a cadre of 2nd-year players to improve, although we could see AAA SP's Danys Lopex and Ozzie Jordan before the season's out.
Sizing Up the Race:
The Mets could possibly back up, but not much. The Nationals and Phillies could both press them, but I think D.C. has done more to improve. Tough to beat the Mets' pitching though...Mets over D.C. in a closer race than last year.
Out: RF Dick Lightenberg
In: no notables
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $73MM
Lightenberg will be sorely missed; his replacement, rookie Ted Lombardi, is exactly the kind of player obsoleted by the end of the steroid era. So, a little more pressure on the NL's best pitching staff. Fortunately, they're up to the challenge.
NATIONALS
Out: SS Willie Camacho; C Henry Shuey; RP's Graham Brown, Matthew Crosby, and Homer Flanagan.
In: 1B Raymond Baker, 3B Justin Griffiths, CF Pat Decker, RP's Hector Mendoza and Vic Castillo.
Impact Rookies: SP Les Walker (Sea 6 #30 overall - still in AAA)
Payroll: $70MM
D.C. also re-signed C Enrique Gonzalez and SP/LR Allen Sosa to relatively modest FA deals. Lotta movement...the net is the bullpen is a little shakier, they have 3 3B's, and they're still looking for a SS (Grffiths may get the nod there). They were only 6 back on the Mets last year...should be a tighter race this season.
PHILLIES
Out: 3B Frank Bass, LF Alexander Myers, 1B Pedro Garrido
In: LF Orber Julio, SP Stuart Flynn
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $97MM
The very good staff (4th in ERA at 3.87 last year) is back intact, so it's all about the lineup in Philly. Orber Julio had his best season in years in Season 9; if he can repeat, it'll at least soften the loss of Garrido. 3rd-year men Johnnie Young (OF) and Felipe Oropesa (1B) will have to step up.
PIRATES
Out: LF Orber Julio, RF James Sherman, SP Orlando Guerrero
In: none
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $63MM
Pittsburgh shed 3 veterans to cut payroll and concentrate on rebuilding. They'll rely on a cadre of 2nd-year players to improve, although we could see AAA SP's Danys Lopex and Ozzie Jordan before the season's out.
Sizing Up the Race:
The Mets could possibly back up, but not much. The Nationals and Phillies could both press them, but I think D.C. has done more to improve. Tough to beat the Mets' pitching though...Mets over D.C. in a closer race than last year.
NL North Season 10 Preview
EXPOS
Out: CF Gordon Scanlan, RP Jonathan Perry
In: CF Trinidad Woodward, RP Derrek Carpenter, RP Grant Snavely
Impact Rookies: None
Payroll: $107MM
Montreal returns essentially the same squad, although Perry's 100+ innings will be missed. Nothing to suggest a dropoff here - they're the favorite to repeat.
REDS
Out: CF Cliff Rivers, RP Howie Voight
In: no notables
Impact Rookies: None
Payroll: $56MM
Retrenching year in Cincy? The offense was 7th last year and Rivers is a big loss (defensively, too).
CUBS
Out: P's Hector Mendoza and Heinie Figueroa
In: SP Davey Molina, CD Gordon Scanlan, RP's Howie Voigt and Graham Brown
Impact Rookies: SP Bruce Thurman (Season 6 #22 overall)
Payroll: $130MM
Chicago took a stretched payroll and stretched it some more. Team ERA was 9th last year - look for a nice improvement. The Cubbies are going all-out to contend and I think they will.
BREWERS
Out: P's Earl Patterson (age 42), Eli Lira (age 37), J.P. Morales; RF Duke Beckett
In: SP's Del Perron and Willie Hermanson, RP Jonathan Perry, C Patrick Romero, 1B Valerio Guillen
Impact Rookies: 2B Alex Almanzar (Sea 3 IFA - $11MM by NYY), CF Bruce Lewis (Sea 6 #3 overall), RF Bobby Simmons (Sea 7 #3 overall)
Payroll: $77MM
Perhaps the biggest off-season in the NL. Milwaukee went for moderately-priced, 2 and 3-year FA deals to supplement their prospect influx. Can't see a huge improvement in their pitching, but they could pass last year's 674 runs by Game 120.
Sizing Up the Race:
The Cubbies will make a strong run, but Montreal holds on to win the division. Cincy slides enough for the surging Brewers to take 3rd.
