Final Predictions

Love it, or hate...I have to do it. My predictions for the playoffs with Division winners, ALCS/NLCS, World Series, and the predicted Champ:

Playoff Prediction

American League:

DC- Oakland Athletics

DC- Texas Rangers

DC- Toronto Blue Jays

DC- New York Yankees

WC- Minnesota Twins

WC- Baltimore Orioles

National League:

DC- San Francisco Giants

DC- Florida Marlins

DC- Montreal Expos

DC- Pittsburgh Pirates

WC- Los Angeles Dodgers

WC- St. Louis Cardinals

ALCS: Rangers vs Yankees

NLCS: Expos vs Pirates

World Series: Yankees vs Expos

Winner: Yankees

AL West

The WILD WILD WEST!

Oakland Athletics (AL) mikebr13 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 105-57

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: The A’s are one of the best rounded teams. Their downfall is defense with several players using their bat to make up for their glove. The pitching staff has one of the best collections of FIP and Whip pitchers available.

PREDICTION: 96-66

OUT: Chance Mantei, Craig Torres, Charles Bando, Terrence Smoltz, Roosevelt Wilson
IN: Al Navarro, Vance Cora

PREVIEW: Things were far from broken in Oakland, yet a fixing was in order. Gone is Charles Bando (3.1 war, 88 rc), and a few outliers that didn’t contribute to the success of the franchise in the way mike needed.

In comes Vance Cora, a supremely gifted player that brought in 5.1 war and 103 RC for the Orioles last year. The deal cost them Bando, Smoltz (1.2 war in 324 pa) and a gifted 2b Bobby “the flair” Blair. It’s too early to say who won that deal.

The pitching staff that dominated the AL is intact, and the bullpen is still solid with Esteban Iglesias, and Pascual Calderon. Marv Mathews (3.81 fip/1.04 whip) was actually optioned to AAA.

Lonny Soto will be a great addition off the bench as he makes his ML debut, and the same goes for Bengie Guiterrez for defensive help. There was no free agent pick ups for the A’s. They didn’t need it.

This team is even more dangerous now than before. But is it enough to get to the promised land? They haven’t been their yet, and are long overdue.

PREDICTION: 106-56

Anaheim Angels (AL) sweetnss355 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 86-76

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Although it would be hours or even days to sort through all of the trades done by the Angels, it has become apparent that trader-sweet is always looking for a good deal and a chance to improve in Orange County. This is a solid team. The role players need to step up and give the Angels that fifth guy that can produce at a higher level.

PREDICTION: 82-80

OUT: Ebenezer Lloyd, Damian Carpenter, Daryle Smith, Dickie Wallace, Melvin Damon
IN: Mario Valentin

PREVIEW: The Angels are a team in transition this season. Damian Carpenter, who made 28 starts, was traded to the Knights. Ebenezer Lloyd appeared in 72 games, and logged 127 innings was shipped to Toronto. They didn’t get any immediate ML help from those deals. Benji Limon was a starter last year, but not a successful one for the past two years wearing Angel Red. Ace Clayton Brand blew out his elbow (possibly costing a playoff spot), and then reinjured it in spring training. Jake Linebrink looks to stay in the rotation, as does aging veteran Jacob Uehara. Dave Olmos was also optioned despite having a successful year (3.96 fip/1.18 whip).

On the offensive side, Dickie Wallace was let go (0.8 War in 306 ab). Mark Nakano was lost to the Mets, and Melvin Damon and his 2.6 War was optioned. (At this point I just have to say, that someone has to get on the horn with sweet and try to get Olmos and Damon. I feel bad for those kids. They need a home in the ML.)

There were several promotions….Sal Martin (P), Sammy Sanchez (cf making debut). And reliever Mario Valentin joins the club from Arizona. But there were no other moves.

It is clear that Angels feel they can build on their 86 win season, and it appears that they are ready to make a run.

PREDICTION: 85-77

Portland Beavers (AL) dakar View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 75-87

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Kinsella was buzzing with the news that famed owner Dakar had joined the league and taken over the Beavers deep in the heart of the northwest. The Beavers were a consistently mediocre team with the old ownership, so with Dakar will things be different? It’s going to be a long year in rainy Portland. “Keep Portland Weird”…words to live by for Dakar.

