Season 7 NL Forecast

Here are my forecasts for the division standings for the National League for Season 7. I've added additional info for strengths or weaknesses if the team is in top or bottom 25% of the league for one of my three evaluation categories: Offense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching. Unlike the AL, the offseason movement appears to have shaken up the NL playoff picture just a bit with the NL East looking like the power division and the NL South starting to rise from the ashes. The one thing I am certain about is that the NL picture seems alot muddier than the AL with many more teams with playoff potential. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)

NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (2) - Strength: SP
2. Montreal Expos
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
Can the Cubs live up to their potential this season or will they continue to disappoint? The defending NL champions in Montreal will definitely feel the loss of Springer as Marte must now carry the team himself. The Brewers will continue to stockpile talent in the minors while their major league team flounders.

NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Washington DC Nationals (5) - Strength: RP
3. New York Mets (6) - Strength: SP, RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Weakness: Off, RP
The Phillies look like the team to beat once again as they excel in all areas. The Nats are still strong competitors with a dominant bullpen. The Mets have the league's best pitching staff and this season their mediocre offense should get them to their first postseason. The Pirates still have a few top performers but lack of depth remains their downfall.

NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves - Weakness: SP
4. Houston Astros - Weakness: SP
The NL South has historically been the weakest division in Kinsella, but this offseason, a strong effort was made to change that. The Cards are once again my top rated team, but after last season, I am not a believer in seeing it translate to superior on-field performance. The Marlins made some solid additions to compete for the division or wild card. The Braves are a puzzle to me as their SP looks like one of the worst, yet last season was one of the better performing staffs. The players they did bring in should help them get over .500 this season, but they should be watching the playoffs on tv. The Astros made some improvements which should take them away from the #1 pick competition and closer to the middle of the road.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (3) - Strength: Off, RP
2. San Diego Padres - Strength: Off
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Strength: SP; Weakness: Off
4. Los Angeles Dodgers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Giants will likely run away with the West again this season as their offense and pitching remain strong. The Padres made the biggest signing in the NL with the addition of Bernard Springer, who single-handedly raises their offense from middle of the pack to top tier and puts them in the wild card hunt. The D'backs will likely slip out of the playoffs this season as their offense just isn't going to provide enough run support for their top notch pitching. The Dodgers will be near the bottom of the league with weaknesses across the board.

Wild Card
1. Washington DC Nationals (5)
2. New York Mets (6)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Florida Marlins
5. Montreal Expos
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. Atlanta Braves

Season 7 AL Forecast

Here are my forecasts for the division standings for the American League for Season 7. I've added additional info for strengths or weaknesses if the team is in top or bottom 25% of the league for one of my three evaluation categories: Offense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching.
Despite some major movement in the preseason, I foresee an identical playoff line-up as last season. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)

AL North
1. Detroit Tigers (4) - Strength: RP
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
This division should be closer this season as the Jays and Twins are very close in talent with the Tigers. Meanwhile, the White Sox remain a championship caliber AAA ball club.

AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Yankees will once again dominate this division. The Indians have the talent to be in the wild card hunt late in the season, while the Red Sox hopes will likely have faded by the All-Star break. The Orioles only competition this season will be for a top draft pick.

AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Charlotte Knights (5) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: Off, SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Rangers are once again the class of the division with great talent in all areas. The steady Knights are close behind also with a very well-rounded team. The Royals and Rays are still in major rebuilding mode with no hope for this season.

AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (3) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Anaheim Angels (6) - Strength: SP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
4. Seattle Mariners
The deepest AL division is led by the young and talented A's who excel at all facets of the game. The defending world champ Angels will get carried into the playoffs by their good starters and no real weaknesses. The Beavers offense looks spectacular but unfortunately they seem to once again be the near miss team thanks to their pitching issues, especially in the bullpen. The Mariners have some talented players but lack the depth to contend.

AL Wildcard Standings
1. Charlotte Knights (5)
2. Anaheim Angels (6)
3. Portland Beavers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Minnesota Twins

The Quest for 500 - Home Run Projections

Bribar's mention of a poll concerning our leading home run hitters and who would be the first to reach 500 got me curious about how they projected using the Bill James calculator (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments). That grew to me figuring out the projections for every home run hitter in the world with at least 3 full ML seasons. Here are the results for every player projected to hit 400 or more homeruns with their % probability of reaching 500. (Sorry about the formatting. If anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet to a blog, please let me know.)