Out: CF Gordon Scanlan, RP Jonathan Perry
In: CF Trinidad Woodward, RP Derrek Carpenter, RP Grant Snavely
Impact Rookies: None
Payroll: $107MM
Montreal returns essentially the same squad, although Perry's 100+ innings will be missed. Nothing to suggest a dropoff here - they're the favorite to repeat.
REDS
Out: CF Cliff Rivers, RP Howie Voight
In: no notables
Impact Rookies: None
Payroll: $56MM
Retrenching year in Cincy? The offense was 7th last year and Rivers is a big loss (defensively, too).
CUBS
Out: P's Hector Mendoza and Heinie Figueroa
In: SP Davey Molina, CD Gordon Scanlan, RP's Howie Voigt and Graham Brown
Impact Rookies: SP Bruce Thurman (Season 6 #22 overall)
Payroll: $130MM
Chicago took a stretched payroll and stretched it some more. Team ERA was 9th last year - look for a nice improvement. The Cubbies are going all-out to contend and I think they will.
BREWERS
Out: P's Earl Patterson (age 42), Eli Lira (age 37), J.P. Morales; RF Duke Beckett
In: SP's Del Perron and Willie Hermanson, RP Jonathan Perry, C Patrick Romero, 1B Valerio Guillen
Impact Rookies: 2B Alex Almanzar (Sea 3 IFA - $11MM by NYY), CF Bruce Lewis (Sea 6 #3 overall), RF Bobby Simmons (Sea 7 #3 overall)
Payroll: $77MM
Perhaps the biggest off-season in the NL. Milwaukee went for moderately-priced, 2 and 3-year FA deals to supplement their prospect influx. Can't see a huge improvement in their pitching, but they could pass last year's 674 runs by Game 120.
Sizing Up the Race:
The Cubbies will make a strong run, but Montreal holds on to win the division. Cincy slides enough for the surging Brewers to take 3rd.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Free Agency Part 2
The Rays made the big headlines, but there was plenty of other action on the free agency front. This is now officially the biggest free agency class in Kinsella history, with 35 (so far) A and B free agents signing.
RAYS - $240MM over the next 5 years for pitchers Vitiello, Becker and Crosby. What'd they buy? Favorite status, a 5-year window for multiple WS titles, and a boatload of budget problems starting in Season 13. Certainly no bargains here, but you gotta give these signings a thumbs up for boldness.
DODGERS - LA jumped in during the last cycle and fished out some bargains. Bryan Reed (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2years) can hit for sure...are we seeing a trend to low-PC C's, or is he going to be a bad-catch, good-throw 1B? Duke Beckett and Dick Lightenberg (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2 years) form a perfect RF platoon. Happy Blume (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2 years) is the ideal "big-ballpark" 100-inning setup reliever.
ORIOLES - Baltimore went both big and budget. First, they shelled out $13.5 per for 4 years for James Hutton, then grabbed slugger Jim Thomas (Bargain Signing - $2.75/2 years). Hutton has been closing for Seattle, but may find a new role as a 120+ inning setup man. Thomas likely takes over in RF.
PADRES - San Diego added a pair of sinkerballing RP's in Gary King (nice touch with the ultra front end-loaded contract for trade purposes) and Fernando James ($3.9MM/2 years).
TWINS - Minnesota picked up a nice C in Morgan Stephenson (Bargain Signing - $4.1MM/2 years) and a budget SP in Rabbit Tracy ($3.0MM/2years).
BREWERS - Milwaukee continued to add pieces with setup man Jonathan Perry. Not quite a bargain at an average of $6.8 for 2 years, he'll still be a welcome addition to an improving Brewers team.
ROYALS - KC corralled perhaps the best hitter of free agency's 2nd half, LF Harry Reid (4 years, $7.1MM with a $1MM bonus). KC is another team on the rise with multiple impact rookies arriving this year.
RAYS - $240MM over the next 5 years for pitchers Vitiello, Becker and Crosby. What'd they buy? Favorite status, a 5-year window for multiple WS titles, and a boatload of budget problems starting in Season 13. Certainly no bargains here, but you gotta give these signings a thumbs up for boldness.
DODGERS - LA jumped in during the last cycle and fished out some bargains. Bryan Reed (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2years) can hit for sure...are we seeing a trend to low-PC C's, or is he going to be a bad-catch, good-throw 1B? Duke Beckett and Dick Lightenberg (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2 years) form a perfect RF platoon. Happy Blume (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2 years) is the ideal "big-ballpark" 100-inning setup reliever.