PREDICTION: 67-95

OUT: Javy Johnson, Jose Lirano, Willie Gonzales, Harry Cubillan, Lariel Juarez, Sandy Rolls, Geoff Radmanovich
IN: Hank Milton, Greg Hewson, Lance Bergeron, Fritz Munoz, Don Martin, Hunter Young

PREVIEW: Newsflash…Portland is still weird. And Dakar had a magic touch. This team had no business winning 75 games. Can the magic be repeated? Almost the entire pitching staff is GONE. Some got old (Javy Johnson…maybe he’s moving to Houston?). The survivors not voted off the island are starters Kenneth Mann, DJ Greinke (surprisingly good!), Michael Dupler, and super relievers Adam Strange, Robert Clayton, and the not so super BC Herrera (5.24 fip/1.28 whip…huh?). Suspiciously, Harry Cubillan was sent down after a strong 49 innings of work.

On the offensive side, Patrick Kipling is getting old, but he’s still awesome. Curt Ramsay is coming along nicely (2.7 War). Otto Meyers was a big question mark (negative War for a player like that???).

Hank Milton will surely help from the SS spot, Greg Hewson is a capable starter at age 35, and rule V was kind to the Beavs. Although they were not people I needed, they were on my short list (14 guys) and will help out. Lance Bergeron was a nice pickup for the bullpen (19 stamina means 10 pitches tops…). Good signings overall by Dakar.

If this offense improves, and the new pitching gels, the Beavers could challenge the Angels for a playoff spot. Things just got a lot more interesting in the Wild Wild West.

PREDICTION: 76-86

Seattle Mariners (AL) suginamiku View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 58-104

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Things have been cold and rainy in the Emerald City since then as the M’s have won 72, 75, 68, and 64 games. One name to remember is Erik Cosby. He should be able to contribute as much as 90 runs. The Mariners gave up 883 runs…and no moves were made to make that group better or even competitive. Haven’t seen any indication the Mariners will be better, but they could be worse with the loss of Marin (their most productive hitter).

PREDICTION: 53-109

OUT: Al Navarro, Danys Lopez, Tommie Williams, Andy House, Alfonso Lecuona, Ezdra Guillon
IN: Chance Mantei, Craig Torres, Russ Byrne

PREVIEW: To sum up sug’s feelings on Seattle…WILL SOMEONE PLEASE GET THE ME THE HELL OUT OF THIS COLD RAINY HELL HOLE!?!?!?!?! I feel that this should be put up for a vote, and allow Portland the opportunity to move up to Seattle. Just my personal opinion…

Seattle folks love wet and cold (not that it’s a big deal, they have a retractable roof, but they do love the cold wet weather, just watch a Seahawks game. PEOPLE ARE CRAZY!). But as sug put it “as the GM of the proverbial team that sucks hindass (HA NO FILTER BITCHES!)…we will do our best.” One encouraging tidbit was “(it would make me happy to) see the Mariners in the Wild Card Race”. Optimism…pass it on.

To start the previews I want to point out that the pitching appears to be turning around. Mendoza is solid, Hume was a good pick up last year, and Cliff Fox is turning into an ace. Guys were let go that really weighted down the team. The bullpen still has Gary Richardson and Phil Tracy which is GREAT, (but also Howard Glenn who should be taken out Old Yellar Style).

So, how do they build further? First…FIX THE DEFENSE!!! The pitchers are good, but there is NO HELP behind them. JD Lamb should be immediately removed from RF. Alexander McGee should be removed from SS. Erik Cosby will be better in CF, and Ezdra Guillon has been sent packing. Pedro Sierra is a good catcher and it’s a good move to have him behind the dish (but with 75 durability he needs help, and George Ramirez isn’t it). Ted Gardner is not a 2b. Ed Curtis should be in LF, not as a part timer at 3b. If a few of things are done, the Mariners can be respectable again. If not, they could give up 1000 runs.

I was wrong on Cosby…he only pulled down 74 runs, with a 1.2 War. He WILL be better this year. 90-100. Count on it. Can James Hunter get to 3000 hits? Russ Byrne was a great pickup and give them at least four good starters.

PREDICTIONs: no fix on defense 60-102, fix defense 78-84

NL West

The west was won by a mysterious drifter that left as fast as he came. Can the Padres come back? Did everyone finally get enough to catch up?

Arizona Diamondbacks (NL) beanpole View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 93-69

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: This team is much more dangerous than they appear, and owner fiioe believes that the snakes can contend this year in the desert. As much as this team seems like a contender, some of their moves are questioned. They have made a tremendous amount of moves to get better, and last year should have had a much better win/loss record. Is it the managerial decisions? The coaches? They have something to prove to the critics.

