AL North
Minnesota Twins 82-61 (92-70)
Detroit Tigers 78-66 (90-72)
Chicago White Sox 75-69 (76-86)
The Twins appear to be on the road to taking the division again this year. After a long drought, it is quite an accomplishment to win two in a row. Thunderdonky is proving that he is a solid owner and a force to be reckoned with in the future. They lead all of Kinsella in Runs Scored, and hit the most doubles. The starting pitching staff has been one of the best in Kinsella with 82 quality starts and induced 123 double plays on their way to only allowing 604 runs per game. Their downfall is the bullpen, and have allowed 56 unearned runs.
The Tigers have all the talent in the world, and as I proclaimed in the previews the past few seasons, "I just don't trust this team". Drake is a good owner and seems to have rectified the problem. Derek Lewis is a guarantee for the gold glove at short (20 + plays, only 15 errors. The same could be said of Helms and Watkins in CF and 3b, and Lombard in LF. This team has 80 plus plays and only 20 negative plays (half of which are attributed to Pascual Brito who was moved out of the outfield and placed at the DH spot. Proud of the Tigers for making necessary changes.
The White Sox are the surprise of the division. Only predicted to win 76 games, they already have 75 and are positioned for a wild card race. The pale hose have only allowed 602 runs, but have a below average offense with 627 runs scored. Still, this was supposed to be a rebuilding and developing young players while supplementing with Vets. The formula works, and it has paid off for the pessimistic Jnewfry.
AL East
New York Yankees 79-64 (101-61)
Baltimore Orioles 76-68 (89-73)
Cleveland Indians 75-68 (87-75)
The Yankees were my pick to win not just the AL East, but all of the AL. Although they haven't dominated they have been an interesting case study. 27-20 in one run games, 12-3 in extra innings. They have scored 724 runs, and only allowed 662. This is a good team, but maybe not as good as I thought. Still, is this a team you want to face in the playoffs? I sure don't.
The Orioles were seen as a playoff team and are close to meet the early season projections. As expected the starting pitching hasn't been very good, but the bullpen has been lights out. Coming down the stretch I'm not sure if the O's have enough to sneak in but don't be surprised if they do.
Cleveland owner drichter said it best "this team is running out of gas". I predicted they would just miss the playoffs, and as the season winds down and the leaves change colors the Indians are fading but still have a shot.
AL South
Texas Rangers 80-63 (97-65)
Tampa Bay Rays 74-70 (69-93)
As expected, the Rangers appear to be on their way to winning 7th consecutive division crown. Although, they are not as dominating as they have been in the past despite the $115 payroll. The offensive production is down, while the pitching remains consistent. This is not a team to be taken lightly. And you can expect them to challenge for the AL Crown.
To say that I was a bit pessimistic about my Rays is an understatement. I've been giddy that the team has played so well and are in position to challenge the Rangers, and for a wild card spot. The young pitchers have improved dramitically since the beginning of the year. Dixon, Kirby, Kennedy, and rule V steal Crede have joined with veteran Mercado to form a solid starting five. This group will continue getting better, and will be a force in the league. But not this year. This team doesn't hit well, and without the surprise performances by Jimenez and Cordero they would have finished closer to the prediction. Defensively this is an average team but they are pretty good at getting double plays. The Rays have never made the playoffs while I've been owner, and it sure would be fun to join the party this year.
Just has surprising has been the decline of
AL West
Oakland A's 94-49 (106-66)
The A's have performed very well and are in cruise control. They may not make the projections, but I may have underestimated how they will play in the playoffs.This team looks better positioned as a playoff team than I initially thought.
Two surprises in this division have been dakar's Beavers which are the darkhorse for the wildcard, and the Angels who completely fell apart. I'll never understand this game.
WildCard!!!!
1. Tigers 78-66
2. Orioles 76-68
Indians .5 games out
They may be fading, but they still have a shot one of the playoff spots. They have the talent to make it interesting.
White Sox 1 game out
JNew is impressed with his scrappy bunch, and I'm going to say loud and clear I think they sneak in!
Rays 2 games out
Surprise! Can the young guns sneak in? They are young, hungry, and healthy. A run is not out of the question.
Beavers 7.5 games out
Big time dark horse, but worth mentioning that they are in this spot during their rebuilding. Nicely done.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Friday, November 8, 2013
Coming down to the wire...NL
NL North:
Montreal Expos 96-46 (predicted 96-66)
Unless the Expos lose the next 20 games it's safe to say my prediction will be blown out of the water. My final predictions have them winning the NL and going to the World Series. Who's going to argue that point now?