ORIOLES - Baltimore went both big and budget. First, they shelled out $13.5 per for 4 years for James Hutton, then grabbed slugger Jim Thomas (Bargain Signing - $2.75/2 years). Hutton has been closing for Seattle, but may find a new role as a 120+ inning setup man. Thomas likely takes over in RF.
PADRES - San Diego added a pair of sinkerballing RP's in Gary King (nice touch with the ultra front end-loaded contract for trade purposes) and Fernando James ($3.9MM/2 years).
TWINS - Minnesota picked up a nice C in Morgan Stephenson (Bargain Signing - $4.1MM/2 years) and a budget SP in Rabbit Tracy ($3.0MM/2years).
BREWERS - Milwaukee continued to add pieces with setup man Jonathan Perry. Not quite a bargain at an average of $6.8 for 2 years, he'll still be a welcome addition to an improving Brewers team.
ROYALS - KC corralled perhaps the best hitter of free agency's 2nd half, LF Harry Reid (4 years, $7.1MM with a $1MM bonus). KC is another team on the rise with multiple impact rookies arriving this year.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Early Free Agency News
The Braves and Cubs dominated early free agency, which has seen some big numbers and big bargains.
BRAVES - Atlanta has been the big spender so far, dishing out $187MM. Thumbs up on the Cliff Rivers contract - at $13.4MM a year it's no bargain but offense like that just doesn't show up in CF very often. If Chad Seabol's Season 9 was just a down year, his $9.6MM a year will be OK; otherwise the Braves are paying him about $480K per homer. I don't know if they could've landed a better pitcher than Orlando Guerrero, but they could've gotten something similar for way less $$ - they did with Ramiro Diaz (Bargain Signing). SS Willie Camacho is a nice complimentary signing.
CUBS - Chicago concentrated on the bullpen, getting Howie Voigt, Graham Brown and Phillip Munson. They also landed a starter - Davey Molina (Bargain Signing - 1 year at 5.2) - and a CF - Gordon Scanlan - who finally gets paid after 3 straight All-Star appearances.
BREWERS - Watch out for Milwaukee this year. They add former Yankees Patrick Romero and Valerio Guillen (Bargain Signing) to a lineup that now includes two former #3 overall picks (CF Bruce Lewis and RF Bobby Simmons). Willie Hermanson isn't bad at $5.7MM but I think they could've done better.
INDIANS - AL gets in on the action with a trio of nice signings by Cleveland. Pedro Garrido was the big name (and the big contract at $9MM per). Some people might argue his power rating will go down a lot over 5 years...so what? He'll still be a .300 hitter at age 36 and power just ain't what it used to be. They also got a couple of nice deals on SP's: Stephen Fischer at $6.2/2 years and Buddy Truman at $5.8/5 years.
NATIONALS - D.C. has been the most effective bargain-hunter so far. They started with some familiar talent - C Enrique Gonzales (MEGA-BARGAIN at $4MM/ 1 year) and SP/LR Allen Sosa (MEGA-BARGAIN at $5.2/4 years). Then they added some pop in CF with Pat Decker ($5.28MM/4 years), and took a shot at coaxing 1 more year out of Vic Castillo for $700K.
The drama builds on Vitiello and Becker. Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City, and Detroit are widely believed to be in the bidding; Anaheim, D.C., the White Sox and Florida are believed by some to be active in the sweepstakes; and a few observers think San Diego, Minnesota, Portland and Los Angeles are masquerading as rebuilders and quietly hoping to snare an ace SP.
BRAVES - Atlanta has been the big spender so far, dishing out $187MM. Thumbs up on the Cliff Rivers contract - at $13.4MM a year it's no bargain but offense like that just doesn't show up in CF very often. If Chad Seabol's Season 9 was just a down year, his $9.6MM a year will be OK; otherwise the Braves are paying him about $480K per homer. I don't know if they could've landed a better pitcher than Orlando Guerrero, but they could've gotten something similar for way less $$ - they did with Ramiro Diaz (Bargain Signing). SS Willie Camacho is a nice complimentary signing.
