6. New York Mets (91-71) at 3. Montreal Expos (95-67)
This series features a pair of teams that were forced to scrape and claw until the regular season’s final day to secure playoff holds. Montreal lost out on the second seed by a game, but outlasted Cincinnati to claim a fifth consecutive NL North crown. The Mets were forced to turn to uber-ace Walt Hernandez on the final day of the regular season just to get into the playoffs, winning a season-ending series with the Nats and stealing the final wildcard spot by a single game.
The Mets feature baseball’s third best pitching staff and posted a team ERA of 3.55 in the regular season. New York will need its stable of young starters to shine if it hopes to advance against a Montreal offense that finished the year with 867 runs scored, the top producing offense in the National League.
The Expos had little trouble with New York’s pitching in the regular season, winning seven of the 10 regular season tilts between the clubs. With a respectable pitching staff and high-powered offense I see little trouble ahead for the Expos, who should survive to take on Philadelphia in the divisional round.
Prediction: Montreal handles the Mets, 3-0
5. Cincinnati Reds (94-68) at 4. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
Exceeding all expectations, the Reds were one of the National League’s top teams this season, vying for the NL North title until the final weekend of the season. Losing out to Montreal may have been a blessing in disguise as Cincinnati travels to San Francisco for its wildcard matchup. The Giants cruised through the first half of the season but were just 33-38 after the All-Star break and had to fend off the hard charging Diamondbacks at season’s end.
This will be a series of polar-opposites, as the Reds led the NL with 313 homeruns and finished third with 846 runs scored and will rely heavily on the bat of MVP candidate Douglas Carpenter (.304, 61 HR, 137 RBI); while San Fran counters with stellar pitching highlighted by Cy Young hopeful Graham Ardoin (16-5, 2.57 ERA). Ardoin and the Giants posted the third-best team ERA in the NL this season, at 3.80.
Prediction: Cincinnati’s offense is too much for the G-men, 3-1
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
AL Wildcard Prognostications
6. Anaheim Angels (86-76) at 3. Oakland Athletics (86-76)
The good news? Despite finishing the season on a four-game slide the A’s won a tiebreak to claim the American League West. The bad news? Oakland faces divisional foe Anaheim in a tricky first round matchup.
While the Athletics won the season series six games to four, the Halos rebounded from a season-opening four game sweep in Oakland winning the final two series.
The Angels finished the regular season ranked fourth in the AL with a .275 team average and scored 843 runs, fifth in the junior circuit; while the Athletics are buoyed by a solid pitching staff that posted a 3.90 team ERA, second only to the Yankees in the AL.
Anaheim has to be considered the favorite in this series as the Angels have been a playoff team in each of the last eight seasons, including World Champions two years ago. Oakland, making its second playoff appearance in the last three years, will need dominant pitching as its lineup won’t be able to keep pace with the Halos in a slugfest.
Prediction: Angels take the series, 3-1
5. Charlotte Knights (90-72) at 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
The Knights cruised to the first wildcard after losing the division race to the juggernaut Rangers in the season’s first month and actually finished with the American League’s third best record. Toronto took advantage of a weak AL North to claim the franchise’s first-ever division title, finishing two games above .500 in the regular season.
With offenses that are nearly identical, Charlotte holds a slight pitching edge and an excellent bullpen. If Toronto sluggers J.J. Perez and Carlos Cruz can get to Charlotte’s starters early, the Blue Jays should win this series.
Prediction: Toronto wins 3-2
The good news? Despite finishing the season on a four-game slide the A’s won a tiebreak to claim the American League West. The bad news? Oakland faces divisional foe Anaheim in a tricky first round matchup.
While the Athletics won the season series six games to four, the Halos rebounded from a season-opening four game sweep in Oakland winning the final two series.
The Angels finished the regular season ranked fourth in the AL with a .275 team average and scored 843 runs, fifth in the junior circuit; while the Athletics are buoyed by a solid pitching staff that posted a 3.90 team ERA, second only to the Yankees in the AL.
Anaheim has to be considered the favorite in this series as the Angels have been a playoff team in each of the last eight seasons, including World Champions two years ago. Oakland, making its second playoff appearance in the last three years, will need dominant pitching as its lineup won’t be able to keep pace with the Halos in a slugfest.