PREDICTION: 82-80

OUT: Shelby Newhouser, Tony Sasaki, Kid Peters, Austin Lane, Sergei Kramer
IN: Aaron Hernandez, Albert Castillo

PREVIEW: After blasting my predictions out of the water, and building a solid team in Arizona…fiioe disappeared. He left as mysteriously as he came, and the world is better for it.

New Owner Beanpole brings very little HBD experience, but has been successful already. He’s inherited a good situation, with the exception of the Ozzie Jordan situation (elbows blowing out everywhere!). Les Walker is aging and will be less effective than he was last year (4.84 fip/1.35 whip/5.5 ip per game). The loss of Shelby Newhouser will sting, and the understandable optioning of Tony Sasaki will hurt short term, but probably help in the long term.

The first really big question mark is the release of Kid Peters. Obviously it was for financial reasons. But Peters was a huge part of the Diamondbacks offense (that was above average for an nl team), and while Lane and Kramer had issues, they were not poor players (a combined 3.8 war isn’t always easy to replace).

I think the one year anomaly of the Padres being knocked out of the top spot was a one year proposition. The Diamondbacks have fallen back to mediocre. They are still good, just not good enough.

PREDICTION: 80-82

San Diego Padres (NL) sermonauthor View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 88-74

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Prolific owner, sermonauthor, has his team gearing up for their 7^th consecutive division title out West. Can San Diego return to the World Series? Can they win it? They will certainly be in the mix since no team will challenge them out west. If the offense can step in when the leaves drop, it could happen again.

PREDICTION: 101-61

OUT: Yamid Quixote, Jesus Cerda, Ernest Meacham
IN: Brent Simpson, Cookie WOO!, Mitchell Keller, Carl Wood, Miguel Colome

PREVIEW: Something went horribly wrong in San Diego. Wish it were a one-time thing, but it looks like every year someone is going to step up and punch them in the nose every year from here on out.

The pitching staff isn’t getting any younger. And it looks like they have gone to a six man rotation (and that is a GREAT six). The bullpen is good (but not as great). The loss of Yamid Quixote and Ahmed Duncan  didn’t hurt (only 48 innings total).

The offense will deal with the loss of Jesus Cerda (2.2 War, 82 runs). Damian Brantley got old all of a sudden, and his 5.7 war will drop (107 rc, could go down to 80…that’s 3 wins). Furio Becker isn’t doing the defense or pitching any favors with his 20 negative plays (he’s a DH, why isn’t he in the AL?). You can put Hick Weston right there with him. He was only worth 0.9 war, and 66 rc so he actually HURT the team more than helped. Melvin Douglas could be a bright spot, if he can make contact once in awhile.

One burning question is…why is Tony Kingston, the worse offensive player, getting 603 pa??? Shouldn’t he be batting 8^th? The offense and defense for this team is jumbled and pitching won’t save it. You heard it here first…the Padres fall this year and fail to make the playoffs for the first time since season 15.

PREDICTION: 78-84

Los Angeles Dodgers (NL) wvwc9092 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 69-93

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: A pitching staff has to be pretty awful to give up 757 runs in the NL West. The Dodgers pitching just couldn’t rise to the occasion. The offense scored more runs than anyone else out west, yet the club only won 69 games. The pitching is god-awful, and mired by poor decisions. Giving a no-control pitcher like Edgar Diaz doesn’t give Dodger Nation hope for a playoff berth.

PREDICTION: 67-95

OUT: Alex Nolan, Marc Buhner, Josias Mercedes, Raul Barrios, Ivan Gomez, Bill Fleming, Edgar Sosa
IN: Carlos Gomez, Luis Rodriguez, Trevor Lewis, Harry Gross, Sam Russ

PREVIEW: The Dodgers had a season to forget. The stadium looks awfully empty when no one shows up. This city only supports winners.

The first good move is letting Alex Nolan go. He wasn’t much of a starter, and although he had a 1.20 whip, his FIP was 5.02 (who gives up 34 homers in a pitchers stadium???). Sometimes things don’t work. You move on. Oswaldo Estrada, and Ivan Seneca provide a great 1-2 punch at the head of the rotation. Gustavo “fring” Ciriaco is a terrific closer (if you don’t mind him only pitching a few times a week). The people let go were the right people, and I’m impressed those decisions were made.