CUBS - Chicago concentrated on the bullpen, getting Howie Voigt, Graham Brown and Phillip Munson. They also landed a starter - Davey Molina (Bargain Signing - 1 year at 5.2) - and a CF - Gordon Scanlan - who finally gets paid after 3 straight All-Star appearances.
BREWERS - Watch out for Milwaukee this year. They add former Yankees Patrick Romero and Valerio Guillen (Bargain Signing) to a lineup that now includes two former #3 overall picks (CF Bruce Lewis and RF Bobby Simmons). Willie Hermanson isn't bad at $5.7MM but I think they could've done better.
INDIANS - AL gets in on the action with a trio of nice signings by Cleveland. Pedro Garrido was the big name (and the big contract at $9MM per). Some people might argue his power rating will go down a lot over 5 years...so what? He'll still be a .300 hitter at age 36 and power just ain't what it used to be. They also got a couple of nice deals on SP's: Stephen Fischer at $6.2/2 years and Buddy Truman at $5.8/5 years.
NATIONALS - D.C. has been the most effective bargain-hunter so far. They started with some familiar talent - C Enrique Gonzales (MEGA-BARGAIN at $4MM/ 1 year) and SP/LR Allen Sosa (MEGA-BARGAIN at $5.2/4 years). Then they added some pop in CF with Pat Decker ($5.28MM/4 years), and took a shot at coaxing 1 more year out of Vic Castillo for $700K.
The drama builds on Vitiello and Becker. Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City, and Detroit are widely believed to be in the bidding; Anaheim, D.C., the White Sox and Florida are believed by some to be active in the sweepstakes; and a few observers think San Diego, Minnesota, Portland and Los Angeles are masquerading as rebuilders and quietly hoping to snare an ace SP.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Free Agency By The Numbers
With free agency underway and the general consensus that this is a "big free agent class", thought I'd do a little research to see what the numbers say.
7 - smallest number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella (Season 5)
18.7 - average number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella
34- largest number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella (Season 3)
47 - number of A/B free agents available this year (at least). 22 pitchers, 25 postion players
Clearly, Season 5 was a real drought. I wasn't here in Season 3, but my first year in Field of Dreams, we had 35 A/B free agents and that was a blast. My team signed nearly an entire pitching staff in FA, including 3 starters who were in CY contention all year and an overpaid RP who turned in about a 5.50 ERA.
With 47 A/B's available, it looks like a slam dunk we'll break our record of 34.
I'm not sure what this says about the prices at the top end, but I'll bet it just about guarantees there will be some bargains to be had.
Probably also means a bigger shakeup in "the order of things" is possible this year than in most.
7 - smallest number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella (Season 5)
18.7 - average number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella
34- largest number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella (Season 3)
47 - number of A/B free agents available this year (at least). 22 pitchers, 25 postion players
Clearly, Season 5 was a real drought. I wasn't here in Season 3, but my first year in Field of Dreams, we had 35 A/B free agents and that was a blast. My team signed nearly an entire pitching staff in FA, including 3 starters who were in CY contention all year and an overpaid RP who turned in about a 5.50 ERA.
With 47 A/B's available, it looks like a slam dunk we'll break our record of 34.
I'm not sure what this says about the prices at the top end, but I'll bet it just about guarantees there will be some bargains to be had.
Probably also means a bigger shakeup in "the order of things" is possible this year than in most.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Winter Meetings Preview
Speculation abounds as the Kinsella Winter Meetings anticipate the richest free-agent crop in league history.
Rumors are flying furiously as to the next destinations for big names Branch Vitiello, Kordell Becker, and reigning NL MVP Pedro Garrido: Atlanta, Montreal, Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Mets, Detroit and Arizona are believed to be readying hefty bids, but there are probably a dozen other teams that could present tempting offers to those superstars.
Perhaps more remarkable about this free-agent class is its depth: just about every postion has some stars or near-stars (think Chad Seabol, Cliff Rivers, Matthew Crosby, Valerio Guillen), plenty of solid starters (think Fernando James, Orlando Guerrero, Jason Walls, Stump Cambridge), sterling defenders (Ignacio Solano, Nicholas Haynes), and declining vets who could play pivotal roles with contenders (think Hayes Swann, Alfredo Johnson, Adam Martin).