NL East:
Pittsburgh Pirates 78-64 (97-65)
New York Mets 76-66 (77-85)
Philadelphia Phillies 75-67 (60-102)
The Phillies and Mets have come on strong to make this a phenomenal pennant race! I underestimated both teams (by a LOT). The Phillies were supposed to be rebuilding and my "heart was breaking" for them. Jokes on me and my infamous words "if they finish out the cellar it will be a miracle". Someone call the Pope. Pitching has led the way with 24 year old Freddy Hughes, who won 17 games last year, is a CY candidate. The rest of the pitching has been stellar only allowing 591 runs.
Not to be outdone, the Mets have also done it with pitching, and have been slightly better than the Phils by only allowing 577 runs (best in the division). The biggest difference is blanch's team doesn't have "that guy" like the Hughes. They have 7 guys that have made 10 starts or more, and a closer by committee. Truly a team effort.
And now to the favorite. They struggled early and should have a HUGE lead. Instead they are in danger of not making the playoffs no less strolling to the division. The offense is still great, and the pitching is sufficient. They hold the second best OPS in the NL (to Cincy) and are third in runs scored. But when you look down the roster you see Adrian Ramsey at .900 but everyone else is just...SOLID. This team is dangerous top to bottom.
As you can see...this is a dog fight. I will be keeping a close eye on the division as summer winds down.
NL South
Florida Marlins 94-48 (101-61)
Have you met Ted? (a "how i met your mother" joke). The NL knows Ted pretty well. Looks like my prediction gets beat again. I had them as a playoff team but not playing in the NLCS. Could they be there instead of the Pirates or Expos? Looks like it...
NL West
San Diego Padres 74-68 (78-84)
Looks like the Padres have scratched their way to the top again. With 20 games left I don't see the Dodgers or Diamondbacks making a come back. I had high hopes for the Dodgers (my real life favorite team, as you all know), but it's just bad luck that they are not in the race (their predicted w/l puts them over .500, but they are currently 10 games under. WTH? is the call from Chavez Ravine.)
And my favorite whipping boy tmantom would feel left out if I didn't include him after the last few painfully cruel season predictions. I predicted 68-94 by playing Alex Gabriel in RF. They are going to finish pretty close to that. Gabriel currently has 5 assists, 6 errors, and 11 negative plays. There is no telling how many runs that is, but maybe it would be enough to be at .500? Either way the experts on the boards are touting this strategy and I can't say that is the reason they will finish in the cellar.
Wild Cards!!!!
1. New York Mets
2. Phiadelphia Phillies
Cubs 74-68, 1 game back.
Good for the Cubs!!! I predicted 75 wins and they are about to jump that. Could this mean a spot in the playoffs? ****if you are brave enough to the end to see my take on the Cubs offense vs defense and how it helped/hurt. So, unless you are a sabermetrics goon like me, or want to tangle your mind around stats don't scroll down****
Cardinals 73-69, 2 games back.
I predicted 86-76 for this team and really they should be. 686 runs scored vs 607 allowed is 80 runs. At this point they should have 78 to 80 wins. It's not too late, and cyben has done it before.
Braves 69-73, 6 games back.
Not out of it, but they need help and have a lot of work to do. I had them winning 82 and that's looking like an accurate prediction.
Dodgers 66-76, 9 games back.
The long shot horse. Do you believe in miracles?
+
+
+
+
now the nerdy Cubs stuff
I have to go back to my original prediction. With decent defense where would this team be? Descalso is in RF with 7 errors and 14 negative plays. Perry is at short with 26 errors and 12 negative plays Cash is at 3rd with 12 errors and 5 negative plays. If you were to subtract the offensive production from the runs obviously lost by poor defensive play, where would this team be??? This is COMPLETELY subjective:
Descalso: 103 runs created minus 10 runs lost
Perry: 80 runs created minus 15runs lost
Cash:48 runs created minus 5runs lost
The difference would be 30 runs...or 2.5 wins. The BIG question...would 3 other players with replacement level hitting skills but superior defensive skills do better? Cash is basically replacement level so let's say 45 runs is a replacement level hitter.
45*3 = 135 runs (barely making it past Descalso by himself).
RF = 0-10 runs (avg-superior)
SS = 5-20 runs
3b = 0-10 runs
= 5 to 40 runs. With superior fielders 135 + 40 = 175. With current lineup 231-30 =201. Looks like the Cubs are breaking even and have a good chance at the playoffs.