Prediction: Angels take the series, 3-1
5. Charlotte Knights (90-72) at 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
The Knights cruised to the first wildcard after losing the division race to the juggernaut Rangers in the season’s first month and actually finished with the American League’s third best record. Toronto took advantage of a weak AL North to claim the franchise’s first-ever division title, finishing two games above .500 in the regular season.
With offenses that are nearly identical, Charlotte holds a slight pitching edge and an excellent bullpen. If Toronto sluggers J.J. Perez and Carlos Cruz can get to Charlotte’s starters early, the Blue Jays should win this series.
Prediction: Toronto wins 3-2
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Correction
I previously reported that Montreal had the first tiebreaker over Philly in the event of a tie...WRONG. Philly took the season series, so they win the tie and get the #2 seed.
Mets-Nationals Play-In Highlights Game 162
Game 162 still holds some intrigue for at least 2 teams in Kinsella this year, as the Mets and Nationals square off this afternoon to see who gets the last NL wildcard spot.
Mets GM dherz has already signaled his intent to start ace Walt Hernandez on 3 days' rest; D.C. skipper ea is expected to counter with lefty D.T. Porzio, although the N.Y. lineup's preference for southpaws may lead him to go with Tom Durham on short rest.
In any event, it's a sold-out Nationals Park to see the last remaining playoff fight later today.
The AL Playoff pairings are set:
#4 Toronto and #5 Charlotte go at it in the one Division Play-In Series, with the winner drawing the #1 seed Yankees.
The other Division Play-In features division rivals #3 Oakland and #6 Anaheim - the winner gets #2 Texas.
The NL Playoff Pairings have a few more possibilities remaining:
The #4-#5 and #1 bracket is set: Atlanta has secured the #1 seed and awaits the winner of the #4 San Francisco - #5 Cincinnati Division Round.
Montreal and Philadelphia are TIED for the #2 seed. The Expos take it with a win, as they have a big lead in the first tiebreaker (division record). The Expos host the Brewers and the Phils are at Pittsburgh to decide the #2 and #3 seeds. Whoever comes out on top there gets a first-round bye; the loser takes the #3 seed and faces the winner of the NY-D.C. showdown (#6 seed) in the other Division Round.
Mets GM dherz has already signaled his intent to start ace Walt Hernandez on 3 days' rest; D.C. skipper ea is expected to counter with lefty D.T. Porzio, although the N.Y. lineup's preference for southpaws may lead him to go with Tom Durham on short rest.
In any event, it's a sold-out Nationals Park to see the last remaining playoff fight later today.
The AL Playoff pairings are set:
#4 Toronto and #5 Charlotte go at it in the one Division Play-In Series, with the winner drawing the #1 seed Yankees.
The other Division Play-In features division rivals #3 Oakland and #6 Anaheim - the winner gets #2 Texas.
The NL Playoff Pairings have a few more possibilities remaining:
The #4-#5 and #1 bracket is set: Atlanta has secured the #1 seed and awaits the winner of the #4 San Francisco - #5 Cincinnati Division Round.
Montreal and Philadelphia are TIED for the #2 seed. The Expos take it with a win, as they have a big lead in the first tiebreaker (division record). The Expos host the Brewers and the Phils are at Pittsburgh to decide the #2 and #3 seeds. Whoever comes out on top there gets a first-round bye; the loser takes the #3 seed and faces the winner of the NY-D.C. showdown (#6 seed) in the other Division Round.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Handicapping the AL Stretch Drive
The AL's pretty tame compared to the NL's assorted permutations, but there are still a few variations possible. New York and Texas are set, and Charlotte has all but nailed down the first wildcard, but the North and West still hold at least a little intrigue.
North
The Jays are 5 up with 10 to play and no winning teams left on the schedule. Minnesota has the toughest schedule of the 3 contenders with a set against Oakland, but they do have a series with Toronto. They're 4-3 against the Jays this year need a sweep there to maintain any hope for a miracle. Detroit doesn't have any winning teams left, either, but at 6 back just about has to win out. Prediction: Toronto hangs in.