Meanwhile, Houston and Tampa Bay pulled off the season's first trade:
Houston gets:
ML RF Cristobal Marquez
AA SS D'Angelo Romero
AAA IF Geoffrey Kelly
Sources say that Romero was the key figure for Houston, a Season 9 IFA. Marquez, who signed a 5-year FA contract with the Rays last year, is a steady if not hugely prolific run producer (21-36 HR's and driving in 78-99 runs in all 7 of his ML seasons). Kelly doesn't project to be a great hitter, but his defense at both 2B and 3B could mean a solid major league career.
Tampa Bay gets:
ML C Bob Riggs
ML OF Rex Yearwood
AA RP Mike Person
The Rays wanted to get more left-handed and they did with this trade. Riggs is one of the league's best-hitting C's; he'll get most of Tampa Bay's catcher innings. Yearwood will see ample playing time against RHP at RF, LF, DH and 1B. Person has a long way to go but with time could be a very good setup reliever.
Rumors are flying furiously as to the next destinations for big names Branch Vitiello, Kordell Becker, and reigning NL MVP Pedro Garrido: Atlanta, Montreal, Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Mets, Detroit and Arizona are believed to be readying hefty bids, but there are probably a dozen other teams that could present tempting offers to those superstars.
Perhaps more remarkable about this free-agent class is its depth: just about every postion has some stars or near-stars (think Chad Seabol, Cliff Rivers, Matthew Crosby, Valerio Guillen), plenty of solid starters (think Fernando James, Orlando Guerrero, Jason Walls, Stump Cambridge), sterling defenders (Ignacio Solano, Nicholas Haynes), and declining vets who could play pivotal roles with contenders (think Hayes Swann, Alfredo Johnson, Adam Martin).
Meanwhile, Houston and Tampa Bay pulled off the season's first trade:
Houston gets:
ML RF Cristobal Marquez
AA SS D'Angelo Romero
AAA IF Geoffrey Kelly
Sources say that Romero was the key figure for Houston, a Season 9 IFA. Marquez, who signed a 5-year FA contract with the Rays last year, is a steady if not hugely prolific run producer (21-36 HR's and driving in 78-99 runs in all 7 of his ML seasons). Kelly doesn't project to be a great hitter, but his defense at both 2B and 3B could mean a solid major league career.
Tampa Bay gets:
ML C Bob Riggs
ML OF Rex Yearwood
AA RP Mike Person
The Rays wanted to get more left-handed and they did with this trade. Riggs is one of the league's best-hitting C's; he'll get most of Tampa Bay's catcher innings. Yearwood will see ample playing time against RHP at RF, LF, DH and 1B. Person has a long way to go but with time could be a very good setup reliever.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Met's Ace Hernandez: HOF Bound?
Kinsella has long been home to fine pitchers such as Darren Chance, Felipe Tejada, Ozzie Percival, Patrick Rivera, and Jeff Bollea, but one of the league’s top young guns may have established a new standard for single season excellence.
The New York Mets’ Walt Hernandez, after leading his club to a World Series appearance in Season Eight and inking a five-year, 44 million dollar deal during the offseason, turned in arguably the finest season any Kinsella pitcher has ever had.
The 29 year-old lefty posted a 21-4 record in 29 starts and established a new all-time low ERA of 1.52, a mark nearly .5 better than the previous record held by Pittsburgh’s Orlando Guerrero. Hernandez fanned 239 opposing batters, the second highest single-season total ever; walked just 62 hitters and held opponents to a .179 batting average against. His WHIP of .94 was also good enough for second all-time, only bested by his Season Seven tally of .94.
And what of those four losses? Three came against eventual playoff squads (Montreal, San Francisco, and Atlanta) and all four opponents were held to three earned runs or less. In fact, Hernandez was so dominant that no team scored more than three earned runs against him all season and 21 of his 29 outings were quality starts.
So where does the Mets’ lefty rank among all-time single season efforts?
Darren Chance, Season Five, Philadelphia Phillies
In his first full season with the Phillies Chance was nearly unhittable, posting a 17-7 mark in 34 starts. The then 34 year-old finished the season with a 2.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while fanning 209 and walking just 61.
Felipe Tejada, Season Two, Arizona Diamondbacks
During the heart of the steroid era no National League pitcher was more feared than Tejada, who won 22 games for the D-Backs in Season Two. Kinsella’s career leader in complete games finished 11 of his 35 starts that year, posting a 2.11 ERA and 22 wins while holding opposing batters to a paltry .191 batting average. Tejada struck out a career-high 219 batters that season and posted a WHIP of 1.00.