Name Team Age Current Projection % Chance 500
Jose Mondesi CHA 28 281 633 97.0
Travis Murphy LAA 25 187 621 88.5
Dee Dee Hutton ATL 26 172 608 82.9
Bartolo Lopez CIN 27 182 570 71.9
Francisco Guillen NY1 26 201 566 72.2
Dee Bolling STL 32 306 563 82.3
Tony Masao CH1 24 166 558 67.2
Al Perez KC 27 196 556 68.4
Bernard Springer SD 28 253 540 66.2
Frank Jorgensen PHI 31 265 530 62.7
Kevin Marte MON 28 183 530 59.3
Orber Julio PIT 31 295 523 61.3
Doug Stewart FLA 23 129 492 47.7
Valerio Guillen NY1 29 218 472 39.9
Pedro Garrido PHI 29 211 471 40.0
Carter Jeffries PHI 32 253 452 30.6
Danny Alexander TOR 31 230 452 32.2
Chad Seabol STL 29 235 451 31.4
Todd Winchester CH2 27 188 448 33.3
Clyde Redmond PIT 27 161 440 32.2
Jose Roque FLA 27 177 435 29.7
Eric Roosevelt ATL 27 152 435 31.2
Benji Palmer NY2 31 229 431 24.4
Sam Kubinski SF 27 148 429 29.9
Harry Tejada CIN 30 214 428 24.8
Darryl Whitaker LAA 29 195 426 25.7
Earl Jorgensen CHA 27 177 425 26.6
Dan Guerrero ATL 32 255 424 19.0
Guy Cunningham NY1 26 154 424 28.5
Mule Benoit PIT 27 135 423 28.8
Miguel Pena MON 26 132 419 27.9
Leon Abbott LA 33 238 417 18.1
Tripp Devereaux CLE 28 171 416 24.5
Del Wilhelm PHI 31 232 414 18.1
Damian Chen DET 26 123 414 27.1
Eric Brumfield DET 28 141 409 24.7

Hall of Fame Potential - World Veterans

For this story, I am focusing on top performing players who at world creation had at least 5 invisible years of service and who will not be likely to build up their career statistics to the point at which their hall status would be more easily determined. From a scale of 0-100%, I will gauge their chances of making our Hall of Fame.

Catchers:
Robinson Jerzembeck – CHI-Sox/AZ/TX (35 yrs old, 10 invisible seasons) .317 BA, .406 OBP, .494 SLG, 740 Hits, 99 HR, 3 All-Star games: We just didn’t get a chance to see enough of him for him to have any shot at the Hall. 0%

Ralph Levine – WAS/BAL/SD (33, 5) .279, .409, .548, 833 Hits, 217 HR, 2-time MVP candidate: His hitting skills were based too strongly off his power which has fallen too much for him to be a factor any more. If his prior seasons were anything like his peak seasons, he might have had a shot, but he dropped off too soon to garner votes. 0%

First Base:
Arthur Boggs ANA/BAL (35, 8) .318, .406, .547, 1102 Hits, 198 HR, 3 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers: He is now in steep decline in skills may have just had his final productive season. Those 8 missing seasons are going to cost him, as he probably would be over 2600 hits and close to 500 home runs right now. 5%

Scott Rivers – PHI/LA/OAK (34, 5) .300, .372, .528, 1040 Hits, 209 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: He had a major career revival this season in Oakland. With only 5 missing seasons, he would be nowhere close to the career stats necessary for a non-defensive position. 0%

Second Base:
Jose Pichardo – TB/PHI (35, 9) .314, .380, .549, 1164 Hits, 215 DB, 197 HR, 204 SB, 4 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Gold Glove: During his prime, which we missed seeing, he would have been considered one of the best all around players in the game, hitting for power and average, running the bases, and playing a decent centerfield. With his missing seasons, he would be at or close to 3000 hits, 500 Hrs, and 600 SB. Since he is still capable of good production for a couple more seasons, he has a fair shot. 40%

Alexander Myers – TOR/NYY (33, 5) .322, .406, .498, 1267 Hits, 222 DB, 145 HR, 158 SB, 4 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers: Arguably the best all-around second baseman in the game over the course of his career. Barring injury, has a decent shot at 2000 real hits, making 3000 a likely occurrence for his total career. 50%