The offense was HORRID last year. They only scored 585…second worst only to the rival Giants. Trevor Condroy wasn’t bad (2.5 war/74 runs), Kaz Yoshii was decent at 1.7 war/72 rc, and Arthur Loney (although not meant for 2b) tore the cover off the ball with a 5.8 War, the fun stopped there. Even Ivan Gomez had a horrible replacement level season.

Finally, a Dodger teams that seems to be constructed properly. Good defense, fast enough on the basepaths, and good enough pitching. The only thing missing is depth off the bench which you need in the NL.

PREDICTION: 82-80

San Francisco Giants (NL) tmantom3285 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 55-107

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Under first year owner tmantom, the Giants had their worst season in 11 years. he team that was a favorite to go deep into the playoffs every year, only managed to win 73 games. The Giants only managed to score 551 runs. It wasn’t just bad…it was HISTORICALLY bad. Is this team capable of winning? One hundred losses does not seem out of the question with the current assembly of players, but could it be more?

PREDICTION: 63-99

OUT: Manuel Johnson , Jared Milton, Lyle Backe, Kelvim Ramsey, Philip Coppolecci
IN: Omar Bonilla, Gio Tejada, David Newson, Ryuu Choi, Wilfredo Barrios

PREVIEW: This pitching staff is not nearly as bad as they look at first glance. First off, they strike a lot of people out. Redding, Wigginton, Tabaka, and Santana can hold their own. However, despite the K’s a lot is put on the defense which hasn’t been so good (2^nd worst in Kinsella).

Several players join the Giants to make them less of a joke. Bonilla and Newson FINALLY give them players that will get more than 5 War and 100 rc. Pitching got better with Choi as the new Ace. Now that’s five good pitchers.

To add up…compared to last season the offense, and fielding HAVE to be improved. So are they truly improved after all the changes? With a player like Alex Gabriel (zero range, 22 glove, almost no arm) playing in rightfield I just can’t take the Giants seriously.

PREDICTIONs: with the right players in the right places 85-77

Continuing to play people out of position or misusing players: 68-94

NL South

A few have risen up to challenge the Marlins in the NL South, but they are chasing their 8th straight playoff spot. Is this the year they get locked out?

Florida Marlins (NL) tedwmoore View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 99-63

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Before the window closes for Ted and the gang, they look to be making another run. Word from South Beach is that the Marlins will be looking to retool on the fly. With an owner like Ted you can bet they won’t fall very far. he Marlins are a premier team, and have remained so for the last six years. Book them into the playoffs for number seven and a chance to make even more noise this season.

PREDICTION: 104-58

OUT: Robinzon Alicea, Midre Hernandez, David Newson
IN: Yamid Quixote, Wladimir Ayala, Moose Finley, Brady Sierra, Elrod Riggs


PREVIEW: The Marlins made some moves and once again won the division (that’s seven playoffs in a row!). Times are changing and the dominance may be coming to an end.

“Obviously we are playing out the string with an expensive and aging roster”, said owner tedwmoore. “There is no replacing Alicea,” he said with a wistful tear in his eye “I’m still learning the names of the new players on my team.” This is someone talking like they know the end is coming and the taste is bittersweet.

Most of the bullpen is gone. Except mainstay Bryan “the sled-dog” Benoit as he is affectionately known in south Florida. The starting four returns so things are not totally dismal. Four of the top Five hitters return (Ramirez, Helms, Castillo, Marin). That group was responsible for 418 runs created, and 23.6 War (an average of 5.9). So, the offense will be okay.

The rest are fill ins. Guys like Yamid Quixote (he’s still ALIVE???), Wladimir “Wladie” Ayala for defense, Moose Finley (dude is 6’1 202 from MA…how is he a moose?), Brady Sierra (was a 3.8 war, 80 rc and 3 time all star in Texas), and one of the biggest pickups Ken Merloni from Toronto (a 4 time all star).

The Marlins are going to be JUST FINE.

PREDICTION: 101-61

St. Louis Cardinals (NL) cyben5150 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 88-74

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: The Cardinals used to have a questionable pitching staff, but under owner Cyben they have made strides (finishing with only 689 runs allowed). Unfortunately, the pendulum has swing the other way, and now offense needs fixed. The Cards have $29 million left to spend, but the big question is will they do it? It looks like prospects are getting the lions share while the team continues their decent into the cellar.

