World Kinsella

Marsrover Takes Over Florida

2011-02-06T06:30:00.000-08:00

Former Expos GM marsrover21 has returned to baseball and now looks to make the Florida Marlins relevant again. The architect of the midworld powerhouse ‘Spos, marsrover21 brings his experienced hand to a franchise that hasn’t even made the playoffs since S3, when they won it all. The new GM made a big splash his first week on the job by trading away young phenom Jim Rowan for established vet Branch Vitiello. Although they won only 75 games last year, marsrover21 seems to think that this team is ready to make the jump to playoff contender. Time will tell if mars’ moves were shrewd team-building or just an overeager executive trying to reinvigorate a beleagured fanbase.

Prediction: 90 wins.

NL North Offseason Report

2011-01-23T19:06:00.000-08:00

Moving over to the NL North, we've had a massive FA spending binge by the Cubs, a youth movement by the Expos, a couple of shrewd moves by the Brewers, and an intriguing strategy by the Reds.

The division-champ Brewers picked up a pair of nice free agent bats: 1B Brett Stuart and C Jolbert Romero. Add the promotion Season 10's #7 overall, SP Richard Cameron, and already-tough Milwaukee becomes the odds-on favorite to repeat.

Chicago was perhaps Kinsella's biggest free-agent spender, luring SP's Sidney Wells and Rod Dupler; relievers Warren Giles and Jorge Sierra; OF's Earl Jorgensen, Carlos Cruz, and Pat Freeman; and IF Jason Brewington. They also re-signed C Jolbert Saenz and 2B Hub Veres. The Cubbies may well give Milwaukee a run...at bare minimum they'll score a lot more runs with Jorgensen and Cruz in the OF.

Cincinnati is still incomplete. No FA signings, no trades, no promotions and 17 players on the ML roster thus far. "It's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see if it works out for'em."

Montreal said "sayonara" to a boatload of free agents and has used free agency, trades and promotions to restock. They moved P J.P. Taveras for reliever Peter Pan and a pair of prospects, brought CF Scott Perry home in exchange for Manuel Martin, and signed SP Nelson Stockton to a 2-year deal. The farm system produced 1B David Fernandez (Season 7 IFA), SP Greg Hewson (Season 9 #28 overall), SP Paul Kim (Season 6 #43 overall) and SP Manuel Samuel (Season 9 #48 overall). Could be another down year for the Expos, but the youth movement has begun.

One-On-One With Kinsella Commish Overeasy

2011-01-20T16:37:00.000-08:00

In a futile attempt to overcome the boredom of Spring Training, "World Kinsella" recently sat down for a candid give-and-take with overeasy on all things Kinsella...and a few other things.

Who is overeasy in real life?
Overeasy is John Coffman, a 36 year old happily married man with three wonderful boys (Almost 5, Almost 3, and 1) who works as an electrical engineer for a small consulting firm near Portland, OR.

Do you develop "man-crushes" on your HBD players?
I wouldn't exactly call it a man crush like sparrow and Dee Dee, but I would call myself a fan of Brandon Sutton and will probably keep him around longer than I should.

What are the most under-rated and over-rated player ratings and why?
Under-rated - Contact: High contact guys seem to get a boost to their stats above what you would expect from their other ratings and when combined with high eye they become an OBP machine. Pitch ratings: Seems that a lot of the primary focus is on control and splits, but a pitcher isn't truly able to be their best without a P1 of 80+ (love to see 90+) and a P2 of 70+. It's what separates Walt Hernandez from Kordell Becker.
Over-rated - Power: It has the shortest lifespan of the key ratings and many hitters are near worthless once it drops. GB/FB - Some folks profess that it is very important, but I haven't seen any good evidence that it matters too much, though I usually like to have a good defense all around.

Favorite moment of your HBD career?
It was very unexpected and satisfying to win my first world series with the Yankees in Kinsella. It felt great to have that burden lifted early in my HBD career as I would hate to be going now with 30+ seasons and not have at least one.

If you could change one thing about HBD, what would it be and why?
I would change HBD so that it would become my real job and I could get paid for being the league commissioner of Kinsella (unfortunately that $5 HBD credit doesn't pay the bills) and for my 4 GM jobs.

F, Marry or Kill:

a) Angelina Joile - K, Jennifer Connelly - M, Marissa Miller - F
Somebody has to stop Angelina from adopting every orphan throughout the world. A lame movie called Career Opportunities came out near the end of my high school years and from that moment I was hooked on Connelly. I think now she could stand to gain a bit of weight to get her curves back, but as her husband I'll would make sure she eats. Never had an SI subscription so not that familiar with Miller, but she looks alright.

b) Sarah Palin - F, Nancy Pelosi - K, Oprah - M
Of the 3, Palin seemed the most do able. I'd consider myself a moderate Democrat, so I would love to get rid of Pelosi as a major face of the party. Oprah is loaded! And with the size of those mansions, you could get lost and only see each other every few weeks if you wanted.

c) jclarkbaker, fellman9, Sockless_Joe - Abstain
I don't play for that team, not that there is anything wrong with that, so that eliminates the F and M options. The last thing I want to do is damage the retention rate of the highest retention world, so K is off the table as well.

AL North Offseason Report

2011-01-16T11:46:00.000-08:00

Let's start our offseason review in the AL North, where the Tigers made perhaps Kinsella's biggest single move. They plopped down $74 million to sign former Atlanta and Philly slugger, 4-time MVP and dead-lock Hall of Famer Dee Dee Hutton for 5 years.

Dee Dee will be charged with reviving an offense that scored only 714 runs last year, and he'll be getting some added help. Detroit has also signed CF Wilt Benes, a speedy lefty-swinging CF with an eagle eye. The move may allow Damian Chen to move in to second base against righties, bumping Trenidad Ruiz to a utility and vL platooner role.

Tigers GM jdrake27 had some optimistic comments about the signings: "Well, it was a pretty easy decision. I had the cap room and wanted to try to spark my offense. Hutton is clearly a monster so I am hoping he'll be my older version of Miggy Cabrera. I like the speed of Benes and am hoping he'll be my Austin Jackson. I think Graves and company produce this year as well, so between that and the two signings I'm hoping I can make a run at a playoff spot."

Detroit's spending contrasts with division champ Chicago, who seems content to keep developing its pipeline of young talent. Flash Tessmer, a Season 10 1st-rounder, appears ready to join the already-impressive staff.

Toronto started strong last year but faded due to pitching, and they've hit both the trade market and free agency to address that. Trades landed reliever Buddy Lawson and starter Spike Henley (they also swapped CF's with Montreal, getting Manuel Martin); a late FA signing brought in SP Rusty Little. They've also jumped Season 11's #1, 1B Victor Blanco, from AA to the Bigs...he looks like he's ready.

The Twins tapped free agency for a trio of hitters: Darryl Whitaker, who was the cheapest 100 RBI money could buy last year; Jesus Figueroa, a solid OF defender who could also see 3B action; and Lonny Chavez, a bargain at $4.8mm per year. They also promoted Season 9's #1 pick, fireballing SP John Pryce.

Looks like everybody in the North could be better this year. The Sox still have to be the odds-on favorite to win the division, but keep an eye on the Tigers as a dark-horse wild card contender.

Vitiello Era Over In Tampa Bay

2011-01-14T13:59:00.000-08:00

What started in Season 10 as a grand dream of multiple World Series titles has come to an end in Tampa Bay.

Branch Vitiello, the centerpiece of Kinsella's most-extravagent-ever free agent spending spree, has been traded.

The Rays were young, cocky and coming off a surprise WS trip in Season 9 (they lost 4-3 to the Giants) when they committed a total of $240MM to Vitiello, Kordell Becker and Matthew Crosby in Season 10 free agency. After losing the WS in Seasons 10 and 11, salary pressures and Becker's spotty performance forced the team to start dismantling. With the ascendancy of Oakland to AL domination and a first-round playoff loss to the Yankees last season, management concluded it was time to re-tool. Crosby's option was declined and Vitiello went on the market.

"We were fortunate to get a good number of strong bids," said GM blanch13. "The White Sox were certainly players and the Red Sox made an impressive offer. Ultimately, we thought Florida's offer of Jim Rowan was the best for our club."

Vitiello went 63-28 in 4 seasons with the Rays, posting sub - 3.00 ERA's in 3 and logging 200+ IP every year. He won the AL Cy Young with the club in Season 10.

With Vitiello moving on to Florida and Blaine Lowry traded to the Dodgers for 3B Luis Flores, the Rays find themselves in the dual unfamiliar positions of having cash and needing pitching. With the FA market for pitching looking slim, it might be a record-setting (in a bad way) year for team ERA. It appears the responsibility will fall to Vic Gonzalez, Placido Santana & co. to slug the Rays to victory this year.

Season 13 AL Previews - West

2010-11-06T06:08:00.000-07:00

AL West

Season 12 Recap: The A's improved by 5 wins (to 112) en route to their 5th straight west title and 6th in 7 years. Anaheim dropped 6 wins to 76, Portland dropped 4 to 73, and Seattle fell off 1 game to 56 wins. Oakland survived a 2nd-round playoff scare by Texas to go on to its first Kinsella Championship. Among the major awards, Oakland's Javier Valdes took home the Rookie Of The Year.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 1st, Team ERA - 1st, Fielding % - 3rd
Sayonara: OF Aaron Holiday, DH Darryl Whitaker, CF Enrique Pena (free agency)
New Faces: none via trade or free agency
Rookie Possibilities: Ugueth Ontiveros (originally a Season 8 IFA by Toronto) go into 9 games last year and appears set to start at 2B. Season 6 supplemental pick Willie Unamuno appeared in 14 games last year and could open the season in a long relief role. Season 10 IFA Juan Palacios got 8 starts last year and could claim a SP job. Season 5 supplemenatal pick Raul Aguilar and 2nd-rounder Hipolito Hernandez could land a relief jobs.
OUTLOOK:
No holes anywhere in this lineup: 1B Castillo, SS Chang and C Simms set the table; then the Murderers' Row of Carpenter, Stewart, Valdes and Suzuki drive 'em in. Javier Gonzalez will win a Cy Young one of these years; he heads a rotation that from top to bottom, is probably the AL's best. There's no "probably" about the status of the bullpen, it is the best in Kinsella with F.P. Cambridge, Enrique Cordero and Gerardo Rodriguez getting the bulk of work.

ANAHEIM ANGELS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs -5th, Team ERA - 12th, Fielding % - 16th
Sayonara: SP Patrick Rivera, IF Javier Arias, C Kid Barfield, RP Stan Blauser, SP Moe Reynolds (free agency)
New Faces: SP Brad Woodall (trade); CF Enrique Pena, SP Frank Reagan (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: C Dutch Anderson (Rule V pick - originally a 9th-rounder by Toronto) has made the roster as a backup. Season 10's 1st-rounder (#11 overall) Rico Mendoza could help soon, maybe not this year.
OUTLOOK:
Pena adds some on-base skill to the top of the lineup; Travis Murphy's RBI totals should see a corresponding jump. Francisco Beltre, Brad Jackson, Lonny Chavez and Dingo Holbert provide lineup protection for Murphy. The Angels will score plenty of runs, but the fate of their season resides with the staff. Luis Pineiro is reliable, but Frank Reagan is a step down from Patrick Rivera and the rest of the rotation is a conflagration in progress. The short relievers have struggled in recent seasons - they'll need to improve (and they all can), for they're sure to get a lot of work.

PORTLAND BEAVERS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 11th, Team ERA - 15th, Fielding % - T 9th
Sayonara: OF Les Graham, SP Al Kennedy (free agency); OF Roberto Molina, OF Richard Satou, OF Juan Pulido, SP Davey Aquino (released); SP Miguel Rosario (trade)
New Faces: SP Roy Whiteside (trade), 2B Julian Hernandez, RP Branch Crosby, RP Shane Bradley (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: Rule V pickup Dario Lawrence (Season 9 supplemental pick by Milwaukee) has made the team as the starting RF. Another Rule V'er, Sherman Redding (Season 8 supplemental pick by Texas), has made the team but is out for a couple of weeks with a broken wrist. Yet a third Rule V'er, LR Michael Lewis (Season 9 2nd rounder by Kansas City), has made the bullpen. AAA 1B Patrick Kipling (Season 9 1st-rounder of Tampa Bay) is ready to contribute, but it's unclear when he'll get the call. Same story for IF Brad Carlson, the team's first pick in Season 10, and IF Benji Castro, a Season 10 IFA.
OUTLOOK:
Portland's lineup was adequate last year and is improving. Harold Benson and Tom Tucker may not be prototype top-of-the-order hitters, but they'll get the job done. Patrick Kipling has the look of a ROY contender, and Jerry Grieve and Louie Mercedes are capable run producers. Pitching needs more attention. Recent waiver pickup Brant Tebeau isn't the answer. Nor is FA Roy Whiteside. Keep an eye on Bip Wilkinson, a Season 6 supplemental pick who pitched well in 13 starts last year and already has 5 wind this season. Paulie Winn is a top-flight closer but the rest of the 'pen is sketchy.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 15th, Team ERA - 16th, Fielding % - 15th
Sayonara: OF Bernie Rosa, RP Haywood Charles, IF Guillermo Cortez, 2B Alfredo Gonzalez, RP Sparky Graham, IF Nash Ruffin (free agency)
New Faces: CF Jackson Shuey, IF Brian Grey, RF Vic Frias (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: Rule V draftee Dicky Cyr (Season 9 3rd-rounder by the Giants) has made the team as a long reliever. Dicky Watson (Season 11's first-rounder) starts in AAA but could get the call early on.
OUTLOOK:
Seattle struggled to score last year and is likely to do so again. DH James Hunter and 2B Craig Frazier are certainly ML hitters, but they don't have a lot of company in that designation. Don't be surprised if Hunter has a new address by mid-season. The Mariners didn't do a lot to the staff in the off-season, but there appears to be new life on the hill. Starters Ted Dirks (1.94 ERA) and Carter Torres (2.96 ERA) are off to torrid starts, and 4 relievers are under a 3.60 ERA. Nice to get that kind of pitching, but the bats are really going to have to pick up for the Mariners to make any kind of noise.

PREDICTIONS
Anaheim is off to a great start at 18-8, but I can't see them standing up to the Oakland juggernaut for long. The A's will win going away and get the AL's #1 seed again. Watch Anaheim's pitching and especially the bullpen - if they can keep up anywhere near the current level (for example, closer Howie Voight is 10-for-10 in saves and has allowed 0 earned runs) they'll make Oakland work and will be a wild card favorite. Portland should be improved but will still be third; Seattle brings up the rear again.

Recap of the early opening games

2010-10-27T09:38:00.000-07:00

National League
Cincinnati took its home opener, 5-3, over Montreal, when Hector Bennett belted a 3-run homer in the 7th. Ivan Saenz got the win in relief and Chuck Vaughn notched the save.

In Washington, D.C., new leadoff man Damion Stock tripled, homered and scored both runs for the Nationals in a 2-1 squeaker over Pittsburgh. Les Walker tossed 7 scoreless innings for the home team, and Alan Lucasiewicz got the save.

Jose Roque scored on Hector Price's fielder's choice grounder in the bottom of the 7th, and that was the deciding run in Florida's home win over Atlanta, 6-5. Gabe Barrett smacked 2 homers for the Marlins, Philip Kingston got the rare 1-pitch win, and Denny Watson took the save with 2 innings of work.

6 San Francisco pitchers scattered 9 hits and shut out the Padres, and Jolbert Romero homered in a 4-0 win. James Hutton gave up 2 runs in 3 innings in his NL debut (after 11 AL seasons); Vladimir Avila got the win in relief for the Giants.

American League
The White Sox opened with an 8-4 road win in Minnesota, plating 4 in the top of the 11th inning. Carlos Valentin tripled in Luis Parra, Walter Phillips singled home Valentin, and Pat Itou homered for the final 2 in the decisive frame. Miguel Colome earned the win with a scoreless inning and 2/3 for the visitors.

Hi Zaun popped 2 homers and drove in 4, and Diego Wilfredo got the complete game win as Cleveland spoiled Boston's home opener, 8-4. Pedro Garrido added 3 hits (including a solo homer) for the Tribe; Jerry Murray and Tony Rivera homered for the Sox.

In Texas, Santos Lorenzo fired a complete-game, 3-hit shutout, and newcomer Carlos Cruz blasted a 3-run homer as Tampa Bay topped Texas 5-0. Vic Gonzalez and Placido Santana added solo homers for the Rays; Rangers' ace Sherry Pierre was notably absent from his traditional opening-day starter role.

Oakland pounded Anaheim starter George Bush for 8 runs (3 unearned) in the first 4 innings, and cruised to an 8-0 home win over the Angels. Javier Valdes and Ugueth Ontiveros each had 3 hits and drove in 2, and Phil Chang homered for the A's. Javier Gonzalez allowed just 5 hits over 8 and a third for the win.

Castillo Enshrined in Cooperstown

2010-10-26T11:21:00.000-07:00

Vic Castillo has now earned his permanent place in Kinsella history as the 2nd inductee into the Hall of Fame. Castillo, widely acknowledged as the greatest closer in the game during his prime, had a string of 7 seasons of near perfection that may never be matched. During his induction speech, he said, "All I tried to do was to be prepared every day to perform the job my manager asked of me to the best of my abilities." He certainly did.

Season 13 AL Preview - South

2010-10-21T20:20:00.000-07:00

AL South

Season 12 Recap: The Rays won 105 and took the division for the 4th straight year. Texas improved by 6 wins to 94 and claimed a wild card. Charlotte dropped 6 wins (to 78) and took 3rd, and Kansas City fell off by 11 wins (to 77). The Rangers pushed Oakland to 5 in the division round; Tampa Bay folded up in 5 in the ALCS versus the A's. Kansas City's Lorenzo Manto won his second MVP, and Tampa Bay's Santos Lorenzo took his second straight Cy Young.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 2nd, Team ERA - 2nd, Fielding % - T 4th
Sayonara: RP James Hutton (option declined), SS Lefty Montgomery (free agency), IF Alex Itou, C Pedro Javier (released); LF Ching-Lung Chang, CF Scott Perry (trade)
New Faces: RF Carlos Cruz, CF Tony Merced, IF John Hasegawa (trade); RP Blade Malone, RP Humberto Lopez (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: Season 9's 13th pick overall (by Houston), Mike Person, got 23 innings last year and will open in the ML 'pen.
OUTLOOK: The Rays got a lot cheaper and a lot slower in the off season. They moved their 2 best table-setters (and only base-stealers) in Chang and Perry; the lineup is now 6 power hitters and 3 defensive specialists. Carlos Cruz (who will share COF time with Rex Yearwood and Geraldo Roque) will have to improve big time over last year's numbers for the Rays to top 900 runs again. Although the Rays are known for pitching, the staff struggled last year if it wasn't Lorenzo, Vitiello or Crosby out on the hill. Without a good number of much-better innings from the likes of Lowry, Johnson, Person, et al, the Rays could have trouble winning the division again.

TEXAS RANGERS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs -7th, Team ERA - 5th, Fielding % - 2nd
Sayonara: DH Al Perez (free agency)
New Faces: RP Vinny Park, RP Ben Daniels (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: C Roger Berkman (Season 10 supplemental pick) got into 24 games last year and has made the roster.
OUTLOOK: Any conversation about the Rangers begins with the remarkable Sherry Pierre. All he did last year was win 23 for the 2nd straight year (and 20+ in 3 of the last 4) and set the new single-season record for innings pitched for the 4th straight year. As much as Pierre means, the Rangers will need a repeat performance of last season's career year (18-9, 2.94) by #2 starter Daniel Garcia (or a similar performance from one of the other starters) to contend. After a couple of down years, Gene Robinson bounced back last season and retains the closer job. Newcomers Park and Daniels solidify the setup role. Texas has a unique offense that was 2nd in both homers and steals last year. They'll platoon at C, 1B and all 3 OF positions. Rule 5 pickup Milt Howard led in homers with 27 (another 6 had over 20); 1B Brett Ross led with 47 steals, and another 7 players topped double figures.