West
A veritable NL-like (this year) race, made more interesting by the certainty that the runnerup will get the #2 wildcard. Oakland has a cushy schedule with only Portland left with a +.500 record. Anaheim's is even easier, with the White Sox coming up. Portland has to be the sentimental choice after the Scot Pickford shoulder explosion (8 starts after the Beavers gave a couple of prospects for him on a 1-year rental), but the schedule does not favor them: Texas, Anaheim and Oakland coming up. Prediction: Crystal ball says Anaheim nips the A's. Oakland in as the second wildcard.
North
The Jays are 5 up with 10 to play and no winning teams left on the schedule. Minnesota has the toughest schedule of the 3 contenders with a set against Oakland, but they do have a series with Toronto. They're 4-3 against the Jays this year need a sweep there to maintain any hope for a miracle. Detroit doesn't have any winning teams left, either, but at 6 back just about has to win out. Prediction: Toronto hangs in.
West
A veritable NL-like (this year) race, made more interesting by the certainty that the runnerup will get the #2 wildcard. Oakland has a cushy schedule with only Portland left with a +.500 record. Anaheim's is even easier, with the White Sox coming up. Portland has to be the sentimental choice after the Scot Pickford shoulder explosion (8 starts after the Beavers gave a couple of prospects for him on a 1-year rental), but the schedule does not favor them: Texas, Anaheim and Oakland coming up. Prediction: Crystal ball says Anaheim nips the A's. Oakland in as the second wildcard.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Handicapping the NL Stretch Drive
We have great races everywhere in the NL, with 10 teams still in contention. Here's the breakdown (including my guaranteed-wrong fearless predictions):
North
Cincy and Montreal have the easiest schedules of all 10 contenders; the Cubbies have one of the toughest, including 6 with the Reds and Expos. Cincy's been getting away with shaky pitching all year - I'm predicting this bites 'em down the stretch. Montreal wins it, Cincy 2nd, Cubbies 3rd.
East
The Phils have opened up a 3-game lead, but the Mets' tough pitching and D will keep them in it. Schedule favors Philly and NY slightly over D.C. I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Mets surge to win it on the last day. Phils and Nationals battling for wildcard.
South
Now that Atlanta has opened a 7 game lead, the question is whether The Cards can stay in the wildcard race.
West
This one will come down to the Giants-Diamondbacks head-to-head season-ending series. Schedule favors San Fran a little (Brewers, Expos and Dodgers - Snakes have Pirates, Phillies and Padres), but I'm predicting Arizona pulls it out.
Wildcard
The North teams have the edge at the moment, but Chicago's schedule just looks too tough. Schedule's a Cardinal-killer, too. I like the Reds for the first wildcard - that leaves Philly and D.C. battling for the last spot. They have a head-to-head coming up...bold prediction: Somebody out of 1o teams has to pull a collapse...it's a replay of '64. D.C. sweeps Phil in that series and picks off the last playoff spot.
North
Cincy and Montreal have the easiest schedules of all 10 contenders; the Cubbies have one of the toughest, including 6 with the Reds and Expos. Cincy's been getting away with shaky pitching all year - I'm predicting this bites 'em down the stretch. Montreal wins it, Cincy 2nd, Cubbies 3rd.
East
The Phils have opened up a 3-game lead, but the Mets' tough pitching and D will keep them in it. Schedule favors Philly and NY slightly over D.C. I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Mets surge to win it on the last day. Phils and Nationals battling for wildcard.
South
Now that Atlanta has opened a 7 game lead, the question is whether The Cards can stay in the wildcard race.
West
This one will come down to the Giants-Diamondbacks head-to-head season-ending series. Schedule favors San Fran a little (Brewers, Expos and Dodgers - Snakes have Pirates, Phillies and Padres), but I'm predicting Arizona pulls it out.
Wildcard
The North teams have the edge at the moment, but Chicago's schedule just looks too tough. Schedule's a Cardinal-killer, too. I like the Reds for the first wildcard - that leaves Philly and D.C. battling for the last spot. They have a head-to-head coming up...bold prediction: Somebody out of 1o teams has to pull a collapse...it's a replay of '64. D.C. sweeps Phil in that series and picks off the last playoff spot.
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