PREDICTION: 71-91

OUT: Daniel Olson, William Richard, Aaron Hernandez, Victor Flores
IN: Rob Ramirez, Placido Manzanillo, Dana Barrett, Harold Slowey, Brian Kwon, Johnny Kennedy, Rob Ramirez

PREVIEW: How in the world could I doubt cyben and his Cards? I mean, the guy has 17 playoffs in 28 HBD seasons (but none in Kinsella…yet). This is a team that improves EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

The young guys are moving forward at a fast pace. Alex Garcia is turning into a star (117 runs created, 6.3 war), and Francisco Melendez took a step forward (2.6 war). One thing I noticed that made me scratch my head…what’s up with this teams BABIP??? Only one of the top ten made it to .300 and a few were substantially below even what the league average was (somewhere around .275 which is unusual…maybe good league defense???). It’s strange to say, but this team could be BETTER.

To add to the “better” theme, several prospects are on their way up. We all know how prospects usually do in their first year but Barrett, and Manzanillo should instantly contribute on both sides of the ball. Harold Slowy is on the short list already for gold glove at SS. Aaron Feliciano doesn’t look quite as ready, and has health problems. The Cards suffered a hug break going after Brian Kwon, then losing him to the 60 day DL. Ouch. Rob Ramirez was a good pick up also.

Overall, this team is dangerous with a capital D. Watch out for “the kids”.

PREDICTION: 86-76

Atlanta Braves (NL) bux_express View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 85-77

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: The Braves made a splash a few years ago as owner Bux rebuilt the Atlanta chop shop into a contender. The Braves play in a tough division and are tougher for it. With so many good NL teams, they have as good a chance as anyone to represent the senior circuit in the NL.

PREDICTION: 96-66

OUT: Sven Barclay, Joe Canseco, Gerald Sasser, Justin Lidge, Albert Castillo
IN: Kazuo Hong, Rick Mayer, Preston Norman

PREVIEW: The Braves actually outplayed their Exp Pct by about six games. They should have been below .500 due to the offense. The pitching stays solid with Manto, Tabaka, Tejada, and Wickman. The 5 starter is in flux and appears to be Matt Richard (who posted a 6.92 FIP and 1.80 Whip). Gerald Sasser was optioned to AAA despite a solid contribution.

For an offensively anemic team, something needed to change. They needed more out of Hughie Barney. If he’s going to lead the team in plate appearances, he needs to contribute more than 0.9 war and create 72 runs. Denny Torres is another example with 638 plate appearances, a 2.1 War and only 74 runs created. Justin Lidge leaving for the great white north of Montreal leaves a BIGGER gaping whole (losing 5.8 war, and 104 runs). I’m sure bux will enjoy the draft picks. Jackie Gragg had a solid season, but age is catching up. Khoury Hayes only saw 374 plate appearances, but he was barely above average as well (actually 0.0 War).

The window appears to have closed on the Braves. But for a guy with 42 playoffs in 87 seasons I just can’t close the door. What does bux have up his sleeve this time?

PREDICTION: 82-80

Houston Astros (NL) dherz_263 View Hardball Dynasty Profile

LAST YEARS RECORD: 67-95

LAST YEARS PREVIEW: Dherz made some eye popping trades early in the year as he rebuilds the Astros. The minor leagues are now stocked with tremendous players. With the money, it appears that DHerz is finding every broke down old veteran that he can find. At the time of this writing they are still unassigned so it’s interesting to see who makes the club.

PREDICTION: 52-110

OUT: Sadie Wells, Quinton Hobbes, Al Parker
IN: a lot see below

PREVIEW: I’m sure glad I was wrong about the Astros. Maybe the 10 cent beer nights gave Minute Maid Park a little energy?

One of the most interesting things I’ve ever seen is the new Minute Maid Retirement home which resides just around the corner. The franchise set a record for retirement. Maybe if they all got together they could buy the franchise since player payroll is currently only at $18 million? Hmmm

I kid of course. DHerz is an evil genius and is doing some fun things with the franchise. He hit the waiver wire HARD going after rule V and cast offs (welcome Jonathan Beckett, Steven Shouse, Pat Donald, and Fred Brinkly, Reynel Gomez, and Alving Beltre). The kicker…only Brinkly and Gomez are over 30! Rule V also paid off with Alejandro Vargas (3^rd on my list). Pat Donald should be interesting (I didn’t have anywhere for him).

This team will look a lot like the real Astros. A bunch of no names and cast offs. Which will somehow win 70 games. “It’s not going to be very pretty, but I think if the pitching holds, we can be competitive.” Said a cigar smoking dherz from his plush office overlooking the retirement home. He seems like a man completely at home and biding his time. Time will tell.

PREDICTION: 70-92