CHARLOTTE KNIGHTS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 16th, Team ERA - 6th, Fielding % - T 4th
Sayonara: RP Turner Mordecai, SP Albie Prieto, RP Antonio Martin, RP Ben Daniels, RP Jeremy Burke, RP Ruben Sierra, C Frankie Spahn, RP Weldon Roberts, OF Johny Davis (free agency); SS Dicky Maurer, 1B Juan Chavez (released); SS Earl Barclay, SP Sven Barclay (trade)
New Faces: SP Rafael Gabriel, 3B Carlos Lee (trade); C Herman Lawson, RP Moe Reynolds, SP Davey Aquino, RP Shane Coyle (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: OF Lynn Clinton (Season 8 supplemental pick) got a cup of coffee last season and has made the roster. Season 9 #1 pick (24 overall) Rex Davis makes the jump from AA to the ML rotation. Rule 5 pickup Geraldo Pineda (Season 9 supplemental pick by Portland) has made the team.
OUTLOOK: The Knights aren't used to having sub .500 seasons (only 2 in team history) and wasted no time in cleaning house this off season. Probably more changes on the way - there are no SS's or CF's currently on the ML roster, and stars Earl Jorgenson and Warren Justice are in their last contract years. Charlotte's facing a major power outage - they were 14th in the AL in Slugging Percentage last year and 2 of their top power guys (C Frankie Spahn and SS Earl Barclay) have moved on.
They're not going to make up for it with OBP - they were 16th last year. Their pitching prospects are much better, although they'll have to make up for the loss of relievers Turner Mordecai and Ben Daniels. Warren Justice remains a top starter, Hick Hernandez is a capable #2, and rookie Rex Davis has considerable promise. The bullpen will rely on the venerable Banana Klein and free agents Shane Coyle and Moe Reynolds.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 3rd, Team ERA - 13th, Fielding % - T 6th
Sayonara: RP Gary Meyer (released)
New Faces: none
Rookie Possibilities: Power-hitting C Benji Gutierrez (Season 9 IFA) could be ready to step up to the bigs. The Hukata bothers, Phil (Season 10 IFA) and Richard (also a Season 10 IFA) could both conceivably contribute as IF's this year. Swingmen Stewart Daniels (Season 9's #1 - 11 overall) and Deivi Nunez (Season 7 IFA) could see ML action as either SP's or relievers.
OUTLOOK: With an offense built around 2-time MVP Lorenzo Manto and Hersh Taylor, the Royals have one of the best attacks in Kinsella. LF Emil Pichardo deftly compliments the Big 2 and DH Harry Reid is still going strong at 36. When they need to take a base, Manto, Reid, SS Albie Pineda, and CF Wilt Benes are all accomplished thieves. KC's pitching has been threatening to come together since the arrival of SP's Armando Taveras and Sun Wanatabe in Season 10 - it just hasn't quite happened yet. Rookie Al Saenz had his moments in the 'pen last year (despite blowing 7 of 11 save opportunities), but aside from him and the top 2 starters, the staff was pretty much a disaster in Season 12. They'll need more than a few bounce-back years from the likes of Kirwan, Barry, Crespo, etc. (and they're capable of getting them) to get into contention.

PREDICTIONS

I just don't feel good about the Rays' chemistry...no table-setters or speed of any kind, Crosby's in steep decline and the rest of the 'pen is a huge question mark. I think they'll struggle. The Rangers may have overachieved a bit last year, although I liek what they've done with a platoon-heavy lineup. The Knights just aren't going to score enough runs to contend...new mid-season addresses for Justice and Jorgenson? KC's going to score plenty, and I think their pitching will be better. This is the year 95 wins takes the division, and I'm picking the Royals in an upset.

AL Season Preview - East

2010-10-20T18:27:00.000-07:00

AL East

Season 12 Recap: The Yankees won 96 and returned to the top spot after a year's absence. Baltimore improved by a very impressive 28 wins to take 2nd and a wild card. The Red Sox slipped by 14 wins, to 74, while Cleveland matched its Season 11 win total of 71. New York swept the Orioles in Round 1, and pushed Tampa Bay to 5 games before bowing out in the Division Round. The Yanks' Julian Neal took home the Fireman of the Year Award.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 10th, Team ERA - 3rd, Fielding % - T 6th
Sayonara: C John Feng (free agency), OF Cesar Aquino (released)
New Faces: 1B Pascual Martin, C Pedro Javier (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: none apparent
OUTLOOK: The Yanks return pretty much the same aging but dangerous lineup, plus Pascual Martin. It's a power attack - 8 players had at least 20 homers last year (Willie Jose's 36 lead the team). They could use a boost in the OBP department - only 3 batters topped .350. To say they're not a running team would be a gross understatement (40 SB last year). The starting rotation is aging very well - 4 had ERA's under 3.90 and Ozzie Percival was in the Cy Young running. Julian Neal and Daniel Kennedy will need to repeat their sterling relief performances, but there's no reason to believe they won't. It's an old team, but not falling apart yet.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 4th, Team ERA - 7th, Fielding % - 1st
Sayonara: SP Donn Sisler, DH Chris Mullens, IF Richard Brea, SP Frank Reagan (free agency); CF Torey Guillen (released)
New Faces: RP Jorge Sierra, RP Gary King, C Frankie Spahn
Rookie Possibilities: 2B/CF Pedro Morales got 69 AB's last year and has made the team in a utility role. It's a season early for SP Ryuu Choi (Season 10 #4 overall), but he'll probably get the call pretty soon.
OUTLOOK: The Birds' attack features one of Kinsella's top young sluggers, Damian Brantley. The team has ended his catching experiment and will apparently try him at 1B this year. Brantley is ably complimented by DH Eric Ducey (.298/24/79), LF Howard Hall (.390 OBP), and RF Rico Segui (.260/25/92). Mark Blank is the official testimonial to the uselessness of the contact rating, although he did enjoy a career high with 27 homers last season. One of these years, Jamie Faulk will have that breakout season - Baltimore is hoping it's this one. Baltimore's pitching hopes, of course, hinge on new ace Kordell Becker, who was inconsistent in Tampa Bay and fizzled in 9 starts (including 1 post-season effort of 5 earned runs in 6 innings) for the Birds in Season 12. The ideal scenario here is 200 innings from Becker (which would be a career first), 210 innings and another career year from Ossie Flynn, and 200+ innings from rookie Ryuu Choi. The bullpen is nothing special, although Jorge Sierra could help.

BOSTON RED SOX
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 8th, Team ERA - 8th, Fielding % - T 9th
Sayonara: SS Ed Atkins, LR Erik Monroe (free agency); 3B Nerio Arnold, P Cristian Rhodes (released)
New Faces: SP Cooper Tomlinson, SS Lefty Montgomery, SP Patrick Rivera (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: Season 10's first-rounder (18 overall), Russ Byrne, could possibly help but will probably spend the year in AAA
OUTLOOK: On offense the Sox bring a good mix of speed and power. 2B Mitchell Moehler and LF Juan Miro lead things off - they combined for 75 steals last year. DH Matt Person, 1B Manny Sasaki and RF Jerry Murray are the primary run-producers. Donatello Bollea heads a rotation that the Sox hope is shored up by 41 year-old Patrick Rivera - #'s 4 and 5 starters Vasco Castillo and Vin Phelps both had ERA's over 5.00 last year. Boston let its most effective reliever from last year (Erik Monroe - 3.32 ERA in 103 innings and still a free agent) go, so the 'pen is a question mark. Wascar Santana closed last season but posted a 5.01 ERA...Alex Barrios seems like a candidate, but who knows? Rivera may end up closing.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 9th, Team ERA - 10th, Fielding % - 14th
Sayonara: RP Craig Grace, 1B Vin Benitez, RP F.P.James, RP Otto Molitor, OF Del Wilhelm, SP Albert Ordonez (free agency); OF Joe Christman, RP Torii Mack(released), RP Mac Meng (trade)
New Faces: SP Rusty Little, SP Cristian Rhodes, OF Alex Itou (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: Season 9's first rounder (#5 overall), RP Randy Coleman, is primed and ready to debut. We'll see him in the majors by Game 20.
OUTLOOK: The Tribe scored a credible 792 runs last year. There's no dominant slugger...nobody knocked in over 100 runs but 12 players had 45 or more. LF Douglas Martin and 1B Pedro Garrido are the main power threats, although at 35, Garrido is showing some signs of decline. 2B/OF Pablo Mendoza might be the team's best all-round hitter...he's also one of the few mild SB threats on the team. Diego Wilfredo is one of the top starters in the AL - he could win a Cy Young or 2 before he's done. Cristian Rhodes will be an upgrade at #2, but the rest of the rotation will be a crapshoot. Among the relievers, Andres Mota had a good rookie campaign - he got 5 starts last year and could get more this season. The rest of the 'pen could use a facelift.

PREDICTIONS

I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Baltimore, if for no other reason than I fear Kordell Becker and Jamie Faulk will spite me with career years. The Yanks still have plenty enough gas for a strong second place, with Boston third and Cleveland fourth.

AL Season 13 Preview - North

2010-10-18T20:02:00.000-07:00

AL North

Season 12 Recap: The White Sox started slow but rallied to win 93 and take their 3rd straight crown. Toronto and Minnesota kept with recent trends, but the Tigers dropped 21 wins from Season 11 to bring up the rear. The Sox made the playoffs as the 4th seed but lost in the first round to Texas.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 6th, Team ERA - 4th, Fielding % - T 6th
Sayonara: RP Austin Coleman (FA), RP Curtis Rogers (trade), SP Enrique Crespo (trade)
New Faces: none by trade or FA
Rookie Possibilities: Season 9 IFA Virgil Trinidad is poised to step into the rotation, and Season 9 overall #1 Artie Myers will almost certainly debut soon. AAA RP's Albert Saenz and Flash Tessmer are ready to contribute but may not be able to crack into the ML bullpen.
OUTLOOK: Excellent young team that's only getting better. On offense, they use a lot of platoons and substitutions - rookie 2B Brace Watkins was their only truly full time player last year (and he led the team with 41 HR's and 113 RBI). Watkins is the main power threat and is complimented by 1B Julian Torres (28 HR), SS Walter Phillips (24 HR), OF Luis Parra (23 HR) and 3B Esteban Carrasco (22 HR). C Pat Itou and Torres appear to be the best options for the top of the order; Phillips (35 SB) and Parra (25 SB) are the primary speed threats. Alan Long (3 straight 16-win seasons) heads a very effective 5-man rotation. The already-excellent bullpen seems set to open the season with Artie Myers in a prominent role. Myers may have the best stuff of any pitcher in Kinsella not named "Hernandez"; it's not clear what his role will be but you can bet the Pale Hose will try to get him 150 innings

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 12th, Team ERA - 11th, Fielding % - 13th
Sayonara: RF Carlos Cruz and CF Tony Merced (trade), 3B Jerry Kaline (season 12 trade), RP Buster Dingman (released)
New Faces: LF Ching-Lung Chang and CF Scott Perry (trade)
Rookie Possibilities: Season 10's overall #1 pick, Wally Barton, is set to open the season at 3B.
OUTLOOK: The Jays gave up power prospect Sean Pearson (along with Cruz and Merced) to get Ching-Lung Chang and Scott Perry, a move that should boost their offense considerably. Perry is a competent hitter for a CF, and Chang should be a vast improvement over the powerful but inconsistent Cruz. Speed will clearly be a bigger part of the Toronto attack this year - Chang has 4 straight 40+ steal seasons and rookie 3B Wally Barton seems capable of similar totals. While they're running, the Jays will rely on old pro J.J. Perez (34 HR), 2nd-year 1B Pascual Guillen (.271/27/87 rookie campaign) and OF Max Padilla (.307/20/70) for run production. They return the rotation intact and that's a problem - only Derrin Politte posted an ERA under 5.00 last season (although all have in the past...maybe last year was just bad luck). Half the bullpen (Diaz, Juarez and Pratt) is solid; if they can keep the other half seated (a possibility if the rotation improves), they'll be better.

MINNESOTA TWINS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 15th, Team ERA - 9th, Fielding % - 11th
Sayonara: 1B Stump Cambridge, SP Sammy Lyon, IF Brian Ferguson, RP Ronald Barr, SS Ramon Martin (free agency); P Frank Inoue, P Max Diaz, OF Davey Weston, IF Sean Hill (released);
New Faces: SP Donn Sisler, DH Daryl Whitaker, RP Turner Mordecai, DH Al Perez, LF Roberto Molina, RP Craig Grace (free agency)
Rookie Possibilities: Season 9 supplemental pick Pablo Cortez may win the 3B job. Season 9 1st-rounder John Pryce could get a shot at the rotation early on. Season 10 IFA Juan Sivilla seems ready to step up to the ML bullpen.
OUTLOOK: The Twinkies have probably done more housecleaning than any team - at minimum they've gotten a lot younger, but they should also be better. One of their biggest flaws last year was the woeful lack of power - 153 dingers was good for last in the AL. Whitaker, Perez and Molina may not be the ultimate solutions, but they will definitely add some pop to lineup (and they're CHEAP). 2B Junior Chen, CF Leon Rogers, and OF Brady Sierra are the best table-setters. OF Yamil Saenz is the primary speed/SB threat, although with the addition of Molina his playing time is at risk. Jesse Cook has a pair of 15-win seasons in his first 3 years and is a sold #1 SP. Pryce may well step in as the #2. Howard Sweeney has the stuff to be a top-quality closer - look for a big step forward this year. Although Eric Houston pitched well in 40 innings last year, Minnesota needs a better setup man to keep the late innings close. FA's Sisler, Mordecai, Grace and rookie Sivilla will vie for that role.

DETROIT TIGERS
Season 12 Rankings: Runs - 13th, Team ERA - 14th, Fielding % - T 7th
Sayonara: P Perry Harvey, 1B Pascual Martin, DH Charles Pan, C Bryan Reed, IF Albert Borbon (free agency)
New Faces: none via free agency or trade
Rookie Possibilities: Season 9's #1 Chad Hawkins had a promising cup of coffee last season and starts Season 13 in the rotation.
OUTLOOK: Let's start with pitching, where the Tigers imploded last year (Team ERA went from 4.23 to 5.19). Carson Graves had his every-other-year off year, so look for a return at least to Season 11 form, and possibly Cy Young candidacy. Relievers Christian Simmons and Hideki Yang both had inexplicably poor seasons...their worst as ML'ers by far...strong rebounds highly likely. Clemens, Greer, Hill and Wright also had terrible seasons. In a pitcher's park like Comerica, odds are at least a couple of these guys are better this season. So let's write off last year's pitching as an aberration. The offense, on the other hand, is a legit mess. Glendon Allen is way over the hill, it's not clear who will play 1B, and there are currently no SS's on either the ML or AAA rosters. Both 32, Bing Miles and Damian Chen remain dangerous hitters. Rick Griffin (32) and Eric Brumfield (34) are at least adequate major-leaguers. After that...?

PREDICTIONS

White Sox win the division comfortably. The Twins, Jays and Tigers will all improve...somehow I think Minnesota will emerge from that pack and take second. Detroit is the real joker here...their pitching is potentially good enough for them to contend, but I can't see them scoring enough to challenge Chicago or get into the wild card race.

Xnay Sounds Off

2010-09-11T08:50:00.000-07:00

Oakland GM xnay recently pulled off perhaps the trade of the year, luring 7-time All-Star Douglas Carpenter from Cincinatti for a trio of major-leaguers. Here's what he had to say about the deal:

"Well, I felt that I needed to add one more big bat to the middle of our lineup and Carpenter definitely gives us that. We gave up some solid pieces and losing Ming definitely hurts but we do have some solid young pitchers who should be ready to contribute down the stretch. Even with the trade, I still think the Rays are the team to beat in the AL (yeah, right) but at least this gives us a fighting chance."

Thus far, Carpenter has been getting days off to house-hunt and recharge for the stretch run.

Crabman On the Becker trade

2010-09-11T07:11:00.000-07:00

"This trade finally gives this franchise the ace pitcher it severely lacked. We obviously are making a push to get into the playoffs and if we do make it, having Kordell as our #1 should help us out tremendously. Its tough to lose Felix Turner, but we feel Jamie Faulk will help lessen the blow to the offense, while being an upgrade defensively."

So far, the deal is not reaping dividends for the Birds: Becker is 0-2, 6.19 and Faulk is hitting just .200 in 65 AB's. It's a mixed review on the Rays' end: Hutton has been knocked around to the tune of a 7.53 ERA, but Turner has contributed 18 RBI in 16 games.

Inside the Big Baltimore/Tampa Bay Trade

2010-09-04T08:31:00.000-07:00

The Orioles and Rays have pulled off the season's biggest trade, swapping a pair of highly-paid pitchers and a pair of highly-drafted 3B's.

Baltimore gets Kordell Becker, the second piece of Tampa Bay's monster Season 10 FA spending spree; Jamie Faulk, Season 5's number 1 overall pick, and SP Donn Sisler. The Rays get Felix Turner, Season 7's #4 overall, James Hutton, Baltimore's own contribution to the Season 10 "FA credit bubble," and OF Andrew Holdridge.

Driving the deal: the Rays' impending budget bomb. "With many of our players reaching arbitration and their first long-term contracts, we were going to have to trade 2 or 3 big-salary guys next season," said Tampa Bay GM blanch13. "We saw an opportunity that made sense to speed up that timetable."

From Baltimore's end, the allure of getting a staff ace outweighed the huge contract that comes with him and the loss of Turner. The Orioles have turned into a bit of a surprise contender this year, thanks largely to the contributions of some fairly low-budget FA pitchers. But that pitching has slipped lately, and the Birds seized the opportunity to grab an ace starter.

Reactions around the league were mixed. Yankees' boss overeasy bemoaned the strengthening of a division rival: "I liked the Orioles better when they didn't have any good starting pitchers." White Sox GM jnewfry commented on the long-term implications: "And i liked the Rays better when they were completely stuck salary wise." And Texas GM akgsports provided a clear analysis of the talent merits: "I like Baltimore's end of it :) Faulk is underrated and just having a down year offensively. Becker is still top notch. I don't think Turner will be a consistent 900+ OPS hitter with a BE of 53."

Julio hit #500!

2010-08-06T09:40:00.000-07:00

Home Run King

Orber Julio

It was the top of the 7th with one man on base and the Phillies were trailing the Astros by 1 run when Julio blasted a pitch from Chris Puckett into the left field bleachers of Minute Maid Park. With that home run, the Phils took a one-run lead and Orber Julio became the first player to hit 500 career home runs. While the Astros came back to win the game, the feat will be forever remembered as the ball was sent directly to the Hall of Fame.

Divison Round Matchups

2010-06-28T13:10:00.000-07:00

We're down to 8, with the #5 seeds upsetting the #4's in both leagues. Here's the breakdown:

National League

#5 Cubs vs. #1 Expos: Both clubs tended to win with offense this year - Cubs were #3 in runs and Montreal was #5 - and both were middle-of-the pack pitching-wise. The Frenchies did lead the league in fielding percentage, with the Cubs at #14 (57 more unearned runs than the Expos), so watch how the errors play out. They split their season series.

#3 Padres vs. #2 Braves: Classic offense/defense matchup: the Braves led the league in runs scored, while the Pads, with their "waves of relievers" strategy, allowed the fewest. But while Atlanta's pitching is also pretty impressive (3.98 ERA), San Diego had to scrap for every run (14th in scoring). Atlanta took the season series 6-4.

American League

#3 Boston vs. #2 Tampa Bay: The Rays took the season series 7-3 this year. The teams are just about dead-even on offense - Tampa Bay has a slight edge in pitching and posted the league's top fielding percentage. Player to watch: Donatello Bollea has been a deadly Ray-killer in previous years (0-1 in 2 starts this year); if he can revert to his Season 9 and 10 form (against the Rays, at least) for 2 starts (likely against Santos Lorenzo), it could be an early out for the defending AL champs.

#5 Rangers vs. #1 Athletics: Oakland was a statistical powerhouse this year, finishing 2nd in runs scores, first in Team ERA, and 3rd in fielding percentage. Texas was right behind the A's in scoring but will need to step up the pitching and play flawless defense to have a shot in this series. Oakland won the season series 7-3.

Poll Results - Who will hit more home runs?

2010-06-25T12:12:00.001-07:00

#1 Vote Getter

Travis Murphy

Thanks to a young start to his career and more time to benefit from the steroid era, Travis Murphy was the top vote getter with 6 votes. Just behind with 5 votes, single-season record holder Dee Dee Hutton was another popular choice. While he has been very impressive in his short career, Vic Gonzales garnered only 3 votes.

All-Decade Team: Middle Reliever

2010-06-25T10:03:00.000-07:00

Middle Reliever

Victor Lima

While he spent part of the decade as a starter, part of it as a closer, and part of as a middle reliever, he spent the entire decade thoroughly dominating hitters. His superb performance at wherever his manager wanted him was what earned his place on the All-Decade Team ahead of some very good middle relievers who spent the entire decade in that role. The final voting tally was as follows (20 votes):
Victor Lima (9) - 62 pts
Alfonso Trajano (4) - 55 pts
Turner Mordecai (2) - 24 pts
Wes Roosevelt (3) - 23 pts
Julio Romero (2) - 16 pts

Around the AL With 9 To Go

2010-06-22T19:03:00.000-07:00

North
The Tigers have put together a nice 14-2 run since 6/17 PM2 to get to within 3 of the White Sox (8-7 over the same period). These teams hook up for a 3-game set to end the season. It's probably win the division or nothing for Detroit - despite their streak they're 5 games out of the second wild card.