Montreal Expos 96-46 (predicted 96-66)
Unless the Expos lose the next 20 games it's safe to say my prediction will be blown out of the water. My final predictions have them winning the NL and going to the World Series. Who's going to argue that point now?
NL East:
Pittsburgh Pirates 78-64 (97-65)
New York Mets 76-66 (77-85)
Philadelphia Phillies 75-67 (60-102)
The Phillies and Mets have come on strong to make this a phenomenal pennant race! I underestimated both teams (by a LOT). The Phillies were supposed to be rebuilding and my "heart was breaking" for them. Jokes on me and my infamous words "if they finish out the cellar it will be a miracle". Someone call the Pope. Pitching has led the way with 24 year old Freddy Hughes, who won 17 games last year, is a CY candidate. The rest of the pitching has been stellar only allowing 591 runs.
Not to be outdone, the Mets have also done it with pitching, and have been slightly better than the Phils by only allowing 577 runs (best in the division). The biggest difference is blanch's team doesn't have "that guy" like the Hughes. They have 7 guys that have made 10 starts or more, and a closer by committee. Truly a team effort.
And now to the favorite. They struggled early and should have a HUGE lead. Instead they are in danger of not making the playoffs no less strolling to the division. The offense is still great, and the pitching is sufficient. They hold the second best OPS in the NL (to Cincy) and are third in runs scored. But when you look down the roster you see Adrian Ramsey at .900 but everyone else is just...SOLID. This team is dangerous top to bottom.
As you can see...this is a dog fight. I will be keeping a close eye on the division as summer winds down.
NL South
Florida Marlins 94-48 (101-61)
Have you met Ted? (a "how i met your mother" joke). The NL knows Ted pretty well. Looks like my prediction gets beat again. I had them as a playoff team but not playing in the NLCS. Could they be there instead of the Pirates or Expos? Looks like it...
NL West
San Diego Padres 74-68 (78-84)
Looks like the Padres have scratched their way to the top again. With 20 games left I don't see the Dodgers or Diamondbacks making a come back. I had high hopes for the Dodgers (my real life favorite team, as you all know), but it's just bad luck that they are not in the race (their predicted w/l puts them over .500, but they are currently 10 games under. WTH? is the call from Chavez Ravine.)
And my favorite whipping boy tmantom would feel left out if I didn't include him after the last few painfully cruel season predictions. I predicted 68-94 by playing Alex Gabriel in RF. They are going to finish pretty close to that. Gabriel currently has 5 assists, 6 errors, and 11 negative plays. There is no telling how many runs that is, but maybe it would be enough to be at .500? Either way the experts on the boards are touting this strategy and I can't say that is the reason they will finish in the cellar.
Wild Cards!!!!
1. New York Mets
2. Phiadelphia Phillies
Cubs 74-68, 1 game back.
Good for the Cubs!!! I predicted 75 wins and they are about to jump that. Could this mean a spot in the playoffs? ****if you are brave enough to the end to see my take on the Cubs offense vs defense and how it helped/hurt. So, unless you are a sabermetrics goon like me, or want to tangle your mind around stats don't scroll down****
Cardinals 73-69, 2 games back.
I predicted 86-76 for this team and really they should be. 686 runs scored vs 607 allowed is 80 runs. At this point they should have 78 to 80 wins. It's not too late, and cyben has done it before.
Braves 69-73, 6 games back.
Not out of it, but they need help and have a lot of work to do. I had them winning 82 and that's looking like an accurate prediction.
Dodgers 66-76, 9 games back.
The long shot horse. Do you believe in miracles?
+
+
+
+
now the nerdy Cubs stuff
I have to go back to my original prediction. With decent defense where would this team be? Descalso is in RF with 7 errors and 14 negative plays. Perry is at short with 26 errors and 12 negative plays Cash is at 3rd with 12 errors and 5 negative plays. If you were to subtract the offensive production from the runs obviously lost by poor defensive play, where would this team be??? This is COMPLETELY subjective:
Descalso: 103 runs created minus 10 runs lost
Perry: 80 runs created minus 15runs lost
Cash:48 runs created minus 5runs lost
The difference would be 30 runs...or 2.5 wins. The BIG question...would 3 other players with replacement level hitting skills but superior defensive skills do better? Cash is basically replacement level so let's say 45 runs is a replacement level hitter.
45*3 = 135 runs (barely making it past Descalso by himself).
RF = 0-10 runs (avg-superior)
SS = 5-20 runs
3b = 0-10 runs
= 5 to 40 runs. With superior fielders 135 + 40 = 175. With current lineup 231-30 =201. Looks like the Cubs are breaking even and have a good chance at the playoffs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)