World Kinsella: February 2009

The All-Star break seems like a perfect time to look back at my preseason analysis and see how things have panned out. Overall, I don’t think my formulas are turning out too bad. (Playoff teams in bold, if season were over now)

NL North Predictions
1. Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
2. Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
3. Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
4. Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15

NL North Mid-Season
1. Cincinnati Reds: 53-38, NL #4, RS #5, RA #11
2. Montreal Expos: 51-40, NL #5, RS #6, RA #9
3. Chicago Cubs: 47-44, NL #7, RS #7, RA #8
4. Milwaukee Brewers: 34-57, NL #15, RS #8, RA #16

The Reds stormed out of the gate and have been the surprise to team in the division. Unfortunately, they have fallen a bit back to earth and are still vulnerable to the Expos and Cubs. (I know, meh) The Cubs and Expos have performed below expectations to this point but are still in striking distance. As expected, the Brewers have been a non-factor in the playoff race.

NL East Predictions
1. Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
2. Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14

NL East Mid-Season
1. Washington D.C. Nationals: 63-28, NL #2, RS #1, RA #4
2. Philadelphia Phillies: 58-33, NL #3, RS #4, RA #2
3. New York Mets: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #14, RA #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #9, RA #14

The Nationals and Phillies have been pretty close to what was expected from them. The Nationals have gotten a big boost from the MVP-like first half of Hayes Swann and his unfortunate injury may knock them down a peg. The Mets young pitching looks to be as good as expected so if this team can find some bats in future seasons, they can start playing in October. The Pirates have won quite a few close games and have kept their record more respectable than expected, despite their dreadful pitching.

NL South Predictions
1. St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
2. Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
3. Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
4. Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16

NL South Mid-Season
1. Florida Marlins: 44-47, NL #8, RS #10, RA #7
2. St. Louis Cardinals: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #11, RA #6
3. Atlanta Braves: 37-54, NL #14, RS #16, RA #3
4. Houston Astros: 33-58, NL #16, RS #12, RA #15

The NL South remains the weakest division in all of Kinsella, with the under .500 Marlins leading the way with middle of the pack offense and pitching. The Cardinals have been major underachievers at the plate and could still run away with the division if the bats start performing as expected. The Braves have been the most out of balance team in the league as their abysmal offense has consisted of home runs or nothing. (And I guess I was wrong with my previous comment believing that the Braves offense would be better than their ranking suggested.) Their pitchers must be getting very frustrated with their brilliance this season not being supported. The Astros were expected to be at the bottom and have not disappointed.

NL West Predictions
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
2. San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
3. San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13

NL West Mid-Season
1. San Francisco Giants: 66-25, NL #1, RS #2, RA #1
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-41, NL #6, RS #3, RA #10
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #13, RA #13
4. San Diego Padres: 38-53, NL #13, RS #15, RA #12

The Giants are smoking hot and are excelling at every aspect of the game. With a 16 game lead at the break, it sure seems as if their 2nd NL West banner will be going up soon. The D’backs have been very surprising as their ratings indicated they would have a middle of the pack offense and dominant pitching, but reality has shown almost the complete opposite. They are still in great shape for a wild card run, especially if their pitching gets on track. I thought it was pretty funny when I saw that I had the Dodgers hitting and pitching both ranked #13 and now they are #13 in runs scored and runs against. The Padres are having a horrific season at the plate and can almost count themselves out as a result.

AL North Predictions
1. Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
2. Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
3. Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
4. Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16

AL North Mid-Season
1. Detroit Tigers: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #9, RA #6
2. Minnesota Twins: 44-47, AL #9, RS #4, RA #11
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 41-50, AL #12, RS #8, RA #15
4. Chicago White Sox: 39-52, AL #13T, RS #14, RA #13

The Tigers have exceeded expectations this season, but just can’t seem to pull away in the AL’s weakest division. The Minnesota Twins seem to annually fall short of my expectations for them, yet still remain in striking distance of another division title. The Blue Jays offense has been decent, but the pitching has been horrid with rookie Sidney Wells as the only bright spot. The White Sox have been much better this season as they can eclipse last season’s win total very soon.

AL East Predictions
1. New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
2. Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
3. Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
4. Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14

AL East Mid-Season
1. New York Yankees: 56-35, AL #2, RS #2, RA #2
2. Boston Red Sox: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #12, RA #7
3. Cleveland Indians: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #7, RA #10
4. Baltimore Orioles: 35-56, AL #15, RS #10, RA #16

The Yankees have been pretty close to their predicted results and it’s only their poor luck in 1-run games (8-15) that is keeping them from putting away the division. The Red Sox are in the thick of the wild card race and have performed pretty close to expectations. Meanwhile the Indians have also performed very close to their expectations, but unfortunately it hasn’t resulted in similar numbers in the W-L columns. Not surprisingly, the Orioles are pretty much done.

AL South Predictions
1. Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
2. Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
4. Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15

AL South Mid-Season
1. Texas Rangers: 61-30, AL #1, RS #1, RA #8
2. Charlotte Knights: 46-45, AL #8, RS #5, RA #9
3. Kansas City Royals: 39-52, AL #14T, RS #15, RA #12
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 23-68, AL #16, RS #16, RA #14

The Rangers have been every bit as good as expected with a very scary team of young sluggers. The Knights have only been slightly below expectations for offense and pitching performance, but their record has them in the middle of the pack. I expect a better W-L record in the 2nd half that will see them challenge for a wild card. The Royals and Rays are both relatively devoid of ML talent and have a few seasons of rebuilding ahead.

AL West Predictions
1. Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
2. Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
3. Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
4. Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12

AL West Mid-Season
1T. Seattle Mariners: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #13, RA #1
1T. Oakland Athletics: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #6, RA #5
3. Portland Beavers: 50-41, AL #5, RS #3, RA #4
4. Anaheim Angels: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #11, RA #3

The Mariners pitching has been spectacular and has carried their weak offense and made them the division’s surprise team. Oakland and Portland have had more balanced attacks this season and neither is that much of a surprise to be in the thick of the playoff race. In the tight three-team struggle, Portland has to be the favorites to take it down and it will be interesting to see if Seattle’s weak offense will allow them to stay in the race. The most disappointing team of the season would have to be the AL’s winningest franchise, the Anaheim Angels. Their pitching has been great as expected but their offense has been nothing but Travis Murphy, who is having a spectacular season.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Season #6 Mid-Season Analysis

Season 6 Power Rankings Poll #1 Results

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Season 6 ALCS Poll Results