East
Yanks have stumbled badly since the Pickford injury, suffering 7 and 5-game losing streaks recently. The Red Sox have capitalized, opening up a 4-game lead, with the two teams meeting in the final series.

South
Tampa Bay has clinched and will get one of the top 2 seeds. Kansas City, Texas and Charlotte are all solidly in the wild card picture...could be the second straight year with 3 playoff teams.

West
Oakland clinched awhile back and is a game up on the Rays for the #1 seed. Anaheim is still in the wild card hunt be needs to right the ship...the current L7 isn't helping.

Wild Card
Lots of juicy possibilities. The Royals have a leg up with a 3-game lead, but still have series with Tampa Bay and Texas. The Rangers, Knights and Yankees are all at 82-71...Charlotte and Texas have a series left. Anaheim is just a game back of those 3 and might have a slight schedule edge. The Tigers aren't toast yet but they better win most of their remaining games to stay in it.

Around the NL with 13 Games To Go

2010-06-21T10:56:00.000-07:00

North
With a 9-game lead, Montreal has it all but wrapped up, but the Cubbies have a firm grip on the first wild card spot.
Key series: Cubs @ Cardinals, 4 games starting tomorrow night. A Cards series win could tighten up the wild card picture even more.

East
D.C. leads the Mets by 3 and the Phillies by 5.
Schedules: All three teams have all their remaining games with .500+ teams...this might come down to the last series of the season, when the Nationals visit the Mets for 3.

South
Atlanta has a comfy 7-game lead over St. Louis. The Cards are a game out of the 2nd wild card at the moment, and Houston is only within miracle range.
Key stretch: The Cardinals have against Philly, Chicago and Atlanta...if they can hang in through that stretch they get a relative break in Florida for the last series.

West
The Pads are 3 up on the Dodgers and 5 up on the Diamondbacks in another 3-contender division. L.A. is sitting in the #2 wild card at the moment but there are 4 teams within 3 games.
Key series: the current 4-gamer against Montreal. L.A. dropped the opener and needs to come back strong to hold onto the #6 seed.

Wild Card
Cubbies have the upper hand for now, but this looks like it'll change day-to-day until the last game.
Schedules
Cubs: best schedule of the bunch, wtih 3 more against Florida and a season-ending series with Cincy.
Dodgers: 2 with teams over .500, 2 with teams under
Cards: 3 teams over .500, 1 under
Mets: 3 teams over .500, 1 under
Diamondbacks: 2 teams over .500, 2 teams under
Phillies: 3 teams over .500, 1 under

All-Decade Team: Starting Pitcher #3

2010-05-14T14:03:00.000-07:00

Starting Pitcher #3

Branch Vitiello

Thanks to his final three seasons of the decade in which he was clearly the most dominant pitcher in the AL (and possibly the entire world factoring in home parks and league ERA differences), Branch Vitiello earned the third and final starting pitching spot on the All-Decade team. Just missing the cut was Darren Chance who had his dominant seasons in the first half of the decade. The complete starting pitching voting tally was as follows (20 votes):
Walt Hernandez (17) - 112 pts
Patrick Rivera (2) - 89 pts
Branch Vitiello - 64 pts
Darren Chance - 60 pts
Ozzie Percival - 30 pts
Andres Cedeno - 24 pts
Perry Harvey - 12 pts
Kordell Becker - 9 pts
Jeff Bollea (1) - 7 pts
J.P. Taveras, Felipe Tejada - 4 pts
Haywood Charles - 3 pts
Pedro Mercado, Scott Pickford - 1 pt
Buck Barry - 0 pts

All-Decade Team: Third Base

2010-05-14T13:50:00.000-07:00

Third Base

Francisco Guillen

By the narrowest of margins, Francisco Guillen was named as the third baseman for the All-Decade team. By being the only 3B named on every ballot, Guillen barely edged out his statistical doppleganger, Adam Martin, and the superior fielding Doug Stewart. Voting tally was as follows (21 votes):
Francisco Guillen (8) - 67 pts
Adam Martin (7) - 63 pts
Doug Stewart (6) - 54 pts
Glendon Allen - 4 pts
Derrick Russ - 1 pt

All-Decade Team: Starting Pitcher #2

2010-05-13T14:10:00.000-07:00

Starting Pitcher #2

Patrick Rivera

As Kinsella's most consistent pitcher who pitched every season of the first decade, Patrick Rivera earned the second spot at starting pitcher for the All-Decade team. With 2 Cy Youngs and 8 seasons of 15 wins or more, Rivera was able to claim the 2 of the 3 #1 votes not claimed by Walt Hernandez. Starting pitching voting scores will be posted with the #3 spot.

Dee Dee Hutton vs. Travis Murphy vs. Vic Gonzalez...most career HR's?

2010-05-13T11:40:00.000-07:00

Who do you think will end his Kinsella career with the most HR's: Dee Dee Hutton, Travis Murphy, or Vic Gonzalez? Hutton benefited from playing a few seasons in the steroid era, while Gonzalez broke in earlier...if he hits 50 this year he'll have hit 124 before age 23 (Hutton's first ML season). Murphy broke in at 21 and had a few steroid era years...he actually has a few more HR's (15) than Hutton and is a year younger. What do you think?

All-Decade Team: Starting Pitcher #1

2010-05-03T10:49:00.000-07:00

Starting Pitcher #1

Walt Hernandez

As the most dominating starting pitcher to take the mound in Kinsella history, Walt Hernandez was the overwhelming choice as the #1 Starting Pitcher for the All-Decade team by capturing 17 first place votes out of 20 voters. At only 31 years of age, he looks like a prime candidate to appear on the next All-Decade team as well. Voting scores will be released with the announcement of Starting Pitcher #3.

All-Decade Team: Closer

2010-04-30T15:19:00.000-07:00

Closer

Vic Castillo

There was nothing more certain in the first decade of Kinsella than the safety of a lead in the 9th inning when Vic Castillo stepped on the mound. His performance was so dominant that he was the overwhelming choice for the All-Decade team over distant runners up James Hutton, Matthew Crosby, and Carlos Solano. Voting scores were as follows (20 votes):
Vic Castillo (17) - 91 pts
James Hutton (1) - 32 pts
Matthew Crosby (2) and Carlos Solano - 28 pts
Raul Astacio - 1 pt

All-Decade Team: Designated Hitter

2010-04-30T15:10:00.000-07:00

Designated Hitter

Brandon Sutton

Being the best hitter for the World's winningest regular season franchise led to the overwhelming selection of Brandon Sutton to the All-Decade team, well ahead of the big hitting DH for the AL's most successful playoff team, Darryl Whitaker. Voting tally was as follows (21 votes):
Brandon Sutton (19) - 101 pts
Darryl Whitaker - 46 pts
Rick Melhuse and Al Perez (1) - 16 pts
Todd Winchester (1) - 10 pts

All-Decade Team: Right Field

2010-04-30T15:02:00.000-07:00

Right Field

B.C. Javier

After playing the entire decade and being the top right fielder in almost every offensive statistic while also earning two Gold Gloves, B.C. Javier was the clear choice for the All-Decade team as he dominated the voting over the clear choice for #2, Guy Cunningham. Voting scores were as follows (21 votes):
B.C. Javier (20) - 103 pts
Guy Cunningham (1) - 63 pts
James Sherman - 10 pts
Willie Jose - 9 pts
Eric Roosevelt - 4 pts

AL South Season 11 Preview

2010-04-27T14:36:00.000-07:00

The South was the AL's top division last year, with Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Charlotte all making the playoffs. Although the Royals lost to the Yankees in the first round, the Knights scored upsets over Oakland and Chicago before losing to the Rays in the ALCS.

Can the young Royals or the resurgent Knights overtake the Rays this season? Can the Rangers retool to get into the race? Can the Rays make the long trek back to the WS and shed the "Bills" label? Here's how we break it down:

TAMPA BAY RAYS: Season 10 Record - 107-55; Hitting - 889 runs (2nd); Pitching - 3.50 ERA (1st); Fielding - .990 % (1st)
Given their commitment of nearly $200MM to FA's Branch Vitiello and Kordell Becker, the Rays' Season 10 - 107 wins but a timid 4-1 WS loss to St. Louis - has to be called a disappointment. Despite fairly steady trade talks all off season, they're bringing back the identical roster this year. Pitching and defense are the heart of the team - the 3-headed monster of Vitiello, Becker and Santos Lorenzo leads the rotation, with slick fielders Mariano Mateo (SS), Jamie Faulk (2B) and Scott Perry (CF) anchoring the defense. The key to their offense is getting good contribution from every spot in the lineup, although DH Vic Gonzalez seems poised to enter the ranks of the league's elite sluggers.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS: Season 10 Record - 91-71; Hitting - 909 runs (1st); Pitching - 4.53 ERA (9th); Fielding - .983 % (tie 8th)
The Royals boast having the best all-round player in the AL (and maybe all Kinsella) in 2B Lorenzo Manto. His .360/26/125/52 SB/131 Runs MVP Season sparked their playoff run and #1-ranked offense. With Manto in front of him, Hersh Taylor could eventually challenge for the all-time RBI leadership (159 last year). The Manto/Taylor production is a given - watch for 2nd-year 3B Malik Stokes to emerge as another key producer. The key to the Royals' fortunes, though, lies with improved pitching. Armando Taveras (17-7, 3.66) thrived in his first year, but Sun Wanatabe (12-10, 4.51) had some rookie struggles - he'll have to improve and likely will. KC went out and got some FA help in #5 starter Haywood Charles and setup man Joshua Edwards (both on economy 1-year contracts).

CHARLOTTE KNIGHTS: Season 10 Record - 84-78; Hitting - 792 runs (8th); Pitching - 4.34 ERA (6th); Fielding - .982 % (tie 10th)
The Knights' offense revolves around 2-time MVP Earl Jorgenson and Kinsella all-time RBI leader Jose Mondesi. B.C. Javier's production fell off badly last year and a comeback at age 36 is iffy. Charlotte will likely need a better solution at 1B/DH - and some big seasons from other position players - to contend again. The Knights tend to use a rotation-by-committee aproach - 7 pitchers got more than 10 starts last year. Of those Warren Justice (13-9, 3.42), Banana Klein (9-7, 3.97) and Sven Barclay (9-13, 4.87) seem most capable of breakout seasons. The late innings are in good hands with closer Ruben Sierra (no, not the village idiot - this one was a perfect 23-for-23 in save ops last year with a stunning 5.16 OPS against) and workhorse setup man Turner Mordecai (9 wins, 7 saves, 3.18 ERA in 153 innings).

TEXAS RANGERS: Season 10 Record - 69-93; Hitting - 883 runs (3rd); Pitching - 5.16 ERA (16th); Fielding - .987 % (tie 2nd)
The Ranger staff got off to a terrible start last year and never recovered, prompting the big Marraro/Fonville trade that netted prospects Sherman Cunningham, Harry Uribe and Justin Hitchcock plus pitcher Hades Ritchie. All are currently in AAA but could see big-league duty this season. Other new faces include FA's Carlos Solano (RP), Julio Romero (LR) and Vin Klaus (RF), plus rookie 2B Ivan Prince. Offensively, the main run production duties will fall to 1B Wolf Douglas and DH Chris Grimsley. Sherry Pierre anchors a pitching staff that, while it has some holes, could see a big improvement - Buck Barry and Branch Crosby especially.

OUTLOOK
The Rays don't look any less dominant than last year - they have to be the preseason favorite. The Royals could well get the pitching improvement needed to close last year's 16-game gap...maybe even enough to make it a race. The Knights are a wild card - a couple of career seasons and good breaks and they could be in the tournament again, or a few bad bounces and they could be considering selling veterans. It's not impossible to see Texas contending, but in all likelihood they'll shoot for gathering up some more young talent. Don't hold your breath waiting for a Sherry Pierre trade but don't be surprised if Texas moves him for an impressive bundle of prospects either. I'm predicting the Rays win it again, with the Royals finishing just 5 back. Charlotte will battle Detroit for the last wild card (it's a Carson Graves "on" year, remember), and I think they'll take it, giving the South 3 playoff teams for the second straight year.

THE ALL AL-SOUTH TEAM:
C - Bob Riggs the offensive C
C - Casey Larkin the defensive C
1B - Hersh Taylor 159 RBI...'nuff said
2B - Lorenzo Manto MVP...'nuff said
3B - Ismael Lopez OK, 3B is a weak position in the division
SS - Wascar Uribe best combo of offense/defense
LF - Ching-Lung Chang Lorenzo Manto starter-kit
CF - Scott Perry another weak position...Perry gets it for D
RF - Jose Mondesi nice comeback after 2 down years
DH - Vic Gonzalez even better things to come
UT - Earl Jorgenson all the way back from Sea 8 injury
UT - Jason Walls pretty nice 4th OF
UT - Mariano Mateo barely missed second straight GG
UT - Chris Grimsley gets PH duty

SP - Branch Vitiello 2nd-half surge won the CY for him
SP - Sherry Pierre the ultimate quality innings eater
SP - Kordell Becker fairly quiet but effective season
SP - Santos Lorenzo we're not including WS performances here
SP - Warren Justice strong 1st half puts him just ahead of the rookies
LR - Armando Taveras had a case for ROY
LR - Fred Lewis rare 20 wins for a rookie
SU - Turner Mordecai 9 wins, 7 saves, 3.18 ERA in 153 IP
SU - Karim Wallace 6 wins, 8 saves, 2.57 ERA in 94 IP
SU - Joshua Edwards 13 wins, 3.84 ERA in 75 IP
CL - Ruben Sierra 23-for-23 in saves ops, .516 OPS against

All-Decade Team: Center Field

2010-04-27T11:53:00.003-07:00

Center Field

Damian Chen

Gold Glove caliber defensive ability combined with superior offensive skills made the difference in the election of Damian Chen to the all-decade team over the more offense, weaker defense of Frank Jorgensen. Voting scores are as follows (19 votes):
Damian Chen (12) - 75 pts
Frank Jorgensen (6) - 53 pts
Cliff Rivers (1) - 35 pts
Shea Keefe - 5
Robert Jefferson - 3

All-Decade Team: Left Field

2010-04-27T11:52:00.000-07:00

Left Field

Del Wilhelm

After having been one of the major offensive forces for the 2-time World Champion Phillies, Del Wilhelm was the clear choice for left field, well ahead of the all-time home run king, Orber Julio, and big hitter, Arthur Boggs. The voting scores were as follows (19 votes cast):
Del Wilhelm (14) - 79 pts
Orber Julio (3) - 42 pts
Arthur Boggs (1) - 37 pts
Julio Martin - 7 pts
Harry Reid (1) - 6 pts

All-Decade Team: Shortstop

2010-04-27T11:32:00.000-07:00

Shortstop

Jake Clapp

Despite only playing the position for three seasons in the decade, Kinsella's first HOF inductee, Jake Clapp, was the overwhelming choice to be the shortstop for the All-Decade team. His three monster seasons at the plate, while also doing a fine job at the most important defensive position, were enough to distance himself from the other candidates. The final vote scoring was as follows (19 total votes):

Jake Clapp (17) - 91 pts

Danny Alexander (1) - 55 pts

Willie Edmonds (1) - 14 pts

Richard Ishii - 7 pts

Sidney Cannon - 4 pts

All-Decade Team: Second Base

2010-04-26T15:51:00.000-07:00

Second Base

Earl Jorgensen

In a land slide vote, 2-time MVP Earl Jorgensen won the vote as the second base representative ahead of the distant second-place finishers, Miguel Pena and Alexander Myers. Voting scores went as follows (18 votes cast):
Earl Jorgensen (15) - 78 pts
Miguel Pena (3) and Alexander Myers - 33 pts
Clyde Redmond - 14 pts
Hector Joseph - 4 pts

All-Decade Team: First Base

2010-04-26T15:43:00.000-07:00

First Base

Dee Dee Hutton

With the most devastating bat yet to be seen in the world, Dee Dee Hutton earned his spot on the All-Decade team by a good margin over the also very impressive Kevin Marte. The final voting scores are as follows (18 votes cast):
Dee Dee Hutton(11) - 76 pts
Kevin Marte (6) - 54 pts
Pascual Martin (1) and Travis Murphy - 12 pts
Pedro Garrido - 8 pts

All-Decade Team: Catcher

2010-04-26T10:54:00.000-07:00

Catcher

J.J. Perez

With his great all-around skills as an excellent defensive catcher and one of the most fearsome sluggers at any position, J.J. Perez was elected as the top catcher for World Kinsella's first decade of play. The final voting scores were as follows (18 votes cast):
J.J. Perez (13 1st Place Votes) - 78 pts
Bernard Springer (5) - 55 pts
Enrique Gonzales - 15 pts
Jolbert Saenz - 8 pts
Tripp Devereaux - 6 pts

All-Decade Team Nominees

2010-04-14T11:24:00.000-07:00

Here are the nominees for World Kinsella's First All-Decade Team. Official ballots will be coming by site mail prior to the start of spring training and ballots will be due at the end of spring training.

Catchers
Tripp Devereaux (Cleveland, Cincinnati) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 147 G, 519 AB, 88 R, 136 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 38 HR, 99 RBI, 80 BB, 99 SO, 0 SB, .262 AVG, .365 OBP, .516 SLG, .881 OPS
Awards: 1 Silver Slugger

Enrique Gonzales (Milwaukee, Florida, Baltimore, Washington DC) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 139 G, 510 AB, 80 R, 167 H, 30 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 52 BB, 70 SO, 0 SB, .328 AVG, .396 OBP, .507 SLG, .903 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

J.J. Perez (Toronto) 7 seasons
Avg. Season: 156 G, 629 AB, 97 R, 181 H, 28 2B, 1 3B, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 47 BB, 93 SO, 3 SB, .288 AVG, .340 OBP, .534 SLG, .874 OPS
Awards: 6 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers, 1 Gold Glove, Rookie of the Year, 1 MVP

Jolbert Saenz (Minnesota, Chicago Cubs) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 144 G, 530 AB, 74 R, 161 H, 25 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 59 BB, 56 SO, 0 SB, .304 AVG, .375 OBP, .459 SLG, .834 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger

Bernard Springer (Montreal, San Diego, New York Yankees) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 131 G, 431 AB, 76 R, 132 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 37 HR, 95 RBI, 56 BB, 65 SO, 0 SB, .305 AVG, .386 OBP, .600 SLG, .986 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

First Basemen
Pedro Garrido (Philadelphia, Cleveland) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 153 G, 602 AB, 106 R, 194 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 42 HR, 132 RBI, 71 BB, 60 SO, 0 SB, .323 AVG, .396 OBP, .583 SLG, .979 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Home Run Derby Champ, 2 Silver Sluggers, Rookie of the Year, 1 MVP

Dee Dee Hutton (Atlanta) 7 seasons
Avg. Season: 158 G, 593 AB, 117 R, 186 H, 25 2B, 4 3B, 55 HR, 139 RBI, 109 BB, 62 SO, 0 SB, .313 AVG, .421 OBP, .646 SLG, 1.067 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 1 Home Run Derby Champ, 3 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Glove, Rookie of the Year, 3 MVPs

Kevin Marte (Montreal) 8.1 seasons
Avg. Season: 161 G, 623 AB, 121 R, 215 H, 40 2B, 3 3B, 42 HR, 124 RBI, 108 BB, 53 SO, 0 SB, .345 AVG, .443 OBP, .619 SLG, 1.062 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 1 Home Run Derby Champ, 3 Silver Sluggers, Rookie of the Year, 2 MVPs

Pascual Martin (Arizona, Detroit) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 151 G, 516 AB, 94 R, 176 H, 40 2B, 9 3B, 24 HR, 96 RBI, 60 BB, 65 SO, 15 SB, .340 AVG, .411 OBP, .590 SLG, 1.001 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 1 All-Star MVP, 2 Silver Sluggers, 1 Gold Glove, 1 MVP

Travis Murphy (Anaheim) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 143 G, 534 AB, 96 R, 162 H, 20 2B, 1 3B, 49 HR, 126 RBI, 57 BB, 61 SO, 0 SB, .303 AVG, .374 OBP, .619 SLG, .993 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Home Run Derby Champ, 2 Silver Sluggers, Rookie of the Year, 2 MVPs

Second Basemen
Earl Jorgensen (Charlotte) 9 seasons (Major Injury S8)
Avg. Season: 160 G, 662 AB, 132 R, 202 H, 47 2B, 6 3B, 28 HR, 104 RBI, 71 BB, 80 SO, 37 SB, .306 AVG, .377 OPS, .524 SLG, .901 OPS
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers, 2 MVPs

Hector Joseph (Kansas City, Florida, Atlanta, Toronto) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 149 G, 590 AB, 100 R, 178 H, 35 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 54 BB, 92 SO, 34 SB, .302 AVG, .365 OPS, .473 SLG, .838 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars

Alexander Myers (Toronto, New York Yankees, Philadelphia) 8.6 seasons (Major Injury S8)
Avg. Season: 158 G, 651 AB, 120 R, 205 H, 32 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 84 BB, 77 SO, 18 SB, .315 AVG, .395 OBP, .474 SLG, .869 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers

Miguel Pena (Minnesota, Montreal) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 156 G, 609 AB, 107 R, 170 H, 35 2B, 8 3B, 33 HR, 105 RBI, 60 BB, 133 SO, 19 SB, .280 AVG, .346 OBP, .528 SLG, .874 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 2 Gold Gloves (1 2B, 1 CF)

Clyde Redmond (Pittsburgh) 8.4 seasons
Avg. Season: 154 G, 585 AB, 104 R, 172 H, 34 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 94 RBI, 72 BB, 76 SO, 20 SB, .294 AVG, .386 OBP, .512 SLG, .898 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers

Third Baseman
Glendon Allen (Washington, Boston, Atlanta) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 156 G, 620 AB, 98 R, 183 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 85 RBI, 52 BB, 87 SO, 15 SB, .296 AVG, .353 OBP, .437 SLG, .790 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star

Francisco Guillen (New York Yankees) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 147 G, 563 AB, 82 R, 159 H, 17 2B, 1 3B, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 49 BB, 110 SO, 0 SB, .283 AVG, .343 OBP, .537 SLG, .880 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

Adam Martin (Charlotte, Atlanta) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 132 G, 493 AB, 81 R, 139 H, 23 2B, 3 3B, 35 HR, 108 RBI, 45 BB, 100 SO, 3 SB, .281 AVG, .344 OBP, .553 SLG, .897 OPS
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

Derrick Russ (Montreal, Houston) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 148 G, 532 AB, 83 R, 146 H, 29 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 53 BB, 106 SO, 20 SB, .275 AVG, .346 OBP, .462 SLG, .808 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

Doug Stewart (Florida, St. Louis) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 135 G, 515 AB, 85 R, 136 H, 22 2B, 4 3B, 33 HR, 95 RBI, 59 BB, 91 SO, 20 SB, .264 AVG, .340 OBP, .516 SLG, .856 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star, 1 Silver Slugger, 3 Gold Gloves

Shortstops
Danny Alexander (Kansas City, Portland, Toronto, Florida) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 146 G, 562 AB, 96 R, 158 H, 28 2B, 3 3B, 32 HR, 98 RBI, 55 BB, 87 SO, 16 SB, .281 AVG, .347 OBP, .508 SLG, .855 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 1 Home Run Derby Champ, 5 Silver Sluggers (2 SS, 3 3B), 3 Gold Gloves (2 3B, 1 2B)

Sidney Cannon (Boston, Chicago Cubs, Washington, Anaheim, Milwaukee, San Diego) 8.5 seasons
Avg. Season: 151 G, 491 AB, 68 R, 136 H, 20 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 55 BB, 83 SO, 1 SB, .277 AVG, .355 OBP, .448 SLG, .803 OPS
Awards: 4 All-Stars

Jake Clapp (Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Baltimore, San Francisco, Los Angeles) 8.5 seasons
Avg. Season: 148 G, 553 AB, 107 R, 166 H, 30 2B, 6 3B, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 52 BB, 54 SO, 25 SB, .300 AVG, .362 OBP, .574 SLG, .936 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers (3 SS, 2 3B), 1 Gold Glove (3B), 3 MVPs

Willie Edmonds (Cincinnati, Atlanta) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 142 G, 486 AB, 81 R, 124 H, 28 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 44 BB, 86 SO, 23 SB, .255 AVG, .317 OBP, .471 SLG, .788 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star, 2 Silver Sluggers, 4 Gold Gloves

Richard Ishii (Seattle, Boston) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 149 G, 593 AB, 92 R, 167 H, 30 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 87 RBI, 51 BB, 74 SO, 32 SB, .281 AVG, .341 OBP, .422 SLG, .763 OPS
Awards: 3 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers

Left Fielders
Arthur Boggs (Anaheim, Baltimore) 7 seasons
Avg. Season: 153 AB, 586 AB, 102 R, 184 H, 30 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 104 RBI, 79 BB, 76 SO, 0 SB, .314 AVG, .398 OBP, .531 SLG, .929 OPS
Awards: 3 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers (3 LF, 1 1B), 1 Gold Glove (1B)

Orber Julio (Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 149 G, 545 AB, 92 R, 143 H, 20 2B, 4 3B, 45 HR, 118 RBI, 57 BB, 107 SO, 6 SB, .262 AVG, .340 OBP, .562 SLG, .902 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Gold Glove, Rookie of the Year, 1 MVP

Julio Martin (Chicago Cubs) 9 seasons (Numerous Injuries)
Avg. Season: 128 G, 502 AB, 84 R, 152 H, 28 2B, 2 3B, 29 HR, 85 RBI, 50 BB, 55 BB, 4 SB, .303 AVG, .373 OBP, .538 SLG, .911 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

Harry Reid (Cleveland, Portland, Kansas City) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 142 G, 567 AB, 107 R, 159 H, 37 2B, 5 3B, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 63 BB, 64 SO, 32 SB, .280 AVG, .355 OBP, .509 SLG, .864 OPS
Awards: 3 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

Del Wilhelm (Philadelphia, Cleveland) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 150 G, 609 AB, 130 R, 186 H, 39 2B, 8 3B, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 74 BB, 83 SO, 33 SB, .305 AVG, .390 OBP, .564 SLG, .954 OPS
Awards: 6 All-Stars, 1 Home Run Derby Champ, 7 Silver Sluggers (5 LF, 2 RF)

Center Fielders
Damian Chen (Detroit) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 140 G, 583 AB, 103 R, 165 H, 32 2B, 8 3B, 31 HR, 109 RBI, 52 BB, 103 SO, 39 SB, .283 AVG, .345 OBP, .524 SLG, .869 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers, 1 MVP

Robert Jefferson (Milwaukee, New York Yankees) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 156 G, 633 AB, 107 R, 179 H, 23 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 66 BB, 83 SO, 37 SB, .282 AVG, .362 OBP, .380 SLG, .742 OPS
Awards: 3 All-Stars, 1 Gold Glove

Frank Jorgensen (Philadelphia) 9 seasons (Major Injury S4)
Avg. Season: 142 G, 546 AB, 94 R, 153 H, 22 2B, 3 3B, 44 HR, 114 RBI, 49 BB, 80 SO, 3 SB, .281 AVG, .347 OBP, .575 SLG, .922 OPS
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers

Shea Keefe (Houston, New York Yankees, Milwaukee, San Diego) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 148 G, 563 AB, 88 R, 170 H, 30 2B, 3 3B, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 68 BB, 101 SO, 11 SB, .302 AVG, .381 OBP, .459 SLG, .840 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger

Cliff Rivers (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Atlanta) 9.2 seasons
Avg. Season: 134 G, 547 AB, 89 R, 147 H, 26 2B, 2 3B, 32 HR, 85 RBI, 53 BB, 100 SO, 1 SB, .268 AVG, .335 OBP, .497 SLG, .832 OPS
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers

Right Fielders
Guy Cunningham (New York Yankees) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 134 G, 532 AB, 93 R, 165 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 41 BB, 93 SO, 12 SB, .310 AVG, .365 OBP, .549 SLG, .914 OPS
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 1 All-Star MVP, 3 Silver Sluggers, 1 Gold Glove (1B)

B.C. Javier (Charlotte) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 145 G, 549 AB, 108 R, 154 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 121 BB, 47 SO, 5 SB, .280 AVG, .411 OBP, .506 SLG, .917 OPS
Awards: 7 All-Stars, 6 Silver Sluggers, 2 Gold Gloves

Willie Jose (Florida, San Diego, Portland, Montreal, New York Yankees) 8.2 seasons
Avg. Season: 150 G, 554 AB, 79 R, 148 H, 22 2B, 2 3B, 32 HR, 95 RBI, 47 BB, 120 SO, 3 SB, .268 AVG, .328 OBP, .490 SLG, .818 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star

Eric Roosevelt (Atlanta) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 148 G, 537 AB, 99 R, 134 H, 16 2B, 2 3B, 39 HR, 103 RBI, 87 BB, 118 SO, 8 SB, .249 AVG, .359 OBP, .505 SLG, .864 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars

James Sherman (Pittsburgh) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 145 G, 517 AB, 85 R, 151 H, 24 2B, 2 3B, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 62 BB, 66 SO, 2 SB, .291 AVG, .373 OBP, .523 SLG, .896 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star, 2 Silver Sluggers

Designated Hitters
Rick Melhuse (Toronto, Milwaukee) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 137 G, 466 AB, 82 R, 136 H, 26 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 75 BB, 73 SO, 0 SB, .292 AVG, .392 OBP, .508 SLG, .900 OPS
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers

Al Perez (Kansas City, Baltimore) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 139 G, 529 AB, 81 R, 144 H, 22 H, 1 3B, 40 HR, 106 RBI, 53 BB, 96 SO, 0 SB, .273 AVG, .341 OBP, .549 SLG, .890 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star

Brandon Sutton (Los Angeles, New York Yankees) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 135 G, 515 AB, 93 R, 169 H, 26 2B, 2 3B, 31 HR, 102 RBI, 69 BB, 54 SO, 0 SB, .328 AVG, .409 OBP, .569 SLG, .978 OPS
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers

Darryl Whitaker (Anaheim, Boston) 9 seasons (Major Injury S3)
Avg. Season: 131 G, 467 AB, 77 R, 140 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 39 HR, 103 RBI, 49 BB, 74 SO, 0 SB, .300 AVG, .368 OBP, .596 SLG, .964 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star, 2 Silver Sluggers

Todd Winchester (Chicago White Sox) 9.5 seasons
Avg. Season: 140 G, 505 AB, 75 R, 144 H, 21 2B, 1 3B, 33 HR, 97 RBI, 53 BB, 85 SO, 0 SB, .286 AVG, .360 OBP, .531 SLG, .891 OPS
Awards: 1 All-Star, 1 Silver Slugger

Starting Pitchers
Buck Barry (Los Angeles, Texas) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 32 G, 13 W, 9 L, 199 INN, 64 BB, 147 SO, .243 OAV, .307 OBP, .376 SLG, 1.25 WHIP, 3.51 ERA
Awards: 2 All-Stars

Kordell Becker (Seattle, Tampa Bay) 8.2 seasons
Avg. Season: 31 G, 11 W, 7 L, 175 INN, 55 BB, 126 SO, .230 OAV, .295 OBP, .352 SLG, 1.19 WHIP, 3.07 ERA
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Gold Glove

Jeff Bollea (Boston, Baltimore, Texas, Detroit, New York Mets) 9.7 seasons (Major Injury S2) (8 SP)
Avg. Season: 33 G, 13 W, 6 L, 193 INN, 67 BB, 159 SO, .241 OAV, .310 OBP, .373 SLG, 1.27 WHIP, 3.67 ERA
Awards: 5 All-Stars

Andres Cedeno (Montreal, New York Mets) 8.66 seasons
Avg. Season: 32 G, 16 W, 8 L, 213 INN, 61 BB, 155 SO, .235 OAV, .294 OBP, .357 SLG, 1.18 WHIP, 3.29 ERA
Awards: 8 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young

Darren Chance (Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Boston, Houston) 10 seasons (8 SP)
Avg. Season: 34 G, 13 W, 7 L, 184 INN, 59 BB, 170 SO, .238 OAV, .303 OBP, .355 SLG, 1.21 WHIP, 3.21 ERA
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs

Haywood Charles (Milwaukee, Anaheim, Kansas City) 9 seasons (Major Injury S7)
Avg. Season: 35 G, 15 W, 11 L, 218 INN, 62 BB, 152 SO, .255 OAV, .312 OBP, .397 SLG, 1.28 WHIP, 3.91 ERA
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young

Perry Harvey (Philadelphia, Chicago White Sox) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 33 G, 14 W, 8 L, 199 INN, 73 BB, 152 SO, .232 OAV, .306 OBP, .380 SLG, 1.24 WHIP, 3.80 ERA
Awards: 3 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 2 Cy Youngs

Walt Hernandez (New York Mets) 7 seasons
Avg. Season: 31 G, 13 W, 6 L, 202 INN, 59 BB, 198 SO, .203 OAV, .268 OBP, .301 SLG, 1.03 WHIP, 2.46 ERA
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 3 Cy Youngs

Pedro Mercado (Montreal) 7 seasons
Avg. Season: 32 G, 14 W, 7 L, 211 INN, 58 BB, 154 SO, .244 OAV, .299 OBP, .385 SLG, 1.21 WHIP, 3.47 ERA
Awards: 3 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young

Ozzie Percival (Washington, New York Yankees) 9.2 seasons (Major Injury S3)
Avg. Season: 37 G, 17 W, 9 L, 222 INN, 65 BB, 148 SO, .244 OAV, .303 OBP, .354 SLG, 1.22 WHIP, 3.22 ERA
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young

Scot Pickford (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Portland, New York Yankees) 9.5 Seasons (Major Injury S8-9)
Avg. Season: 33 G, 14 W, 7 L, 193 INN, 64 BB, 171 SO, .241 OAV, .307 OBP, .369 SLG, 1.25 WHIP, 3.57 ERA
Awards: 3 All-Stars

Patrick Rivera (Kansas City, New York Yankees) 10 seasons
Avg. Season: 33 G, 17 W, 8 L, 221 INN, 64 BB, 205 SO, .244 OAV, .303 OBP, .379 SLG, 1.22 WHIP, 3.42 ERA
Awards: 7 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs

J.P. Taveras (Montreal) 8.2 seasons
Avg. Season: 32 G, 14 W, 7 L, 195 INN, 52 BB, 179 SO, .238 OAV, .294 OBP, .361 SLG, 1.17 WHIP, 3.34 ERA
Awards: 2 All-Stars

Felipe Tejada (Arizona, Anaheim) 9 seasons
Avg. Season: 32 G, 15 W, 9 L, 215 INN, 68 BB, 164 SO, .246 OAV, .308 OBP, .367 SLG, 1.26 WHIP, 3.48 ERA
Awards: 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Cy Young

Branch Vitiello (Minnesota, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay) 8 seasons
Avg. Season: 32 G, 16 W, 7 L, 191 INN, 63 BB, 170 SO, .236 OAV, .303 OBP, .345 SLG, 1.22 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs

Middle Relievers
Victor Lima (Detroit, Florida, San Francisco, Boston) 10 seasons (3 MR)
Avg. Season: 44 G, 7 W, 4 L, 17 SV, 20 SVO, 107 INN, 25 BB, 98 SO, .224 OAV, .276 OBP, .331 SLG, 1.07 WHIP, 2.59 ERA
Awards: 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman of the Year

Turner Mordecai (Charlotte) 10 seasons (10 MR)
Avg. Season: 58 G, 10 W, 5 L, 4 SV, 5 SVO, 160 INN, 54 BB, 140 SO, .244 OAV, .310 OBP, .369 SLG, 1.27 WHIP, 3.44 ERA
Awards: 1 All-Star

Julio Romero (San Francisco, New York Yankees, Toronto) 10 seasons (9 MR)
Avg. Season: 58 G, 9 W, 6 L, 6 SV, 8 SVO, 127 INN, 40 BB, 101 SO, .252 OAV, .314 OBP, .387 SLG, 1.29 WHIP, 3.84 ERA
Awards: None

Wes Roosevelt (Kansas City, New York Mets) 9 seasons (9 MR)
Avg. Season: 81 G, 9 W, 6 L, 6 SVO, 10 SVO, 129 INN, 33 BB, 104 SO, .236 OAV, .289 OBP, .351 SLG, 1.15 WHIP, 2.96 ERA
Awards: None

Alfonso Trajano (Atlanta) 9.5 seasons (9 MR)
Avg. Season: 79 G, 7 W, 4 L, 6 SVO, 11 SVO, 116 INN, 38 BB, 88 SO, .221 OAV, .290 OBP, .319 SLG, 1.14 WHIP, 2.72 ERA
Awards: 2 All-Stars

Closers
Raul Astacio (St. Louis, Boston, New York Mets) 10 seasons (8 CL)
Avg. Season: 58 G, 2 W, 4 L, 31 SV, 37 SVO, 69 INN, 24 BB, 54 SO, .258 OAV, .324 OBP, .392 SLG, 1.34 WHIP, 3.94 ERA
Awards: 5 All-Stars, 1 Fireman of the Year

Vic Castillo (Kansas City, New York Yankees, Washington) 10 seasons (8 CL)
Avg. Season: 45 G, 1 W, 1 L, 33 SV, 35 SVO, 40 INN, 9 BB, 30 SO, .218 OAV, .265 OBP, .315 SLG, 1.04 WHIP, 2.18 ERA
Awards: 8 All-Stars, 4 Fireman of the Years

Matthew Crosby (Washington, Tampa Bay) 10 seasons (7 CL)
Avg. Season: 56 G, 6 W, 5 L, 23 SV, 28 SVO, 89 INN, 28 BB, 91 SO, .211 OAV, .279 OBP, .314 SLG, 1.09 WHIP, 2.73 WHIP
Awards: 1 All-Star

James Hutton (Seattle, Baltimore) 8.5 seasons (7 CL)
Avg. Season: 58 G, 2 W, 4 L, 38 SV, 44 SVO, 62 INN, 19 BB, 50 SO, .253 OAV, .312 OBP, .394 SLG, 1.29 WHIP, 4.10 ERA
Awards: 7 All-Stars, 2 Fireman of the Years

Carlos Solano (Los Angeles, Florida) 10 seasons (10 CL)
Avg. Season: 56 G, 1 W, 4 L, 37 SV, 42 SVO, 54 INN, 18 BB, 45 SO, .239 OAV, .306 OBP, .378 SLG, 1.24 WHIP, 3.80 ERA
Awards: 6 All-Stars, 1 Fireman of the Year

Kinsella's First Decade By the Numbers

2010-04-07T13:57:00.000-07:00

Most ML Regular Season Wins:
1. New York Yankees - 944
2. Philadelphia Phillies - 937
3. Washington DC Nationals - 921
4. Arizona Diamondbacks - 912
5. San Francisco Giants - 910

Least ML Regular Season Wins:
1. Milwaukee Brewers - 664
2. Baltimore Orioles - 675
3. Houston Astros - 692
4. Florida Marlins - 708
5. Minnesota Twins - 722

Most ML Playoff Appearances:
1. Philadelphia Phillies - 9
2. Anaheim Angels - 8
3t. Atlanta Braves - 7
3t. Montreal Expos - 7
3t. New York Yankees - 7
3t. San Francisco Giants - 7

Least ML Playoff Appearances:
1t. Baltimore Orioles - 0
1t. Cleveland Indians - 0
1t. Milwaukee Brewers - 0
1t. San Diego Padres - 0
5t. Five teams - 1

Most ML Division Titles:
1. New York Yankees - 7
2t. Atlanta Braves -6
2t. Montreal Expos - 6
2t. San Francisco Giants - 6
5t. Six teams - 4

Least ML Division Titles:
1t. Seven teams (4 above plus Seattle, LA, and Pittsburgh) - 0

Most ML Playoff Wins:
1. Philadelphia Phillies - 51
2. Anaheim Angels - 50
3t. Atlanta Braves - 31
3t. San Francisco Giants - 31
5. New York Yankees - 29

Most ML WS Appearances:
1t. Philadelphia Phillies - 3
1t. Tampa Bay Rays - 3
3t. 14 teams - 1

Most ML WS Championships:
1. Philadelphia Phillies - 2
2t. 8 teams - 1

Mid-Season Player Awards

2010-02-28T07:44:00.000-08:00

As we go into the All-Star break, let's take a look at the first half's outstanding performances...who would be our first half MVP's, Cy Young's and Rookies of the Year?

AL MVP
We'll start with an easy one. Kansas City's Lorenzo Manto is having perhaps the best season ever by a middle infielder in the history of Kinsella. He leads the league in average, OBP, and OPS; and he's second in slugging, stolen bases, doubles and runs. Runnerup: Texas' Juan Marrero, who playing a sterling (maybe gold) CF in addition to slamming 30 homers. Honorable mention: Toronto's Carlos Cruz (.655 Slugging, 32 HR's), Seattle's James Hunter (.401 OBP, 25 HR's), and Cleveland's Douglas Martin (.300 BA, 33 HR's). Overrated: KC's Hersh Taylor is having another fine year, but his teammate Manto is at least as repsonsible for his 105 RBI as he is.

AL Cy Young
3-way race among Charlotte's Warren Justice and Tampa Bay's Branch Vitiello and Santos Lorenzo. Forget wins and look at the qualitatives. Lorenzo has been the stingiest with baserunners but has been slightly homer-prone. Vitiello has the lowest slugging against. OPS against: Lorenzo - .581; Justice - .594; Vitiello - .601. It's Lorenzo by a whisker.

