After completing my first season in which I attempted to use my personally crafted player comparison formulas to predict the results for the season, I would have to say it was pretty darn successful. My offense and pitching predictions were generally pretty close and I would have to say that a great deal of the results variance was due to park factor, which I did not attempt to adjust for.
The variance of the NL rankings from the actuals was 20%, while the variance of the offense and pitching results was 24.4%. The AL was a little better as the AL rankings variance was only 15% and the offense/pitching variance was 15.8%. So overall, I scored a solid B, which was better than I expected.
NL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3)
2. Chicago Cubs (7)
3. Montreal Expos (4)
4. Washington DC Nationals (2)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (5)
6. San Francisco Giants (1)
7. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
8. New York Mets (9)
9. San Diego Padres (12)
10. Cincinnati Reds (6)
11. Milwaukee Brewers (16)
12. Atlanta Braves (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)
14. Florida Marlins (11)
15. Pittsburgh Pirates (10)
16. Houston Astros (15)
The only big surprises for me here were the disappointing seasons in Chicago and St. Louis and the dominating season in Frisco.
NL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
2. Montreal Expos (4)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
4. Washington DC Nationals (1)
5. Chicago Cubs (7)
6. San Francisco (2)
7. Milwaukee Brewers (10)
8. San Diego Padres (15)
9. Cincinnati Reds (6)
10. Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
11. New York Mets (14)
12. Pittsburgh Pirates (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (16)
14. Atlanta Braves (12)
15. Houston Astros (9)
16. Florida Marlins (11)
NL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (7)
2. Chicago Cubs (10)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (9)
4. Montreal Expos (8)
5. New York Mets (3)
6. Washington DC Nationals (4)
7. San Francisco Giants (1)
8. St. Louis Cardinals (5)
9. San Diego Padres (6)
10. Atlanta Braves (2)
11. Florida Marlins (11)
12. Cincinnati Reds (13)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (12)
14. Pittsburgh Pirates (14)
15. Milwaukee Brewers (15)
16. Houston Astros (16)
AL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (2)
3. Charlotte Knights (5)
4. Anaheim Angels (6)
5. Minnesota Twins (10)
6. Portland Beavers (7)
7. Oakland Athletics (3)
8. Cleveland Indians (12)
9. Boston Red Sox (11)
10. Toronto Blue Jays (9)
11. Detroit Tigers (4)
12. Seattle Mariners (8)
13. Baltimore Orioles (14)
14. Kansas City Royals (15)
15. Chicago White Sox (13)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
The biggest misses here were in Minnesota, which likely finished further down due to mid-season trades, and Detroit, who mostly surprised on the mound.
AL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. New York Yankees (2)
2. Texas Rangers (1)
3. Portland Beavers (4)
4. Charlotte Knights (3)
5. Minnesota Twins (9)
6. Anaheim Angels (8)
7. Oakland Athletics (5)
8. Cleveland Indians (7)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
10. Detroit Tigers (10)
11. Baltimore Orioles (12)
12. Seattle Mariners (14)
13. Boston Red Sox (11)
14. Chicago White Sox (13)
15. Kansas City Royals (15)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
AL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (5)
3. Anaheim Angels (2)
4. Boston Red Sox (9)
5. Charlotte Knights (4)
6. Kansas City Royals (14)
7. Minnesota Twins (12)
8. Oakland Athletics (8)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (10)
10. Cleveland Indians (13)
11. Detroit Tigers (3)
12. Seattle Mariners (6)
13. Portland Beavers (7)
14. Baltimore Orioles (15)
15. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
16. Chicago White Sox (11)
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