Third Base:
Jake Clapp – MIL/PHI/SF (34, 6) .308, .371, .612, 1112 Hits, 269 HR, 185 SB, 5 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers, 3 MVPs: When this world began, he was the best all around player, as he likely would have been in his previous 6 seasons. I don’t think it really matters what he does going forward as his first few seasons were that good. 100%

Adam Martin – CHA (33, 6) .278, .344, .569, 894 Hits, 250 HR, 3 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers: He has been a premier slugger but has been in decline the last couple seasons. He would have been a strong possibility for 500 home runs with the 6 extra seasons, but unfortunately homers are his only impressive offensive contribution. His chances seem slim at best. 10%

Shortstop:
Willie Edmonds – CIN (34, 8) .257, .320, .479, 848 Hits, 163 HR, 157 SB, 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers, 4 Gold Gloves: He is a rare talent with his ability to hit about 30 homers, steal about 30 bases, and win gold gloves at shortstop. With his skills still first rate at 34, he could have had 400 homers, 400 SB, and 10 gold gloves at this point in his career, but unfortunately 8 years is a lot to miss. 25%

Leftfield:
Shep McNeil – TEX/MIL/PIT/CLE (37, 7) .305, .373, .505, 1057 Hits, 162 HR, 1 All-Star: We missed out on his prime, during which he would have been a perennial All-Star with his ability to hit for power and average. Without much left in the tank, his career is going to be just too short. 0%

Sammy Rincon – TOR/KC (35, 7) .274, .344, .531, 874 Hits, 215 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: Like Adam Martin, he was an impressive power hitter, but unfortunately also like Martin, his skills are on the decline and home runs are all he did that impressed. 0%

Hayes Swann – BAL/FLA/NYY/WAS (33, 5) .321, .420, .584, 1096 Hits, 232 HR, 3 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger: It’s likely that his previous contract and his team hopping have overshadowed his accomplishments at this point. Regardless of what you think of him, he has been one of the most potent offensive forces around. With the skills to play a few more seasons, he will likely have an impressive resume before he’s done. 50%

Del Wilhelm – PHI (30,5) .311, .400, .610, 1115 Hits, 259 DB, 232 HR, 203 SB, 4 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers: He has been the quiet leader of the current Philly dynasty going unnoticed mostly due to the fact that he has been surrounded by such good teammates. At only 30, his career numbers are going to be impressive despite the lost seasons. 90%

Centerfield:
Robert Jefferson – MIL/NYY (33,5) .283, .361, .394, 1079 Hits, 75 HR, 251 SB, 3 All-Stars, 1 Gold Glove: He’s been a great centerfielder and a good hitter, but just not special enough in either for Hall consideration. 0%

DaRond Wagner – ANA (31,5) .278, .354, .411, 975 Hits, 83 HR, 212 SB, 3 All-Stars, 3 Gold Gloves: He’s impressed a little more with the glove, but like Jefferson is not Hall material. 0%

Rightfield:
Sandy Valentin – KC (38, 12) .299, .375, .501, 923 Hits, 149 HR, 3 All-Stars: In Season 1 at age 33, he had a great season and if that was the norm throughout his prime he would have been a surefire hall of famer. With his 12 missing seasons, he might have had 3000 hits with around 600 homers, but we will never know for sure. 12 seasons is just too much. 0%

Starting Pitchers (My min requirements were 1000 IP and ERA under 4.00):
Alex Kubinski – SEA/FLA/LA (38,13) 1318 IP, 989 K, .237 OAV, 1.20 WHIP, 3.47 ERA, 77-64, 1 All-Star: He was likely one of the better pitchers during those 13 missing seasons, but its just too much time lost to judge. 0%

Freddie Alston – LA/SEA (38, 7) 1142 IP, 893 K, .239 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 3.38 ERA, 77-48, 3 All-Stars: He’s been very effective, though has received some help from his home parks. With his skills rapidly eroding now, his ML career could be over and he just hasn’t done enough. 0%

Tris Breen – PIT/ATL (37, 8) 1194 IP, 954 K, .265 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.57 ERA, 78-62: Another very good pitcher with a known career that will be far too short. 0%

Jeff Bollea – BOS/BAL/TEX (37, 7) 1262 IP, 1124 K, .234 OAV, 1.23 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 87-34, 5 All-Stars: He has had a short but superb career. Since he is still one of the league’s better starters, he has a little more time but he needs to be pretty special to have a shot. 20%