AL Rookie
It's an all-pitching race for AL Rookie, with Kansas City's Sun Wanatabe and Armando Taveras, and Tampa Bay's Fred Lewis the candidates. These three have put up remarkably similar numbers across the board...Lewis is slightly less walk-prone and slightly more homer-prone than the KC pair. Tough choice but the pick is Lewis - slightly lower BA, OBP and Slugging-against.

NL MVP
This has been a 2-man race between Atlanta's Dee Dee Hutton and San Fran's Sam Kubinski. They're 1-2 in OPS (by a fairly wide margin over Cincy's Douglas Carpenter). Hutton has the better hitting numbers, while Kubinski plays a much more critical position defensively (although detractors could say he doesn't play it all that well). The nod: Kubinski, due to the greater defensive contribution. Honorable mention: Carpenter (1.006 OPS and 33 HR's) and Atlanta's Chad Seabol (.966 OPS, .981 Fielding % at 2B).

NL Cy Young
The Mets' Walt Hernandez in a runaway. He's put up a ridiculous .516 OPS-against (closest competitor: Andres Cedeno at .568). Teammate Cedeno is a distant second. Honorable mention: St. Louis' Luis Duran and Miguel Padilla, San Fran's Cristobol Redondo.

NL Rookie
Almost the exact opposite of the AL, the NL race this year features hitters. The leading contenders are a pair of Milwaukee prospects, CF Bruce Lewis and 3B/RF Bobby Simmons. I like Simmons' better OBP (.370 vs. .345 for Lewis), but Lewis has provided more power (.583 slugging vs. Simmons' .524) and better defense. Lewis is the pick, with Simmons the runnerup. Honorable mention: Mets' C Fred Canseco (.430 OBP), Arizona 1B David Cubillan (.862 OPS) and Frisco setup man Joe Canseco (2.15 ERA in 46 innings).

Poll Results: TB Big FA Winner

2010-01-26T13:37:00.000-08:00

As expected, Tampa Bay was deemed the big winner this year in free agency and won the poll with 14 out of the 21 votes. With 2 mysterious "Other" votes, the only other known votes were the 5 of you that would not want to deal with the financial burden of those huge contracts.

AL South Season 10 Preview

2010-01-19T14:28:00.000-08:00

RAYS
Out: RF Cristobal Marquez
In: C Bob Riggs, OF Rex Yearwood, CF Scott Perry, RP Matthew Crosby, SP's Branch Vitiello and Kordell Becker
Impact Rookies: SP Fred Lewis (Sea 7 #1 overall)
Payroll: $90MM
Tampa Bay looks like a super-team on paper, but predictions like that have a way of not working out. Still, you have to think the lineup is better, and the Front 3 of Vitiello, Becker, Lorenzo rivals that of the Mets' Hernandez, Cedeno, Spooneybarger.

RANGERS
Out: RF Jason Walls, SP Davey Molina
In: 1B Vin Benitez, LR Mark Butler
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $68MM
In a bit of a surprise, Texas was a non-factor in free agency. There are many who believe Juan Marrero should've won the MVP last season; as long as he and Sherry Pierre are in Texas, they'll be a playoff contender.

ROYALS
Out: SP Haywood Charles and RP Bill Mouton
In: LF Harry Reid, RF Jason Walls and RP J.P. Morales
Impact Rookies: SP's Armando Taveras (Sea 7 #2 overall) and Sun Wanatabe (Sea 7 IFA - $15.2MM Bonus);
Payroll: $61MM
KC's offense was pretty good last year (6th with 803 runs); add 2 solid COF's and you've got a very dangerous lineup. If their 2 rookie SP's figure it out right away, this team could easily contend.

KNIGHTS
Out: LF Adam Martin
In: none
Impact Rookies: SS Earl Barclay
Payroll: $94MM
The offense is there (5th last season with 816 runs), but the pitching slipped badly last year (from 5th to 13th) and hasn't really been addressed. With their most valuable assets (2B Earl Jorgenson, RF Jose Mondesi, SP Warren Justice) now in their 30's and little help coming from the farm system, Charlotte management may be considering selling.

Sizing Up the Race:
I think this will be a surprisingly close 3-team race, with Tampa Bay, Texas and Kansas City all in playoff contention. Ultimately I think the Rays will win it, but don't be surprised if Texas tops 100 wins again and the Royals get to 95.

AL West Season 10 Preview

2010-01-19T14:27:00.000-08:00

ATHLETICS
Out: RP Fernando James, SP Ossie Flynn
In: none
Impact Rookies: 2B Hector Bennett (Sea 5 IFA, $15.3MM bonus), CF Alex Suzuki (Sea 7 IFA, $12MM bonus - still in AAA), SP's Andy Daly (Sea 5 #13 overall - still in AAA) and Mike Gonzalez (Sea 7 IFA, $11.6MM bonus - still in AAA), RP Gerardo Rodriguez (Sea 8 IFA, $$13.8MM bonus - still in AAA).
Payroll: $40MM
Of the 22 players currently on Oakland's ML roster, 14 are home-grown and promoted to the majors in the last 4 years. And there are 4 more good ones in AAA ready to go. They're set to dominate the division for the next 10 years.

ANGELS
Out: CF DaRond Wagner, SP Felipe Tejada, RP's Bennie Chouinard and Jorge Guapo
In: SP's Haywood Charles, Josias Rosado, and Frank Montgomery
Impact Rookies: SP Marty Kelley (Sea 4 #52 OVR), RP Geronimo Ramirez (Sea 4 IFA by CLE, $8.2MM bonus), IF Phil Kojima (Sea 7 IFA, $5.1MM bonus - still in AAA)
Payroll: $67MM
Anaheim has almost completely reworked its starting rotation...it has probably improved a staff that put up a 4.53 ERA last year (8th). The lineup that was 10th with 761 runs last year is back pretty much intact. They could top last year's 74 wins but aren't likely to hang with Oakland this year.

BEAVERS
Out: C Rico Ayala, LF Harry Reid, 3B Justin Griffiths, SP's Rabbit Tracy and Adam Anderson
In: none
Impact Rookies: DH Bobby Raggio (Sea 7 #58 overall), RF Juan Pulido (Sea 3 #132 overall), SP's Davey Aquino (Sea 5 IFA, $9.2MM bonus) and Bryan Karl (Sea 4 #83 overall), C Rick Hall (Sea 5 #31 overall still in AAA).
Payroll: $43MM
Reid's a big loss from LF, but Portland should be able to get a little bump to its offense from the slugging C platoon of Hall and Louie Mercedes, plus DH Raggio. It's an all-out youth movement for an already-young Portland team. If they can get some pitching improvement, they could pass Anaheim for 2nd.

MARINERS
Out: SP Kordell Becker, RP James Hutton
In: C's Nick Gonzalez and Earl Duffy
Impact Rookies: SP Ted Dirks (Sea 7 #20 overall)
Payroll: $87MM
End of the Becker/Hutton era in Seattle...9 All-Star appearances and 2 FOY's out the door, and that's tough to replace. We're likely seeing the beginning of a serious rebuilding effort.

Sizing Up the Race:
This one could be over early. Oakland won by 4 games last year ad has clearly improved way more than the other 3 teams. The only suspense here might be whether Portland's kids can make up 7 games on the Angels and get 2nd. Seattle suffered 2 huge FA hits and is a good bet to bring up the rear this season.

NL East Season 10 Preview

2010-01-19T07:14:00.000-08:00

METS
Out: RF Dick Lightenberg
In: no notables
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $73MM
Lightenberg will be sorely missed; his replacement, rookie Ted Lombardi, is exactly the kind of player obsoleted by the end of the steroid era. So, a little more pressure on the NL's best pitching staff. Fortunately, they're up to the challenge.

NATIONALS
Out: SS Willie Camacho; C Henry Shuey; RP's Graham Brown, Matthew Crosby, and Homer Flanagan.
In: 1B Raymond Baker, 3B Justin Griffiths, CF Pat Decker, RP's Hector Mendoza and Vic Castillo.
Impact Rookies: SP Les Walker (Sea 6 #30 overall - still in AAA)
Payroll: $70MM
D.C. also re-signed C Enrique Gonzalez and SP/LR Allen Sosa to relatively modest FA deals. Lotta movement...the net is the bullpen is a little shakier, they have 3 3B's, and they're still looking for a SS (Grffiths may get the nod there). They were only 6 back on the Mets last year...should be a tighter race this season.

PHILLIES
Out: 3B Frank Bass, LF Alexander Myers, 1B Pedro Garrido
In: LF Orber Julio, SP Stuart Flynn
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $97MM
The very good staff (4th in ERA at 3.87 last year) is back intact, so it's all about the lineup in Philly. Orber Julio had his best season in years in Season 9; if he can repeat, it'll at least soften the loss of Garrido. 3rd-year men Johnnie Young (OF) and Felipe Oropesa (1B) will have to step up.

PIRATES
Out: LF Orber Julio, RF James Sherman, SP Orlando Guerrero
In: none
Impact Rookies: none
Payroll: $63MM
Pittsburgh shed 3 veterans to cut payroll and concentrate on rebuilding. They'll rely on a cadre of 2nd-year players to improve, although we could see AAA SP's Danys Lopex and Ozzie Jordan before the season's out.

Sizing Up the Race:
The Mets could possibly back up, but not much. The Nationals and Phillies could both press them, but I think D.C. has done more to improve. Tough to beat the Mets' pitching though...Mets over D.C. in a closer race than last year.

NL North Season 10 Preview

2010-01-19T06:23:00.000-08:00

EXPOS
Out: CF Gordon Scanlan, RP Jonathan Perry
In: CF Trinidad Woodward, RP Derrek Carpenter, RP Grant Snavely
Impact Rookies: None
Payroll: $107MM
Montreal returns essentially the same squad, although Perry's 100+ innings will be missed. Nothing to suggest a dropoff here - they're the favorite to repeat.

REDS
Out: CF Cliff Rivers, RP Howie Voight
In: no notables
Impact Rookies: None
Payroll: $56MM
Retrenching year in Cincy? The offense was 7th last year and Rivers is a big loss (defensively, too).

CUBS
Out: P's Hector Mendoza and Heinie Figueroa
In: SP Davey Molina, CD Gordon Scanlan, RP's Howie Voigt and Graham Brown
Impact Rookies: SP Bruce Thurman (Season 6 #22 overall)
Payroll: $130MM
Chicago took a stretched payroll and stretched it some more. Team ERA was 9th last year - look for a nice improvement. The Cubbies are going all-out to contend and I think they will.

BREWERS
Out: P's Earl Patterson (age 42), Eli Lira (age 37), J.P. Morales; RF Duke Beckett
In: SP's Del Perron and Willie Hermanson, RP Jonathan Perry, C Patrick Romero, 1B Valerio Guillen
Impact Rookies: 2B Alex Almanzar (Sea 3 IFA - $11MM by NYY), CF Bruce Lewis (Sea 6 #3 overall), RF Bobby Simmons (Sea 7 #3 overall)
Payroll: $77MM
Perhaps the biggest off-season in the NL. Milwaukee went for moderately-priced, 2 and 3-year FA deals to supplement their prospect influx. Can't see a huge improvement in their pitching, but they could pass last year's 674 runs by Game 120.

Sizing Up the Race:
The Cubbies will make a strong run, but Montreal holds on to win the division. Cincy slides enough for the surging Brewers to take 3rd.

Free Agency Part 2

2010-01-17T20:39:00.000-08:00

The Rays made the big headlines, but there was plenty of other action on the free agency front. This is now officially the biggest free agency class in Kinsella history, with 35 (so far) A and B free agents signing.

RAYS - $240MM over the next 5 years for pitchers Vitiello, Becker and Crosby. What'd they buy? Favorite status, a 5-year window for multiple WS titles, and a boatload of budget problems starting in Season 13. Certainly no bargains here, but you gotta give these signings a thumbs up for boldness.

DODGERS - LA jumped in during the last cycle and fished out some bargains. Bryan Reed (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2years) can hit for sure...are we seeing a trend to low-PC C's, or is he going to be a bad-catch, good-throw 1B? Duke Beckett and Dick Lightenberg (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2 years) form a perfect RF platoon. Happy Blume (Bargain Signing - $2.6/2 years) is the ideal "big-ballpark" 100-inning setup reliever.

ORIOLES - Baltimore went both big and budget. First, they shelled out $13.5 per for 4 years for James Hutton, then grabbed slugger Jim Thomas (Bargain Signing - $2.75/2 years). Hutton has been closing for Seattle, but may find a new role as a 120+ inning setup man. Thomas likely takes over in RF.

PADRES - San Diego added a pair of sinkerballing RP's in Gary King (nice touch with the ultra front end-loaded contract for trade purposes) and Fernando James ($3.9MM/2 years).

TWINS - Minnesota picked up a nice C in Morgan Stephenson (Bargain Signing - $4.1MM/2 years) and a budget SP in Rabbit Tracy ($3.0MM/2years).

BREWERS - Milwaukee continued to add pieces with setup man Jonathan Perry. Not quite a bargain at an average of $6.8 for 2 years, he'll still be a welcome addition to an improving Brewers team.

ROYALS - KC corralled perhaps the best hitter of free agency's 2nd half, LF Harry Reid (4 years, $7.1MM with a $1MM bonus). KC is another team on the rise with multiple impact rookies arriving this year.

Early Free Agency News

2010-01-16T05:58:00.000-08:00

The Braves and Cubs dominated early free agency, which has seen some big numbers and big bargains.

BRAVES - Atlanta has been the big spender so far, dishing out $187MM. Thumbs up on the Cliff Rivers contract - at $13.4MM a year it's no bargain but offense like that just doesn't show up in CF very often. If Chad Seabol's Season 9 was just a down year, his $9.6MM a year will be OK; otherwise the Braves are paying him about $480K per homer. I don't know if they could've landed a better pitcher than Orlando Guerrero, but they could've gotten something similar for way less $$ - they did with Ramiro Diaz (Bargain Signing). SS Willie Camacho is a nice complimentary signing.

CUBS - Chicago concentrated on the bullpen, getting Howie Voigt, Graham Brown and Phillip Munson. They also landed a starter - Davey Molina (Bargain Signing - 1 year at 5.2) - and a CF - Gordon Scanlan - who finally gets paid after 3 straight All-Star appearances.

BREWERS - Watch out for Milwaukee this year. They add former Yankees Patrick Romero and Valerio Guillen (Bargain Signing) to a lineup that now includes two former #3 overall picks (CF Bruce Lewis and RF Bobby Simmons). Willie Hermanson isn't bad at $5.7MM but I think they could've done better.

INDIANS - AL gets in on the action with a trio of nice signings by Cleveland. Pedro Garrido was the big name (and the big contract at $9MM per). Some people might argue his power rating will go down a lot over 5 years...so what? He'll still be a .300 hitter at age 36 and power just ain't what it used to be. They also got a couple of nice deals on SP's: Stephen Fischer at $6.2/2 years and Buddy Truman at $5.8/5 years.

NATIONALS - D.C. has been the most effective bargain-hunter so far. They started with some familiar talent - C Enrique Gonzales (MEGA-BARGAIN at $4MM/ 1 year) and SP/LR Allen Sosa (MEGA-BARGAIN at $5.2/4 years). Then they added some pop in CF with Pat Decker ($5.28MM/4 years), and took a shot at coaxing 1 more year out of Vic Castillo for $700K.

The drama builds on Vitiello and Becker. Tampa Bay, Oakland, Kansas City, and Detroit are widely believed to be in the bidding; Anaheim, D.C., the White Sox and Florida are believed by some to be active in the sweepstakes; and a few observers think San Diego, Minnesota, Portland and Los Angeles are masquerading as rebuilders and quietly hoping to snare an ace SP.

Free Agency By The Numbers

2010-01-14T12:45:00.000-08:00

With free agency underway and the general consensus that this is a "big free agent class", thought I'd do a little research to see what the numbers say.

7 - smallest number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella (Season 5)
18.7 - average number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella
34- largest number of A/B free agents signed in a season in Kinsella (Season 3)
47 - number of A/B free agents available this year (at least). 22 pitchers, 25 postion players

Clearly, Season 5 was a real drought. I wasn't here in Season 3, but my first year in Field of Dreams, we had 35 A/B free agents and that was a blast. My team signed nearly an entire pitching staff in FA, including 3 starters who were in CY contention all year and an overpaid RP who turned in about a 5.50 ERA.

With 47 A/B's available, it looks like a slam dunk we'll break our record of 34.

I'm not sure what this says about the prices at the top end, but I'll bet it just about guarantees there will be some bargains to be had.

Probably also means a bigger shakeup in "the order of things" is possible this year than in most.

Winter Meetings Preview

2010-01-13T14:36:00.000-08:00

Speculation abounds as the Kinsella Winter Meetings anticipate the richest free-agent crop in league history.

Rumors are flying furiously as to the next destinations for big names Branch Vitiello, Kordell Becker, and reigning NL MVP Pedro Garrido: Atlanta, Montreal, Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Mets, Detroit and Arizona are believed to be readying hefty bids, but there are probably a dozen other teams that could present tempting offers to those superstars.

Perhaps more remarkable about this free-agent class is its depth: just about every postion has some stars or near-stars (think Chad Seabol, Cliff Rivers, Matthew Crosby, Valerio Guillen), plenty of solid starters (think Fernando James, Orlando Guerrero, Jason Walls, Stump Cambridge), sterling defenders (Ignacio Solano, Nicholas Haynes), and declining vets who could play pivotal roles with contenders (think Hayes Swann, Alfredo Johnson, Adam Martin).

Meanwhile, Houston and Tampa Bay pulled off the season's first trade:

Houston gets:
ML RF Cristobal Marquez
AA SS D'Angelo Romero
AAA IF Geoffrey Kelly
Sources say that Romero was the key figure for Houston, a Season 9 IFA. Marquez, who signed a 5-year FA contract with the Rays last year, is a steady if not hugely prolific run producer (21-36 HR's and driving in 78-99 runs in all 7 of his ML seasons). Kelly doesn't project to be a great hitter, but his defense at both 2B and 3B could mean a solid major league career.

Tampa Bay gets:
ML C Bob Riggs
ML OF Rex Yearwood
AA RP Mike Person
The Rays wanted to get more left-handed and they did with this trade. Riggs is one of the league's best-hitting C's; he'll get most of Tampa Bay's catcher innings. Yearwood will see ample playing time against RHP at RF, LF, DH and 1B. Person has a long way to go but with time could be a very good setup reliever.

Met's Ace Hernandez: HOF Bound?

2010-01-05T01:42:00.000-08:00

Kinsella has long been home to fine pitchers such as Darren Chance, Felipe Tejada, Ozzie Percival, Patrick Rivera, and Jeff Bollea, but one of the league’s top young guns may have established a new standard for single season excellence.

The New York Mets’ Walt Hernandez, after leading his club to a World Series appearance in Season Eight and inking a five-year, 44 million dollar deal during the offseason, turned in arguably the finest season any Kinsella pitcher has ever had.

The 29 year-old lefty posted a 21-4 record in 29 starts and established a new all-time low ERA of 1.52, a mark nearly .5 better than the previous record held by Pittsburgh’s Orlando Guerrero. Hernandez fanned 239 opposing batters, the second highest single-season total ever; walked just 62 hitters and held opponents to a .179 batting average against. His WHIP of .94 was also good enough for second all-time, only bested by his Season Seven tally of .94.

And what of those four losses? Three came against eventual playoff squads (Montreal, San Francisco, and Atlanta) and all four opponents were held to three earned runs or less. In fact, Hernandez was so dominant that no team scored more than three earned runs against him all season and 21 of his 29 outings were quality starts.

So where does the Mets’ lefty rank among all-time single season efforts?

Darren Chance, Season Five, Philadelphia Phillies
In his first full season with the Phillies Chance was nearly unhittable, posting a 17-7 mark in 34 starts. The then 34 year-old finished the season with a 2.04 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while fanning 209 and walking just 61.

Felipe Tejada, Season Two, Arizona Diamondbacks
During the heart of the steroid era no National League pitcher was more feared than Tejada, who won 22 games for the D-Backs in Season Two. Kinsella’s career leader in complete games finished 11 of his 35 starts that year, posting a 2.11 ERA and 22 wins while holding opposing batters to a paltry .191 batting average. Tejada struck out a career-high 219 batters that season and posted a WHIP of 1.00.

Patrick Rivera, Season Seven, New York Yankees
A year after spurning Kansas City for the bright lights and big money of New York City, Rivera dominated the American League en route to his only Cy Young award. He won 24 games for the eventual World Champs while posting a 2.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 221 strikeouts in 34 starts.