Patrick Rivera, Season Seven, New York Yankees
A year after spurning Kansas City for the bright lights and big money of New York City, Rivera dominated the American League en route to his only Cy Young award. He won 24 games for the eventual World Champs while posting a 2.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 221 strikeouts in 34 starts.
Ozzie Percival, Season Six, New York Yankees
Following a midseason trade from Washington during Season Five, Percival embarked on one of the most prolific stretches in Kinsella history, winning 36 games and posting a 2.55 ERA over the next year and a half. During Season Six, however, the right-hander put up his best effort. In that season he posted a 2.52 ERA and a 24-3 record in 221 innings, but did walk a career-high 79 batters and finish with a pedestrian 146 strikeouts.
Of course there are other hurlers that deserve recognition for seasons of excellence throughout the history of Kinsella, but each of the four above have long been recognized as the premier talent at the position. The point is not that Walt Hernandez has earned a right to be mentioned with them, but that it would be impossible not to mention him before them. Prognosticators had long labeled the lefty as the future, yet few would have predicted this level of dominance.
Here are Hernandez’ career totals through 184 starts, with his career rank in parentheses:
76 Wins (NR)
2.58 ERA (1)
1.05 WHIP (1)
8.88 K/9 (1)
.205 OAV (1)
2.71 OBP (1)
3.08 SLG (1)
The New York Mets’ Walt Hernandez, after leading his club to a World Series appearance in Season Eight and inking a five-year, 44 million dollar deal during the offseason, turned in arguably the finest season any Kinsella pitcher has ever had.
The 29 year-old lefty posted a 21-4 record in 29 starts and established a new all-time low ERA of 1.52, a mark nearly .5 better than the previous record held by Pittsburgh’s Orlando Guerrero. Hernandez fanned 239 opposing batters, the second highest single-season total ever; walked just 62 hitters and held opponents to a .179 batting average against. His WHIP of .94 was also good enough for second all-time, only bested by his Season Seven tally of .94.
And what of those four losses? Three came against eventual playoff squads (Montreal, San Francisco, and Atlanta) and all four opponents were held to three earned runs or less. In fact, Hernandez was so dominant that no team scored more than three earned runs against him all season and 21 of his 29 outings were quality starts.
So where does the Mets’ lefty rank among all-time single season efforts?
Darren Chance, Season Five, Philadelphia Phillies
In his first full season with the Phillies Chance was nearly unhittable, posting a 17-7 mark in 34 starts. The then 34 year-old finished the season with a 2.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while fanning 209 and walking just 61.
Felipe Tejada, Season Two, Arizona Diamondbacks
During the heart of the steroid era no National League pitcher was more feared than Tejada, who won 22 games for the D-Backs in Season Two. Kinsella’s career leader in complete games finished 11 of his 35 starts that year, posting a 2.11 ERA and 22 wins while holding opposing batters to a paltry .191 batting average. Tejada struck out a career-high 219 batters that season and posted a WHIP of 1.00.
Patrick Rivera, Season Seven, New York Yankees
A year after spurning Kansas City for the bright lights and big money of New York City, Rivera dominated the American League en route to his only Cy Young award. He won 24 games for the eventual World Champs while posting a 2.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 221 strikeouts in 34 starts.
Ozzie Percival, Season Six, New York Yankees
Following a midseason trade from Washington during Season Five, Percival embarked on one of the most prolific stretches in Kinsella history, winning 36 games and posting a 2.55 ERA over the next year and a half. During Season Six, however, the right-hander put up his best effort. In that season he posted a 2.52 ERA and a 24-3 record in 221 innings, but did walk a career-high 79 batters and finish with a pedestrian 146 strikeouts.
Of course there are other hurlers that deserve recognition for seasons of excellence throughout the history of Kinsella, but each of the four above have long been recognized as the premier talent at the position. The point is not that Walt Hernandez has earned a right to be mentioned with them, but that it would be impossible not to mention him before them. Prognosticators had long labeled the lefty as the future, yet few would have predicted this level of dominance.
Here are Hernandez’ career totals through 184 starts, with his career rank in parentheses:
76 Wins (NR)
2.58 ERA (1)
1.05 WHIP (1)
8.88 K/9 (1)
.205 OAV (1)
2.71 OBP (1)
3.08 SLG (1)
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