Homer Flanagan – SF/TEX/FLA (36,6) 1028 IP, 853 K, .240 OAV, 1.13 WHIP, 3.30 ERA, 70-37, 2 All-Stars: When he’s on the mound, he’s been one of the best of this era. Unfortunately, his poor fitness has limited his workload and left him as a hall longshot. 10%

Paul Hujimoto – SF (35, 5) 1318 IP, 923 K, .250 OAV, 1.28 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 87-55, 2 All-Stars: He’s been consistently good every year, but never great. So he will likely lack the longevity that would make him a serious candidate. 5%

Felipe Tejada – ARI (35, 7) 1375 IP, 1071 K, .241 OAV, 1.21 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, 97-51, 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Cy Young: Tied for 2nd in career wins, he has been one of the best starters. His Season 2 performance might have been the best single season by a pitcher to this point. With a few more seasons left to add to his resume, he has a pretty good shot. 40%

Darren Chance – CHI-Sox/PHI (35,8) 1277 IP, 1236 K, .228 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.95 ERA, 90-52, 4 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs: The world leader in career ERA has been the most consistent top performer among starting pitchers. With 2 Cys already and more productive seasons ahead, he is the surest bet among starters headed to the Hall. 80%

Bernie Delgado – ARI (35, 7) 1123 IP, 800 K, .248 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.60 WHIP, 69-50: He’s been a good but not great pitcher. 0%

Patrick Rivera – KC/NYY (34, 6) 1304 IP, 1281 K, .249 OAV, 1.24 WHIP, 3.68 ERA, 97-49, 4 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: Having a Cy on the mantle elevates your status, but like Tejada, he still needs to do more to earn his place. 40%

Stephen Fischer – KC (31, 5) 1113 IP, 883 K, .260 OAV, 1.31 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, 81-47, 2 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: A Cy is always impressive, but unfortunately he’s been a frequent DL visitor and has had the consistency of Bret Saberhagen. He is only 31, so he has time, but it seems unlikely. 10%

Relief Pitchers:
Earl Patterson – LA/DET (38, 13) 403 IP, 334 K, .247 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.21 ERA, 19-24, 131/153 Saves, 2 All-Stars: He’s been a very effective closer for Detroit for the past 4 seasons. At 38, time is running out and we have just not seen enough. 0%

Wes Roosevelt – KC (36, 10) 925 IP, 782 K, .240 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.96 ERA, 56-39, 42/71 Saves: One of the best setup men in the business. He has been a bullpen workhorse logging a couple of innings almost every night. Wins and saves are stats that garner glory for pitchers and he is not able to collect much of either making him a fringe candidate at best. 5%

Vic Castillo – KC/NYY (36, 7) 265 IP, 209 K, .201 OAV, 0.92 WHIP, 1.49 ERA, 1-5, 248/261 Saves, 6 All-Stars, 3 Fireman: The most effective one-inning closer in the game. His annual stat lines look like Eckersley’s best and he is the all-time leader in saves and save percentage. He has been too good to ignore. 85%

Jorge Guapo – WAS/HOU/TEX (35, 6) 314 IP, 275 K, .263 OAV, 1.25 WHIP, 3.81 ERA, 12-19, 177/203 Saves, 3 All-Stars: He’s been a good closer, but the hall is for great players. 0%

Pedro Cabrera – BAL/STL (34,7) 267 IP, 193 K, .215 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 2.80 ERA, 4-12, 230/256 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s been a bit of a lesser version of Castillo. He still has some time to amass an impressive save total, but his entry is a bit less certain. 35%

Andres Alcantara – DET/HOU/CIN (34, 6) 444 IP, 394 K, .250 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.42 ERA, 14-25, 207/248 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s another good, but not great closer. 0%

Victor Lima – DET/FLA/SF (33, 5) 717 IP, 681 K, .222 OAV, 1.05 WHIP, 2.50 ERA, 51-25, 56/66 Saves, 2 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s one of the best pitchers in the game. It’s tough to garner hall attention in the middle relief role he has mostly occupied until this season. If he continues to close and sticks around until he’s sniffing 40, he should have the credentials. 40%

Carlos Solano – LA/FLA (31, 6) 317 IP, 293 K, .212 OAV, 1.10 WHIP, 2.98 ERA, 6-21, 247/275 Saves, 5 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: The #2 man in career saves, he will likely retire as the all-time leader with a very impressive total. A Hall plaque seems likely in his future. 60%