Ozzie Percival, Season Six, New York Yankees
Following a midseason trade from Washington during Season Five, Percival embarked on one of the most prolific stretches in Kinsella history, winning 36 games and posting a 2.55 ERA over the next year and a half. During Season Six, however, the right-hander put up his best effort. In that season he posted a 2.52 ERA and a 24-3 record in 221 innings, but did walk a career-high 79 batters and finish with a pedestrian 146 strikeouts.

Of course there are other hurlers that deserve recognition for seasons of excellence throughout the history of Kinsella, but each of the four above have long been recognized as the premier talent at the position. The point is not that Walt Hernandez has earned a right to be mentioned with them, but that it would be impossible not to mention him before them. Prognosticators had long labeled the lefty as the future, yet few would have predicted this level of dominance.

Here are Hernandez’ career totals through 184 starts, with his career rank in parentheses:

76 Wins (NR)
2.58 ERA (1)
1.05 WHIP (1)
8.88 K/9 (1)
.205 OAV (1)
2.71 OBP (1)
3.08 SLG (1)

NL Division Championships Recap

2009-12-30T16:28:00.000-08:00

The NL Division Series' both went 5 with favored Montreal squeezing pat the Braves, and San Francisco taking the Mets in perhaps a mild upset.

Montreal over Atlanta, 3-2: The teams split the first two, with Atlanta taking Game 1 in 10 on a Jude Snow sac fly and Montreal countering 7-1 in Game 2 behind 8 innings of J.P. Taveras 4-hit ball.

In the pivotal Game 3, the Expos got 2-run homers from Miguel Pena and Bernard Springer, and Diego Ibarra held the Braves to 4 hits over 7 for a 4-2 win and match point. Then Atlanta snapped back behind Matt Wilkerson to take Game 4, 3-1.

In the deciding game, Atlanta opened with a run in the first, but Montreal jumped ahead on another Springer 2-run bomb. Leading 3-2 with 2 out in the 4th, the Expos started the winning rally. Marte doubled and scored on Springer's single. Consecutive doubles by Freeman and Jose plated 2 more, and that was about it. Atlanta would get just one more, and Montreal took Game 5, 6-3. The Expos get their first trip to the NLCS since Season 6 (also against the Giants).

San Francisco over New York, 3-2: Things started well for the Giants, as the beat Walt Hernandez 3-1 in the opener. Then they dug a hole by dropping the next 2 - strong outings by the Mets' Cedeno and Spooneybarger.

Game 4 started with the Mets grabbing the advantage, thanks to a 1st-inning, Hiram Abbott 3-run homer. The Giants scrapped back to tie it 4-4 in the 7th, then in the 8th Phil Chang doubled home pinch-runner Matt McBride for the game-winner.

Game 5 was a pitchers' duel featuring the Mets' Cedeno and the Giants' Max Ferrer. The Giants went ahead 2-1 in the 7th on Jesus Figureoa's bloop single, and Schafer and Manning held the Mets scoreless over the last 2. San Francisco had the win and its 2nd trip to the NLCS.

AL Division Championship Recaps

2009-12-30T08:28:00.000-08:00

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Yankees over Tigers, 3-1: The Yankee pitching staff held Detroit to a .194 batting average and 8 runs, as New York cruised into the LCS for the 4th year in the last 5.

Game 1 was the only close game and the best chance Detroit had to get into the series. With ace Carson Graves on the hill, the Tigers led 1-0 in the 4th. But the Yanks got (all with 2 out) a single, 3 walks and a single to score 3. Detroit got one back in the 5th on a Bing Miles solo homer, but Rivera and Jacobsen went a perfect 12-up, 12-down the rest of the way.

After a New York blowout win in Game 2, the Tigers held off elimination behind a Diaz/Simmons/Yang 5-hit shutout. But the Yanks started fast in Game 4 (6-run 2nd, highlighted by a Jefferson slam) and held the Tiger bats to 6 hits and 2 runs for a 9-2 series clincher.

Rays over Rangers, 3-1: It was the Santos Lorenzo show, as the 21 year-old Cuban fired 2 complete-game shutouts.

Following the first Lorenzo gem in Game 1, Game 2 turned into the crucial contest in the series. Trailing 4-1 in the 7th, the Rangers chased Rays starter Blaine Lowry on a Brett Ross 2-run single, and closed the gap to 2 again on a Fonville solo in the 8th. Rays closer Houston Webb finally settled matters with a 1-2-3 ninth, and Tampa Bay took a commanding 2-game lead.

Texas came back with a 5-4 win in Game 3, as Sherry Pierre and 2 relievers worked around 15 hits. But Lorenzo and the Rays were dominant in Game 4, 7-0, and Tampa Bay earned its first trip to the LCS since Season 2.

Division Play-In Round Recaps

2009-12-27T09:55:00.000-08:00

Nothing you could call an upset in the Division Round, although the upstart White Sox pressed Detroit and had a chance in Game 5:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

(3) Detroit vs (6) Chicago: Defense, or lack of it, was the name of the game for Chicago, as the Sox allowed 11 unearned runs in Game 3 and Game 5 losses.

The teams split in Detroit, with starting pitchers - Carson Graves for Detroit in Game 1, and Randall Pearson for Chicago in Game 2 - dominating the action. The Tigers got 4 unearned runs to win Game 3, but Chicago bounced back to beat Graves in Game 4.

Game 5 started out smelling like an upset, with Chicago taking a 5-1 lead through 3. But 4 errors led to 7 unearned Detroit runs, and the Tigers cruised 10-5 in the decisive game.

Detroit now moves on the face the #2 Yankees; Chicago celebrates a fine season by a very young team, and sends a number of said youngsters to Winter Ball for extra fielding practice.

(4) Oakland vs. (5) Texas: The Rangers' pitching was just too much for the A's, allowing just 8 runs in the series.

Still, the A's had a chance in Game 4 to tie the series. With the game tied at 2 after 8, Oakland's Tony Rivera took one off the leg and stole second with 1 out. He got to third on a flyball to CF, but Texas reliever Ajax Patel got Douglas Cummings to ground to short, ending the threat. Then in the 10th, the Rangers got a single, a HBP and 2 walks to plate the winner.

Texas moves on to division rival Tampa Bay; Oakland heads home but looks forward to the promotion of another serious rookie crop in Season 10.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Washington, D.C.: The first 2 games were the crucial ones in this series, as the Braves took 2 squeakers for what turned out to be an insurnountable lead.

Freddie Long's single decide Game 1 in the bottom of the 10th. Game 2 saw the Braves rally from 2 down with a Hutton solo shot in the 8th and an Eric Roosevelt 2-run single in the 9th to take a 2-0 lead. D.C. broke out for 10 runs in Game 3 (HR's from Shuey and Jackson) to get back into the series, but Alejandro Vazquez tossed a complete game for Atlanta in Game 4; Roosevelt knocked in 3 for a 6-1 win and a trip to the second round.

The Braves take on Montreal in Round 2.

(3) San Francisco vs. (6) Philadelphia: Santiago Molina smacked a 3-run HR in the 4th, and Banjo Shafer and Virgil Manning shut down the Phillies over the last 3 as the Giants won Game 5, 3-2.

The teams split the first two before Philly gained the advantage, blowing out San Fran 9-2 in Game 3 (2 HR's for Jorgenson). The Giants countered with a 16-5 blowout of their own in Game 4 (Chang and Figureoa HR's) to even up the series and set up Molina's Game 5 heroics.

The Giants now advance to a Round 2 date with the Mets.

AL Stretch Run

2009-12-22T18:17:00.000-08:00

The AL picture is pretty clear, save for the Texas - Tampa Bay battle for the #1 seed. Here's the rundown with 6 games to go:

Detroit leads Chicago by 4 in the North, but the Sox have been slowly creeping up for awhile. It'll be interesting to see if the lead shrinks to 3 or less by the last series, when the two teams meet for a 3-game set. The division winner will get the #3 seed; runner-up takes the 6th seed (1 White Sox win or 1 Red Sox loss eliminates Boston from wild-card contention).

In the East, the Yankees have won the division for the 6th straight year and are set as the #2 seed.

In the South, the Rays take a 1-game lead over Texas into the last 6 games. Both teams have series with division rivals Kansas City and Charlotte, so there's no schedule advantage. Winner gets the #1 seed and a bye, runner-up will be the #5 seed.

Oakland has a 4-game lead on Anaheim out West; both teams play Seattle and Portland, so the Angels need at least 2 Athletics losses to keep hope alive. They tied the season series, and they're milimeters apart in the second and third tiebreakers. Either way, the winner has the #4 seed, and the runner-up starts working on next season.

Playoff Pairings

#3 Detroit or Chicago plays #6 Detroit or Chicago (although Boston could still get in); winner of that series plays # 2 New York.

#4 Oakland or Anaheim plays #5 Texas or Tampa Bay; winner of that series plays #1 Texas or Tampa Bay.

NL Stretch Run Report

2009-12-17T20:19:00.000-08:00

The NL Division Titles are all but set, but that doesn't mean the playoff picture is clear by any means. 4 teams are within 2 games of each other for the 2 wildcards, and the Cubs and Padres are a winning streak from getting into it. Here's the rundown:

In the North, Montreal leads the league in scoring by a wide margin, with Kevin Marte (.321/27/91) making his annual MVP bid. They're also dominating the Cy Young ballot, with Pedro Mercado (17-5, 2.63), J.P. Taveras (18-4, 2.88) and John McCall (43 saves, 3.02) all up for the top pitching trophy. They'll be the #1 seed.

Barring an epic collapse, the Mets will celebrate their first East Divison crown. Walt Hernandez has been, well, Walt Hernandez (19-4, 1.45), and Andres Cedeno has been at least Hernandez-like (16-5, 2.81). They haven't been an offensive juggernaut, but with a team ERA of 3.01, they don't have to be. They're tied with the Giants for the #2 seed at the moment (and own the first tie-break).

Atlanta has wrapped up its 6th straight title in the South. Dee Dee Hutton's having his usual monster year (.304/38/122), and even though the pitching staff has fallen off a bit from last year, it's still 4th in the league with a 3.80 ERA. They're headed for the #4 seed.

Out West, the Giants are cruising to their 5th straight crown. They're not the best at anything, but they're pretty good at everything - 8th in runs, 7th in ERA, and tied for 3rd in fielding. Virgil Manning (41 saves, 3.06) has a shot at a rare double - ROY and FOY. They're in a dead heat with the Mets for the #2 seed.

The wildcards are a 4-team dogfight. Currently, the Phillies and Nationals are 2 games up on the Reds and Diamondbacks, with the Cubs and Padres 6 and 8 back. With 6 series's to go , here's how many each wc contender has with winning teams:

Philly - 4
D.C. - 4
Cincy - 2
Ariz - 3
Chi - 2
SD - 4

The schedule seems to like Cincy and the Cubbies, which could make things pretty interesting!

Power Ranking #2

2009-11-17T18:38:00.001-08:00

Ranked by W-L first, then runs differential.

1. Montreal, 42-18 - 3 7-Game winners with sub-3.20 ERA's; Ayala - .339/26/63
2. Texas, 40-19 - Robinson 19-0f-19 saves; Marrero .326/22/49
3. Tampa Bay, 39-20 - Lorenzo 5-0. 2.78; 9 players with 25+ RBI
4. Philadelphia, 38-21 - 7 pitchers with saves; Garrido - .438/20/73
5. New York Mets, 37-22 - Hernandez + Cedeno 17 wins; Franco 16 HR, 45 RBI
6. Detroit, 36-23 - Graves 11-1, 1.63; Martin .319/10/50
7. New York Yankees, 35-25 - Pickford 5 ER in last 3 GS; Cunningham .388/13/41
8. Wash. DC, 33-26 - Marquez 8-0, 2.87; 3 regulars over .300
9. Boston, 33-27 - Lima 15-of-16 saves; Miro .332.10/43
10. Anaheim, 33-27 - Guapo 13-of-14 saves; Murphy .305/26/65

Power Ranking #1

2009-11-04T09:36:00.000-08:00

Ranked by W-L first, then runs differential.

1. Montreal, 16-6 - 49 HR's and 147 runs lead majors
2. Philadelphia, 15-7 (+54) - good pitching + good hitting = good record
3. Cincinnati, 15-7 (+24) - Carpenter on pace for 110 dingers
4. Tampa Bay, 15-7 (+19) - 5-0 in 1-run's and extra's
5. Boston, 14-8 (+27) - Erik Monroe: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, .367 OPS-against
6. San Francisco, 14-8 (+23) - no 1-game win or loss streaks yet (kinda weird)
7. New York Mets, 14-8 (+15) - they got some real good pitchin' goin' on
8. Anaheim, 13-9 (+31) - lead AL with 136 runs
9. Texas, 13-9 (+22) - lost first 2 series; 11-4 since
10. Detroit, 13-9 (+15) - Graves returning to rookie-year form is good news

Top IFA Signing Bonuses

2009-10-31T18:27:00.000-07:00

The Javier Valdes record signing sparked some curiosity about who's gotten the top bonuses and where they are now. Thanks to geneseo98 for compiling this.

#1 $28.6MM - Javier Valdes, RF (Dominican Republic), Season 9. Signed by Oakland, currently in Low A.

#2 $27.8MM - Vic Gonzalez, 1B (Dominican Republic), Season 7. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in AAA.

#3 $23.0MM - Jolbert Lopez, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 9. Signed by Washington, D.C., currently in AAA.

#4 $22.0MM - Dennys Martin, 3B (Japan), Season 3. Signed by Chicago Cubs; in his 6th ML season, has 3 All-Star appearances and 2 Silver Sluggers.

#5 $21.9MM - Lorenzo Manto, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 6. Signed by Kansas City, reached ML in Season 8 and won AL ROY.

#6 $20.0MM - Alejandro Vazquez, SP (Dominican Republic), Season 1. Signed by Atlanta; currently in 9th ML season, has 2 All-Star apeparances and 1 Gold Glove.

#7 $18.3MM - Manuel Martin, 2B (Mexico), Season 3. Signed by Baltimore, traded to Boston in Season 4, now in 3rd ML season.

#8 $17.5MM - Luis Duran, SP (Dominican Republic), Season 3. Signed by St. Louis, now in 6th ML season.

#9T $17.0MM - Dicky Martin, SP (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Chicago White Sox, currently in High A.

#9T $17.0MM - Willie Jose, 3B (Dominican Republic), Season 1. Signed by Florida, traded to San Diego in Season 2, traded to Portland in Season 5, signed to a FA contract by San Diego in Season 8, traded to Montreal in Season 9. Currently in 7th ML season.

#11 $16.8MM - Ching-Lung Chang, LF (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in 2nd ML season.

#12 $16.5MM - Enrique Cordero, RP (Dominican Republic), Season 4. Signed by Oakland, currently in 2nd ML season.

#13 $15.9MM - Santos Lorenzo, SP (Cuba), Season 6. Signed by Tampa Bay, currently in AAA.

#14 $15.5MM - Max Ferrer, SP (Costa Rica), Season 3. Signed by San Francisco; currently in 4th ML season, has 1 Gold Glove.

#15 $15.3MM - Hector Bennett, 2B (Dominican Republic), Season 5. Signed by Oakland, currently in AAA.

#16 $15.2MM - Sun Wanatabe, SP (Japan), Season 7. Signed by Kansas City, currently in AAA.

#17T $15.0MM - Paul Shin, SP (Japan), Season 8. Signed by Detroit, currently in AAA.

#17T $15.0MM - Damian Chen, SS (Korea), Season 6. Signed by Cleveland, currently in 2nd ML season.

#17T $15.0MM - Juan Miro, LF (Dominican Republic), Season 4. Signed by Boston, currently in 3rd ML season.

AL South Season 9 Preview

2009-10-25T12:43:00.000-07:00

It was a good year for the AL South in Season 8, with Texas taking the crown and Charlotte getting to the division round as a wildcard. Kansas City and Tampa Bay advanced their rebuilding efforts with major international free agent signings, and the Royals' Lorenzo Manto took the AL Rookie of the Year.

OFFENSE

Texas led the league with 993 runs scored last year and brings back largely the same lineup. All-Star and Silver Slugger CF Juan Marrero (.288/45/110) leads the balanced attack (9 players with 20+ HR's), with SS Ismael Lopez (.259/31/106) and C/DH Chris Mullens (.317/39/99) in supporting run-production roles. RF Jason Walls (.354 OBP) and the 1B platoon of Wolf Douglas (.393 OBP) and Brett Ross (.383 OBP) are the primary table-setters. It looks like 2 rookies will make the opening-day roster: Jerry Wilkinson (.252/34/89 at AAA) takes over at 3B for the traded Jerry Kaline, and Chris Grimsley (.280/37/95 at AAA) will get some AB's at DH. There are no holes in this lineup; 1000 runs is possible this year.

Charlotte dropped to 835 runs last year (from 936 in their division-winning Season 7), so they're looking for some punch. The first boost will come from the return of 2-time MVP Earl Jorgenson, who missed most of last year. Early reports say he's swinging the bat as well as ever but not running like he used to. RF Jose Mondesi had his lowest HR total (37) since Season 2, and could be another pick-me-up. And B.C. Javier could easily snap back from a .255 effort. 3B Adam Martin's power is slipping away, but he should still post solid numbers. C Frankie Spahn swings at everything...the good news is it goes a long way when he connects.

Kansas City scored 853 runs last year, good for 4th in the AL. The Royals' offense begins but does not end with super-sophomores Lorenzo Manto (.317/30/109) and Hersh Taylor (.280/47/115). Season 7 ROY Emil Pichardo "slumped" to .289/22/77 last year; a return to his rookie form would give KC a deadly trio of 3 of the league's best young hitters. They're counting on 2 more rookies for big contributions: CF Wilt Benes has a razor-sharp batting eye and handles RHP - the jury's out on how he'll do with lefties; C Harry James looks like a nice hitter...the question is where he'll play. The word around Spring Training is he'll takeover as the full-time DH early on.

Tampa Bay was dead last in runs last season but will turn over two-thirds of the lineup. Joseph Ishii and Izzy Jones (obtained for prospects), move in at CF and 3B. RF Cristobal Marquez signed a rich FA deal. They've already promoted SS Mariano Mateo and 1B Yonder Manto and handed them starting jobs; we can expect to see Season 7 mega-IFA Vic Gonzalez and LF/RF Geraldo Roque by the 20-game mark. This won't be one of the top offenses in the league...it may not even reach the top half...but it will be much improved.

PITCHING

Texas posted the AL's 3rd-best ERA last year (4.25) but looks to improve. The rotation stays intact, with headliner Sherry Pierre poised for a Cy Young run one of these years (yes, even in Ameriquest Field). The long relief corps is entirely rebuilt with rookies Branch Crosby and Jose Pizzaro, plus FA Ajax Patel. Patrick Michaels comes over from the Yankees as the main setup man to Gene Robinson, who established himself as a reliable closer last season. There are a few question marks in the pen...rumors have the Rangers shopping around for another setup man.

Charlotte's pitching was right behind Texas' last year at 4.26. Warren Justice and Hick Hernandez lead the workmanlike rotation; 2nd-year man Chipper O'Conner got 10 starts last season and could join the rotation full-time. Eugene O'Neill headed the closer committee last year with a fine 11-save, 1.89 ERA effort. With team ERA's of 4.24 and 4.26 the last 2 seasons and virtually same personnel, this group should be very predictable; which means they'll in all likelihood throw lights out or suck.

Kansas City posted a 5.17 ERA last year and needs some arms to go with all those bats. Damaso Palacios seems most likely to step up - he had a nice sophomore season (15-12, 3.72) but control problems and/or gopher balls have limited his effectiveness since. In the pen, Raymond Karsay posted a 3.24 ERA in 75 innings, but with a career mark of 4.88, I wouldn't count on a repeat. The good news resides in AAA on the arms of Armando Taveras (Season 7 #2 overall) and Sun Wanatabe (big-ticket Season 7 IFA) - both could use more development but could get the call if KC's bats put them in the race.

Tampa Bay put up a pretty good 4.25 ERA last year (4th), largely due to lefty SP's Stuart Wilson (13-11.3.69) and Blaine Lowry (11-13, 4.03), plus some good efforts by anonymous guys. There will be less anonymity this year: much-ballyhooed SP prospect Santos Lorenzo will debut around game 20, as will his IFA counterpart Javy Johnson. FA Karim Wallace was signed to a 5-year deal to steady the pen. The Rays also recently traded for promising-but-underachieving RP Houston Webb; he's put up sparkling numbers in Spring Training and could earn a setup role.

PREDICTIONS

1. Texas 104-58
2. Charlotte 92-70
3. Kansas City 85-77
4. Tampa Bay 82-80

ROY Watch: Tampa Bay's Santos Lorenzo and Vic Gonazalez; KC's Harry James
MVP Watch: Texas' CF Juan Marrero, Charlotte's 2B Earl Jorgenson, KC's Lorenzo Manto and Hersh Taylor
Cy Young Watch: Texas' Sherry Pierre

Twins Get Seanz' Replacement

2009-10-19T10:59:00.000-07:00

In the last A/B signing before Spring Training, Minnesota got its successor to the ballyhooed Jolbert Saenz, the well-traveled Dickie Hodges (2 years, $4.9MM). Hodges has had stints in Cincinnati (2), Kansas City and Baltimore during his 8-year Kinsella career, racking up a .266 career BA with 106 HR's. He also won a Gold Glove for his work with the Reds in Season 6 (which is, interestingly, 1 more Player Award than his predecessor won).

Hodges is a mild plus offensively for a C, at least against lefties. He's a capable, if not superlative pitch-caller and has a better-than adequate throwing arm. His most remarkable trait, though, is his iron-man durability - he's very capable of catching all 162 games without tiring (a feat he has pulled off 3 times). For the price, the Twins have made a great deal. Grade: A

Cubbies sign Saenz For Record (we think) Bucks

2009-10-18T19:06:00.000-07:00

With free agency winding down, the Chicago Cubs prevailed in the frenzied bidding for Jolbert Saenz and signed the former Twins backstop to a 5-year, $85MM deal.

Saenz had been in the Twins organization for all 8 Kinsella seasons, coming to the majors in Season 3 and hitting .301 with 103 HR's over 6 seasons. He also set career highs with a .307 average, 24 HR's and 80 RBI last year.

Never the object of major publicity or attention during his years in the northland, Saenz found a bulls-eye materializing on his chest when Expos GM huskypride attempted to scare everyone off a targeted player (implying a max bid), and speculation centered on Saenz. The target's even brighter now that the ultimate judgement of Saenz and his contract depend on a Cubs World Series win sometime in the next 5 years.

Very good player, maybe the best in this free-agent class, but a risky contract. Grade A if the Cubs win a Series during the contract, Grade F if they don't.

In other late free-agency news:

Phillies: Alexander Myers, LF - 2 years, $8.2MM (mutual option). Lifetime .315 hitter can still get on base, but his days of 20+ HR's are probably over. Philly's collecting quite a surplus of LF's, making us think a trade for something they couldn't find in FA (3B?) is afoot. Grade: A

Astros: Derrick Russ, 3B - 5 years, $35MM. Steady hot cornerman compiled a .276 BA and 147 HR's, plus a Silver Slugger (Season 3) and an All-Star Game (Season 8) in his 7 years with the Expos. 5-year contracts for 31 year-old hitters always come with ratings decline concerns, particularly in the power and durability departments, where Russ has already seen a little erosion. All in all, though, solid player for a a decent price. Grade: B

Padres: Kerry Dispenza, RP - 2 years, $5.1MM ($4.5MM bonused this year). Love this signing for a couple of reasons. First, he's really a good fit for San Diego - Dispenza's the poster boy for ballpark effects (5+ ERA with Texas, 2.87 with Portland last year). He has the kind of OK-to-pretty good ratings that can play well in Petco. Second, the big bonus and minimum salary could make him very attractive trade bait come deadline-time, either this year or next. Grade: Best oddball, quirky, savvy signing of the year

Tigers: William Ryan, 3B - 3 years, $11.3MM. Cracked 43 dingers and made the All-Star Team for Cincy last year, but Great American is +2, +2 for HR's and Comerica is -2, -2. It's a big difference and will almost certainly suppress his power numbers. He's a good defender at 3B, and it's a small price for a full-player...just be ready for disappointing production. Grade: C+

Rays Enter FA Fray

2009-10-17T13:19:00.000-07:00

Longtime doormat Tampa Bay entered the free-agent wars today, signing Type A FA's Cristobal Marquez (RF) and Karim Wallace (RP). Marquez is a career .259 hitter with 166 HR's over 6 seasons for the Giants. He's one of this year's youngest free agents at 28, having opted out after 3 arbitration years with the Giants. Wallace has seen both closer and setup duty over 8 seasons with the Red Sox, Angels and Cubs, compiling a 3.91 ERA. The Rays are getting 2 quality players...just not cheaply. Grade(s): B

The signings fueled speculation among Ray-watchers that the club would mount an all-out effort to contend this season, promoting prospects wholesale and signing more free agents. GM blanch13 quieted the buzz at least momentarily by ruling out more free agent signings: "We expended our FA budget on Marquez and Wallace, and we're very happy with those signings. We bid early on (former MIN C Jolbert) Saenz, but the bidding quickly got into the 'this is the one guy that puts us over' range, and that's not our situation. We need help in lots of places."

Tigers Nab Martin

2009-10-17T06:46:00.000-07:00

The Detroit Tigers took a big step toward getting back into the AL North pennant fight today, signing FA 1B Pascual Martin to a 3-year, $24MM contract.

The Tigers took the North in Seasons 6 and 7 (plus the Season 7 World Series), but struggled to 3rd at 73-89 last year, largely due to a 126-run drop in offense. Martin set the new single-season batting average record last year (.389) - his high-contact style fits with the spacious dimensions at Comerica.

Tigers owner jdrake confirmed he had gone as far on the Martin bidding as he could, and was "surprised" to get him for 6.3/9/9 + a team option.

Martin is on of the top hitters in the league and a perfect fit for Detroit's park. Only the Pickford signing exceeds this one so far. Grade: A

Indians, Braves, Red Sox Come Out Swinging in FA

2009-10-16T09:43:00.000-07:00

(Please don't take my grades too seriously...just the opinions of 1 guy who hasn't figured this game out yet)

Cleveland, Atlanta and Boston dominated the early A/B FA signings, inking 7 of the first 11 contracts.

Indians:
Del Wilhelm - LF - 4 years, $30MM. Some teams probably stayed away because of his declining power ratings, but the Tribe was more persuaded by his 8 consecutive .300 seasons and still-superb durability. Even at 33, one of the top FA's in this class...certainly among the top 5 hitters available. Some concern about low makeup leading to plummeting ratings in the out years of the contract (perhaps a mutual option on the last year would have been prudent), but a solid signing nonetheless. Grade: B

Albert Gonzalez - 2B/LF - 2 years, $11.6MM. Should be good for .260 with 20-25 HR's - a big offensive boost if he plays 2B (this year and next are pretty short on good 2B's), but that's not altogether clear. He's adequate at best defensively at 2B, and the Wahoos are building up an oversupply of 2B/LF types. Kudos for getting this guy on only a 2-year deal. Grade: B+

Jimmie Ruiz - C - 3 years, $7.5MM. "Grandpa" Ruiz can still handle a pitching staff, although he's no longer much of a threat on offense. This signing gets my first raspberry on 2 counts: first, he's not really any better than the 2 (much cheaper) guys they already have; and second, it's a 3-year contract for a guy who's ratings are already in free-fall. At least the Tribe can punt on the last year by declining the option.
Grade: Raspberry

Braves:
Bobby Dawkins - LF - 4 years, $20MM. Unheralded vet coming off career highs in HR's and RBI (in the hitter's graveyard of Portland, at that). His power's starting to ebb a little, but his high makeup, combined with Atlanta's nearly-expert training staff, should ward off any significant ratings declines. Nice price for a fulltime player. Grade: A-

Zach Millwood - SP - 2 years, $10.4MM. Not an ace, but a very productive back-of-the-rotation SP. Features a decent sinker and a good cut fastball...way tougher on lefties than most RHP. The thing to watch here is walks - he's been up around 1 every other inning some seasons. Could start to suffer some ratings declines this year or next, but shouldn't be a big problem. Nice short-term signing. Grade: A-

Red Sox
Victor Lima - SP/RP - 2 years, $16MM (mutual option). He's been a starter (13-6, 2.56 for FLA in Season 4), he's been a closer (92 saves for the Giants in Seasons 6-7), he's probably been everything in between. Still a top pitcher, the only question is whether the Sox can keep him glued together for another season or 2. 92 makeup and the best jacuzzis money can buy ($20MM training budget) say "yes". Grade: A

Richard Ishii - 3B - 2years, $17MM (mutual option). Signed to settle last year's 3B-by-committee approach (we think...the Mac Smith signing casts some doubt), although he's certainly a + hitter at SS (multiple Silver Sluggers). Not a cheap price, but given the all-round shortage of infielders in free agency, a good signing. Grade: B

Others:
Yankees: Scot Pickford - SP - 5 years, $30MM. Evil Empire goes for the rehab special. Here's the deal: yeah, he took a big hit, but his ratings are still very good - the BEST of any SP in free agency. If he didn't have that injury last year, and came into FA with the ratings he has - $50MM + contract. Grade: Grand Larceny A+ Steal Of Free Agency

Expos: Diego Ibarra - SP - 4 years, $48MM. Big-innings ironman benefited from the spacious OF in Seattle, but that fall-off-the-table sinker will help out in the new cozy digs. Vulnerable to lefties, but that's a minor critique. It may be the market, but that's a pretty big price tag for this guy. Grade: B-

Reds: Ernest Becker - SP - 2 years, $11.6MM. Double-digit wins for 8 straight seasons - pretty impressive. Ratings solid but unspectacular across the board. Biggest concern is is age, but high makeup and training budget should render that concern moot. Grade: B+

Brewers: Craig Evans - RP - 2 years, $10MM. Solid reliever can be a closer or 100-inning setup man. Might see his numbers tick up a bit with the ballpark change, but should still be very good. One question: why sign a 31 year-old Type A for only 2 years? Grade: B

NL Wildcard Prognostications

2009-09-23T08:39:00.000-07:00

6. New York Mets (91-71) at 3. Montreal Expos (95-67)

This series features a pair of teams that were forced to scrape and claw until the regular season’s final day to secure playoff holds. Montreal lost out on the second seed by a game, but outlasted Cincinnati to claim a fifth consecutive NL North crown. The Mets were forced to turn to uber-ace Walt Hernandez on the final day of the regular season just to get into the playoffs, winning a season-ending series with the Nats and stealing the final wildcard spot by a single game.

The Mets feature baseball’s third best pitching staff and posted a team ERA of 3.55 in the regular season. New York will need its stable of young starters to shine if it hopes to advance against a Montreal offense that finished the year with 867 runs scored, the top producing offense in the National League.

The Expos had little trouble with New York’s pitching in the regular season, winning seven of the 10 regular season tilts between the clubs. With a respectable pitching staff and high-powered offense I see little trouble ahead for the Expos, who should survive to take on Philadelphia in the divisional round.

Prediction: Montreal handles the Mets, 3-0

5. Cincinnati Reds (94-68) at 4. San Francisco Giants (84-78)

Exceeding all expectations, the Reds were one of the National League’s top teams this season, vying for the NL North title until the final weekend of the season. Losing out to Montreal may have been a blessing in disguise as Cincinnati travels to San Francisco for its wildcard matchup. The Giants cruised through the first half of the season but were just 33-38 after the All-Star break and had to fend off the hard charging Diamondbacks at season’s end.

This will be a series of polar-opposites, as the Reds led the NL with 313 homeruns and finished third with 846 runs scored and will rely heavily on the bat of MVP candidate Douglas Carpenter (.304, 61 HR, 137 RBI); while San Fran counters with stellar pitching highlighted by Cy Young hopeful Graham Ardoin (16-5, 2.57 ERA). Ardoin and the Giants posted the third-best team ERA in the NL this season, at 3.80.

Prediction: Cincinnati’s offense is too much for the G-men, 3-1

AL Wildcard Prognostications

2009-09-23T08:10:00.000-07:00

6. Anaheim Angels (86-76) at 3. Oakland Athletics (86-76)

The good news? Despite finishing the season on a four-game slide the A’s won a tiebreak to claim the American League West. The bad news? Oakland faces divisional foe Anaheim in a tricky first round matchup.
While the Athletics won the season series six games to four, the Halos rebounded from a season-opening four game sweep in Oakland winning the final two series.

The Angels finished the regular season ranked fourth in the AL with a .275 team average and scored 843 runs, fifth in the junior circuit; while the Athletics are buoyed by a solid pitching staff that posted a 3.90 team ERA, second only to the Yankees in the AL.

Anaheim has to be considered the favorite in this series as the Angels have been a playoff team in each of the last eight seasons, including World Champions two years ago. Oakland, making its second playoff appearance in the last three years, will need dominant pitching as its lineup won’t be able to keep pace with the Halos in a slugfest.

Prediction: Angels take the series, 3-1

5. Charlotte Knights (90-72) at 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)

The Knights cruised to the first wildcard after losing the division race to the juggernaut Rangers in the season’s first month and actually finished with the American League’s third best record. Toronto took advantage of a weak AL North to claim the franchise’s first-ever division title, finishing two games above .500 in the regular season.

With offenses that are nearly identical, Charlotte holds a slight pitching edge and an excellent bullpen. If Toronto sluggers J.J. Perez and Carlos Cruz can get to Charlotte’s starters early, the Blue Jays should win this series.

Prediction: Toronto wins 3-2

Correction

2009-09-22T17:36:00.000-07:00

I previously reported that Montreal had the first tiebreaker over Philly in the event of a tie...WRONG. Philly took the season series, so they win the tie and get the #2 seed.

Mets-Nationals Play-In Highlights Game 162

2009-09-22T10:12:00.000-07:00

Game 162 still holds some intrigue for at least 2 teams in Kinsella this year, as the Mets and Nationals square off this afternoon to see who gets the last NL wildcard spot.

Mets GM dherz has already signaled his intent to start ace Walt Hernandez on 3 days' rest; D.C. skipper ea is expected to counter with lefty D.T. Porzio, although the N.Y. lineup's preference for southpaws may lead him to go with Tom Durham on short rest.

In any event, it's a sold-out Nationals Park to see the last remaining playoff fight later today.

The AL Playoff pairings are set:

#4 Toronto and #5 Charlotte go at it in the one Division Play-In Series, with the winner drawing the #1 seed Yankees.

The other Division Play-In features division rivals #3 Oakland and #6 Anaheim - the winner gets #2 Texas.

The NL Playoff Pairings have a few more possibilities remaining:

The #4-#5 and #1 bracket is set: Atlanta has secured the #1 seed and awaits the winner of the #4 San Francisco - #5 Cincinnati Division Round.

Montreal and Philadelphia are TIED for the #2 seed. The Expos take it with a win, as they have a big lead in the first tiebreaker (division record). The Expos host the Brewers and the Phils are at Pittsburgh to decide the #2 and #3 seeds. Whoever comes out on top there gets a first-round bye; the loser takes the #3 seed and faces the winner of the NY-D.C. showdown (#6 seed) in the other Division Round.

Handicapping the AL Stretch Drive

2009-09-19T14:10:00.000-07:00

The AL's pretty tame compared to the NL's assorted permutations, but there are still a few variations possible. New York and Texas are set, and Charlotte has all but nailed down the first wildcard, but the North and West still hold at least a little intrigue.

North
The Jays are 5 up with 10 to play and no winning teams left on the schedule. Minnesota has the toughest schedule of the 3 contenders with a set against Oakland, but they do have a series with Toronto. They're 4-3 against the Jays this year need a sweep there to maintain any hope for a miracle. Detroit doesn't have any winning teams left, either, but at 6 back just about has to win out. Prediction: Toronto hangs in.

West
A veritable NL-like (this year) race, made more interesting by the certainty that the runnerup will get the #2 wildcard. Oakland has a cushy schedule with only Portland left with a +.500 record. Anaheim's is even easier, with the White Sox coming up. Portland has to be the sentimental choice after the Scot Pickford shoulder explosion (8 starts after the Beavers gave a couple of prospects for him on a 1-year rental), but the schedule does not favor them: Texas, Anaheim and Oakland coming up. Prediction: Crystal ball says Anaheim nips the A's. Oakland in as the second wildcard.

Handicapping the NL Stretch Drive

2009-09-18T07:13:00.000-07:00

We have great races everywhere in the NL, with 10 teams still in contention. Here's the breakdown (including my guaranteed-wrong fearless predictions):

North
Cincy and Montreal have the easiest schedules of all 10 contenders; the Cubbies have one of the toughest, including 6 with the Reds and Expos. Cincy's been getting away with shaky pitching all year - I'm predicting this bites 'em down the stretch. Montreal wins it, Cincy 2nd, Cubbies 3rd.

East
The Phils have opened up a 3-game lead, but the Mets' tough pitching and D will keep them in it. Schedule favors Philly and NY slightly over D.C. I'm going out on a limb and predicting a Mets surge to win it on the last day. Phils and Nationals battling for wildcard.

South
Now that Atlanta has opened a 7 game lead, the question is whether The Cards can stay in the wildcard race.

West
This one will come down to the Giants-Diamondbacks head-to-head season-ending series. Schedule favors San Fran a little (Brewers, Expos and Dodgers - Snakes have Pirates, Phillies and Padres), but I'm predicting Arizona pulls it out.

Wildcard
The North teams have the edge at the moment, but Chicago's schedule just looks too tough. Schedule's a Cardinal-killer, too. I like the Reds for the first wildcard - that leaves Philly and D.C. battling for the last spot. They have a head-to-head coming up...bold prediction: Somebody out of 1o teams has to pull a collapse...it's a replay of '64. D.C. sweeps Phil in that series and picks off the last playoff spot.

Season 8 NL Forecast

2009-08-12T14:41:00.000-07:00

My success for NL forecasts has not been as successful as for the AL, but with 3 of the 6 playoff teams accurately projected, it's still decent. Here is what the numbers gave me:

NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (1): Strength - SP
2. Montreal Expos: Strength - RP
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Weakness - Hit
4. Cincinnati Reds: Weakness - SP, RP

After this result, either my entire ranking system is crap, or the Reds currently have the world's best record through the use of smoke and mirrors. The Cubs once again look great on paper and then do not fail to dissappoint on the field. The Expos look to be in the wildcard hunt, but should fall short.

NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3): Strength - Hit, RP
2. New York Mets (5): Strength - SP, RP
3. Washington DC Nationals (6): Strength - RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Weakness - RP

The East looks like the powerhouse division of the National League, with the aging Phillies, who are having another slow start this season, just barely edging out the young Mets. The Nats look to defend their NL championship via the wildcard this season. The Pirates look improved, but still have a long ways to go to get out of the cellar of this stacked division.

NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (2): Strength - Hit, SP; Weakness - RP
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Houston Astros: Weakness - SP
4. Florida Marlins: Weakness - Hit

To this point, the Cards have been the southern Cubs, with an impressive looking squad that comes up short. The Braves continue to ride on Dee Dee's back and will fight with the Cards deep into the season. The Astros look improved, but haven't quite put enough pieces together yet to compete. The Marlins have quite possibly the most anemic offense yet to be assembled in this world.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (4): Strength - Hit, RP
2. San Diego Padres: Strength - Hit; Weakness - SP
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Strength - SP; Weakness - Hit
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: Weakness - Hit, SP, RP

By the end of this season, the Giants should coast to another division title as none of their division competitors compare to their talent. The Padres and Diamondbacks could remain in striking distance of the wildcard late into the season, while the Dodgers are in the middle of a major overhaul.

Season 8 AL Forecast

2009-08-10T11:49:00.000-07:00

Yes, I know we are 25% underway with the season, but I have calculated the numbers just as I have in previous seasons. After correctly predicting 5 of the 6 AL playoff teams last season, I hope you still find my "forecast" to be an interesting read. Besides predicted finish and playoff seed, I also show the Top 4 and Bottom 4 teams in three categories (Hit, SP, RP).

AL North
1. Minnesota Twins (4) - Strength: RP
2. Detroit Tigers - Strength: SP, RP
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP

In what was actually a very surprising result to me considering the player movement that has occurred over the past two seasons with the top 3 teams, the Twins narrowly edged out the defending champion Tigers and the near-miss wildcard Blue Jays.

AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Hit, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians - Strength: SP
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Hit

On paper, the Yankees again appear to be the dominant team in this division, though it looks as though the Indians are starting to close the gap as their predicted finish is just barely out of the wildcard as the 7th best in the AL.

AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Hit, SP
2. Charlotte Knights (6) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Hit, SP, RP

The Rangers should regain the division title this season with the Knights hanging close and making another playoff appearance. The Royals, while once again 3rd, actually look like one of the most improved teams in the AL, especially at the plate where they just missed making the Top 4.

AL West
1. Anaheim Angels (3)
2. Oakland Athletics (5) - Strength: Hit, RP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Hit, Weakness: SP, RP
4. Seattle Mariners - Weakness: Hit, RP

The Angels have the top team with a #5 ranking in all three categories, while Oakland and Portland look to be in the playoff hunt.

Poll Results: Most Shocking

2009-05-26T09:37:00.000-07:00

With 26 votes cast, the results are as follows:
1. Philadelphia Phillies 13-15: 13 votes
2 - Tie. Cincinnati Reds 7-20; Minnesota Twins 6-21: 5 votes each
4. Danny Alexander only 3 HR, .669 OPS: 3 votes

The big "winner" in this vote was the fall to mediocrity of the league's winningest franchise.

Poll Results: Who would you draft #1 in an open draft?

2009-05-04T15:35:00.000-07:00

With 19 votes cast, the results were as follows:
Santos Lorenzo, SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 5
Dee Dee Hutton, 1B, Atlanta Braves - 3
Walt Hernandez, SP, New York Mets - 3
Kevin Marte, 1B, Montreal Expos - 2
Damian Chen, CF, Detroit Tigers - 2
Juan Marerro, CF, Texas Rangers - 2
Travis Murphy, 1B, Anaheim Angels - 1
Earl Jorgensen, 2B, Charlotte Knights - 1

The votes were a bit more widespread than I thought they should be, which I am guessing is attributed in some part to bias on the part of the GMs for the teams these guys play for. The winner is a future ace and was last season's big money International free agent. He probably won't see the bigs for a couple more seasons, but when he does, he is going to make an impression.

Season 7 NL Forecast

2009-04-21T15:27:00.000-07:00

Here are my forecasts for the division standings for the National League for Season 7. I've added additional info for strengths or weaknesses if the team is in top or bottom 25% of the league for one of my three evaluation categories: Offense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching. Unlike the AL, the offseason movement appears to have shaken up the NL playoff picture just a bit with the NL East looking like the power division and the NL South starting to rise from the ashes. The one thing I am certain about is that the NL picture seems alot muddier than the AL with many more teams with playoff potential. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)

NL North
1. Chicago Cubs (2) - Strength: SP
2. Montreal Expos
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
Can the Cubs live up to their potential this season or will they continue to disappoint? The defending NL champions in Montreal will definitely feel the loss of Springer as Marte must now carry the team himself. The Brewers will continue to stockpile talent in the minors while their major league team flounders.

NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Washington DC Nationals (5) - Strength: RP
3. New York Mets (6) - Strength: SP, RP
4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Weakness: Off, RP
The Phillies look like the team to beat once again as they excel in all areas. The Nats are still strong competitors with a dominant bullpen. The Mets have the league's best pitching staff and this season their mediocre offense should get them to their first postseason. The Pirates still have a few top performers but lack of depth remains their downfall.

NL South
1. St. Louis Cardinals (4) - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves - Weakness: SP
4. Houston Astros - Weakness: SP
The NL South has historically been the weakest division in Kinsella, but this offseason, a strong effort was made to change that. The Cards are once again my top rated team, but after last season, I am not a believer in seeing it translate to superior on-field performance. The Marlins made some solid additions to compete for the division or wild card. The Braves are a puzzle to me as their SP looks like one of the worst, yet last season was one of the better performing staffs. The players they did bring in should help them get over .500 this season, but they should be watching the playoffs on tv. The Astros made some improvements which should take them away from the #1 pick competition and closer to the middle of the road.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (3) - Strength: Off, RP
2. San Diego Padres - Strength: Off
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Strength: SP; Weakness: Off
4. Los Angeles Dodgers - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Giants will likely run away with the West again this season as their offense and pitching remain strong. The Padres made the biggest signing in the NL with the addition of Bernard Springer, who single-handedly raises their offense from middle of the pack to top tier and puts them in the wild card hunt. The D'backs will likely slip out of the playoffs this season as their offense just isn't going to provide enough run support for their top notch pitching. The Dodgers will be near the bottom of the league with weaknesses across the board.

Wild Card
1. Washington DC Nationals (5)
2. New York Mets (6)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Florida Marlins
5. Montreal Expos
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Cincinnati Reds
8. Atlanta Braves

Season 7 AL Forecast

2009-04-20T12:03:00.000-07:00

Here are my forecasts for the division standings for the American League for Season 7. I've added additional info for strengths or weaknesses if the team is in top or bottom 25% of the league for one of my three evaluation categories: Offense, Starting Pitching, and Relief Pitching.
Despite some major movement in the preseason, I foresee an identical playoff line-up as last season. (Playoff Seed in parenthesis)

AL North
1. Detroit Tigers (4) - Strength: RP
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
This division should be closer this season as the Jays and Twins are very close in talent with the Tigers. Meanwhile, the White Sox remain a championship caliber AAA ball club.

AL East
1. New York Yankees (1) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Yankees will once again dominate this division. The Indians have the talent to be in the wild card hunt late in the season, while the Red Sox hopes will likely have faded by the All-Star break. The Orioles only competition this season will be for a top draft pick.

AL South
1. Texas Rangers (2) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Charlotte Knights (5) - Strength: RP
3. Kansas City Royals - Weakness: Off, SP
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Weakness: Off, SP, RP
The Rangers are once again the class of the division with great talent in all areas. The steady Knights are close behind also with a very well-rounded team. The Royals and Rays are still in major rebuilding mode with no hope for this season.

AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (3) - Strength: Off, SP, RP
2. Anaheim Angels (6) - Strength: SP
3. Portland Beavers - Strength: Off; Weakness: RP
4. Seattle Mariners
The deepest AL division is led by the young and talented A's who excel at all facets of the game. The defending world champ Angels will get carried into the playoffs by their good starters and no real weaknesses. The Beavers offense looks spectacular but unfortunately they seem to once again be the near miss team thanks to their pitching issues, especially in the bullpen. The Mariners have some talented players but lack the depth to contend.

AL Wildcard Standings
1. Charlotte Knights (5)
2. Anaheim Angels (6)
3. Portland Beavers
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6. Minnesota Twins

The Quest for 500 - Home Run Projections

2009-04-17T14:08:00.000-07:00

Bribar's mention of a poll concerning our leading home run hitters and who would be the first to reach 500 got me curious about how they projected using the Bill James calculator (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments). That grew to me figuring out the projections for every home run hitter in the world with at least 3 full ML seasons. Here are the results for every player projected to hit 400 or more homeruns with their % probability of reaching 500. (Sorry about the formatting. If anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet to a blog, please let me know.)

Name Team Age Current Projection % Chance 500
Jose Mondesi CHA 28 281 633 97.0
Travis Murphy LAA 25 187 621 88.5
Dee Dee Hutton ATL 26 172 608 82.9
Bartolo Lopez CIN 27 182 570 71.9
Francisco Guillen NY1 26 201 566 72.2
Dee Bolling STL 32 306 563 82.3
Tony Masao CH1 24 166 558 67.2
Al Perez KC 27 196 556 68.4
Bernard Springer SD 28 253 540 66.2
Frank Jorgensen PHI 31 265 530 62.7
Kevin Marte MON 28 183 530 59.3
Orber Julio PIT 31 295 523 61.3
Doug Stewart FLA 23 129 492 47.7
Valerio Guillen NY1 29 218 472 39.9
Pedro Garrido PHI 29 211 471 40.0
Carter Jeffries PHI 32 253 452 30.6
Danny Alexander TOR 31 230 452 32.2
Chad Seabol STL 29 235 451 31.4
Todd Winchester CH2 27 188 448 33.3
Clyde Redmond PIT 27 161 440 32.2
Jose Roque FLA 27 177 435 29.7
Eric Roosevelt ATL 27 152 435 31.2
Benji Palmer NY2 31 229 431 24.4
Sam Kubinski SF 27 148 429 29.9
Harry Tejada CIN 30 214 428 24.8
Darryl Whitaker LAA 29 195 426 25.7
Earl Jorgensen CHA 27 177 425 26.6
Dan Guerrero ATL 32 255 424 19.0
Guy Cunningham NY1 26 154 424 28.5
Mule Benoit PIT 27 135 423 28.8
Miguel Pena MON 26 132 419 27.9
Leon Abbott LA 33 238 417 18.1
Tripp Devereaux CLE 28 171 416 24.5
Del Wilhelm PHI 31 232 414 18.1
Damian Chen DET 26 123 414 27.1
Eric Brumfield DET 28 141 409 24.7

Hall of Fame Potential - World Veterans

2009-04-06T15:12:00.000-07:00

For this story, I am focusing on top performing players who at world creation had at least 5 invisible years of service and who will not be likely to build up their career statistics to the point at which their hall status would be more easily determined. From a scale of 0-100%, I will gauge their chances of making our Hall of Fame.

Catchers:
Robinson Jerzembeck – CHI-Sox/AZ/TX (35 yrs old, 10 invisible seasons) .317 BA, .406 OBP, .494 SLG, 740 Hits, 99 HR, 3 All-Star games: We just didn’t get a chance to see enough of him for him to have any shot at the Hall. 0%

Ralph Levine – WAS/BAL/SD (33, 5) .279, .409, .548, 833 Hits, 217 HR, 2-time MVP candidate: His hitting skills were based too strongly off his power which has fallen too much for him to be a factor any more. If his prior seasons were anything like his peak seasons, he might have had a shot, but he dropped off too soon to garner votes. 0%

First Base:
Arthur Boggs ANA/BAL (35, 8) .318, .406, .547, 1102 Hits, 198 HR, 3 All-Stars, 4 Silver Sluggers: He is now in steep decline in skills may have just had his final productive season. Those 8 missing seasons are going to cost him, as he probably would be over 2600 hits and close to 500 home runs right now. 5%

Scott Rivers – PHI/LA/OAK (34, 5) .300, .372, .528, 1040 Hits, 209 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: He had a major career revival this season in Oakland. With only 5 missing seasons, he would be nowhere close to the career stats necessary for a non-defensive position. 0%

Second Base:
Jose Pichardo – TB/PHI (35, 9) .314, .380, .549, 1164 Hits, 215 DB, 197 HR, 204 SB, 4 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Gold Glove: During his prime, which we missed seeing, he would have been considered one of the best all around players in the game, hitting for power and average, running the bases, and playing a decent centerfield. With his missing seasons, he would be at or close to 3000 hits, 500 Hrs, and 600 SB. Since he is still capable of good production for a couple more seasons, he has a fair shot. 40%

Alexander Myers – TOR/NYY (33, 5) .322, .406, .498, 1267 Hits, 222 DB, 145 HR, 158 SB, 4 All-Stars, 3 Silver Sluggers: Arguably the best all-around second baseman in the game over the course of his career. Barring injury, has a decent shot at 2000 real hits, making 3000 a likely occurrence for his total career. 50%

Third Base:
Jake Clapp – MIL/PHI/SF (34, 6) .308, .371, .612, 1112 Hits, 269 HR, 185 SB, 5 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers, 3 MVPs: When this world began, he was the best all around player, as he likely would have been in his previous 6 seasons. I don’t think it really matters what he does going forward as his first few seasons were that good. 100%

Adam Martin – CHA (33, 6) .278, .344, .569, 894 Hits, 250 HR, 3 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers: He has been a premier slugger but has been in decline the last couple seasons. He would have been a strong possibility for 500 home runs with the 6 extra seasons, but unfortunately homers are his only impressive offensive contribution. His chances seem slim at best. 10%

Shortstop:
Willie Edmonds – CIN (34, 8) .257, .320, .479, 848 Hits, 163 HR, 157 SB, 2 All-Stars, 2 Silver Sluggers, 4 Gold Gloves: He is a rare talent with his ability to hit about 30 homers, steal about 30 bases, and win gold gloves at shortstop. With his skills still first rate at 34, he could have had 400 homers, 400 SB, and 10 gold gloves at this point in his career, but unfortunately 8 years is a lot to miss. 25%

Leftfield:
Shep McNeil – TEX/MIL/PIT/CLE (37, 7) .305, .373, .505, 1057 Hits, 162 HR, 1 All-Star: We missed out on his prime, during which he would have been a perennial All-Star with his ability to hit for power and average. Without much left in the tank, his career is going to be just too short. 0%

Sammy Rincon – TOR/KC (35, 7) .274, .344, .531, 874 Hits, 215 HR, 1 All-Star, 1 Gold Glove: Like Adam Martin, he was an impressive power hitter, but unfortunately also like Martin, his skills are on the decline and home runs are all he did that impressed. 0%

Hayes Swann – BAL/FLA/NYY/WAS (33, 5) .321, .420, .584, 1096 Hits, 232 HR, 3 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger: It’s likely that his previous contract and his team hopping have overshadowed his accomplishments at this point. Regardless of what you think of him, he has been one of the most potent offensive forces around. With the skills to play a few more seasons, he will likely have an impressive resume before he’s done. 50%

Del Wilhelm – PHI (30,5) .311, .400, .610, 1115 Hits, 259 DB, 232 HR, 203 SB, 4 All-Stars, 5 Silver Sluggers: He has been the quiet leader of the current Philly dynasty going unnoticed mostly due to the fact that he has been surrounded by such good teammates. At only 30, his career numbers are going to be impressive despite the lost seasons. 90%

Centerfield:
Robert Jefferson – MIL/NYY (33,5) .283, .361, .394, 1079 Hits, 75 HR, 251 SB, 3 All-Stars, 1 Gold Glove: He’s been a great centerfielder and a good hitter, but just not special enough in either for Hall consideration. 0%

DaRond Wagner – ANA (31,5) .278, .354, .411, 975 Hits, 83 HR, 212 SB, 3 All-Stars, 3 Gold Gloves: He’s impressed a little more with the glove, but like Jefferson is not Hall material. 0%

Rightfield:
Sandy Valentin – KC (38, 12) .299, .375, .501, 923 Hits, 149 HR, 3 All-Stars: In Season 1 at age 33, he had a great season and if that was the norm throughout his prime he would have been a surefire hall of famer. With his 12 missing seasons, he might have had 3000 hits with around 600 homers, but we will never know for sure. 12 seasons is just too much. 0%

Starting Pitchers (My min requirements were 1000 IP and ERA under 4.00):
Alex Kubinski – SEA/FLA/LA (38,13) 1318 IP, 989 K, .237 OAV, 1.20 WHIP, 3.47 ERA, 77-64, 1 All-Star: He was likely one of the better pitchers during those 13 missing seasons, but its just too much time lost to judge. 0%

Freddie Alston – LA/SEA (38, 7) 1142 IP, 893 K, .239 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 3.38 ERA, 77-48, 3 All-Stars: He’s been very effective, though has received some help from his home parks. With his skills rapidly eroding now, his ML career could be over and he just hasn’t done enough. 0%

Tris Breen – PIT/ATL (37, 8) 1194 IP, 954 K, .265 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.57 ERA, 78-62: Another very good pitcher with a known career that will be far too short. 0%

Jeff Bollea – BOS/BAL/TEX (37, 7) 1262 IP, 1124 K, .234 OAV, 1.23 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 87-34, 5 All-Stars: He has had a short but superb career. Since he is still one of the league’s better starters, he has a little more time but he needs to be pretty special to have a shot. 20%

Homer Flanagan – SF/TEX/FLA (36,6) 1028 IP, 853 K, .240 OAV, 1.13 WHIP, 3.30 ERA, 70-37, 2 All-Stars: When he’s on the mound, he’s been one of the best of this era. Unfortunately, his poor fitness has limited his workload and left him as a hall longshot. 10%

Paul Hujimoto – SF (35, 5) 1318 IP, 923 K, .250 OAV, 1.28 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, 87-55, 2 All-Stars: He’s been consistently good every year, but never great. So he will likely lack the longevity that would make him a serious candidate. 5%

Felipe Tejada – ARI (35, 7) 1375 IP, 1071 K, .241 OAV, 1.21 WHIP, 3.23 ERA, 97-51, 2 All-Stars, 1 Silver Slugger, 1 Cy Young: Tied for 2nd in career wins, he has been one of the best starters. His Season 2 performance might have been the best single season by a pitcher to this point. With a few more seasons left to add to his resume, he has a pretty good shot. 40%

Darren Chance – CHI-Sox/PHI (35,8) 1277 IP, 1236 K, .228 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.95 ERA, 90-52, 4 All-Stars, 2 Cy Youngs: The world leader in career ERA has been the most consistent top performer among starting pitchers. With 2 Cys already and more productive seasons ahead, he is the surest bet among starters headed to the Hall. 80%

Bernie Delgado – ARI (35, 7) 1123 IP, 800 K, .248 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.60 WHIP, 69-50: He’s been a good but not great pitcher. 0%

Patrick Rivera – KC/NYY (34, 6) 1304 IP, 1281 K, .249 OAV, 1.24 WHIP, 3.68 ERA, 97-49, 4 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: Having a Cy on the mantle elevates your status, but like Tejada, he still needs to do more to earn his place. 40%

Stephen Fischer – KC (31, 5) 1113 IP, 883 K, .260 OAV, 1.31 WHIP, 3.93 ERA, 81-47, 2 All-Stars, 1 Cy Young: A Cy is always impressive, but unfortunately he’s been a frequent DL visitor and has had the consistency of Bret Saberhagen. He is only 31, so he has time, but it seems unlikely. 10%

Relief Pitchers:
Earl Patterson – LA/DET (38, 13) 403 IP, 334 K, .247 OAV, 1.22 WHIP, 3.21 ERA, 19-24, 131/153 Saves, 2 All-Stars: He’s been a very effective closer for Detroit for the past 4 seasons. At 38, time is running out and we have just not seen enough. 0%

Wes Roosevelt – KC (36, 10) 925 IP, 782 K, .240 OAV, 1.16 WHIP, 2.96 ERA, 56-39, 42/71 Saves: One of the best setup men in the business. He has been a bullpen workhorse logging a couple of innings almost every night. Wins and saves are stats that garner glory for pitchers and he is not able to collect much of either making him a fringe candidate at best. 5%

Vic Castillo – KC/NYY (36, 7) 265 IP, 209 K, .201 OAV, 0.92 WHIP, 1.49 ERA, 1-5, 248/261 Saves, 6 All-Stars, 3 Fireman: The most effective one-inning closer in the game. His annual stat lines look like Eckersley’s best and he is the all-time leader in saves and save percentage. He has been too good to ignore. 85%

Jorge Guapo – WAS/HOU/TEX (35, 6) 314 IP, 275 K, .263 OAV, 1.25 WHIP, 3.81 ERA, 12-19, 177/203 Saves, 3 All-Stars: He’s been a good closer, but the hall is for great players. 0%

Pedro Cabrera – BAL/STL (34,7) 267 IP, 193 K, .215 OAV, 1.18 WHIP, 2.80 ERA, 4-12, 230/256 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s been a bit of a lesser version of Castillo. He still has some time to amass an impressive save total, but his entry is a bit less certain. 35%

Andres Alcantara – DET/HOU/CIN (34, 6) 444 IP, 394 K, .250 OAV, 1.27 WHIP, 3.42 ERA, 14-25, 207/248 Saves, 4 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s another good, but not great closer. 0%

Victor Lima – DET/FLA/SF (33, 5) 717 IP, 681 K, .222 OAV, 1.05 WHIP, 2.50 ERA, 51-25, 56/66 Saves, 2 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: He’s one of the best pitchers in the game. It’s tough to garner hall attention in the middle relief role he has mostly occupied until this season. If he continues to close and sticks around until he’s sniffing 40, he should have the credentials. 40%

Carlos Solano – LA/FLA (31, 6) 317 IP, 293 K, .212 OAV, 1.10 WHIP, 2.98 ERA, 6-21, 247/275 Saves, 5 All-Stars, 1 Fireman: The #2 man in career saves, he will likely retire as the all-time leader with a very impressive total. A Hall plaque seems likely in his future. 60%

Season #6 - Final Analysis

2009-03-23T13:42:00.000-07:00

After completing my first season in which I attempted to use my personally crafted player comparison formulas to predict the results for the season, I would have to say it was pretty darn successful. My offense and pitching predictions were generally pretty close and I would have to say that a great deal of the results variance was due to park factor, which I did not attempt to adjust for.
The variance of the NL rankings from the actuals was 20%, while the variance of the offense and pitching results was 24.4%. The AL was a little better as the AL rankings variance was only 15% and the offense/pitching variance was 15.8%. So overall, I scored a solid B, which was better than I expected.

NL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (3)
2. Chicago Cubs (7)
3. Montreal Expos (4)
4. Washington DC Nationals (2)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (5)
6. San Francisco Giants (1)
7. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
8. New York Mets (9)
9. San Diego Padres (12)
10. Cincinnati Reds (6)
11. Milwaukee Brewers (16)
12. Atlanta Braves (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)
14. Florida Marlins (11)
15. Pittsburgh Pirates (10)
16. Houston Astros (15)

The only big surprises for me here were the disappointing seasons in Chicago and St. Louis and the dominating season in Frisco.

NL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (5)
2. Montreal Expos (4)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (13)
4. Washington DC Nationals (1)
5. Chicago Cubs (7)
6. San Francisco (2)
7. Milwaukee Brewers (10)
8. San Diego Padres (15)
9. Cincinnati Reds (6)
10. Arizona Diamondbacks (3)
11. New York Mets (14)
12. Pittsburgh Pirates (8)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (16)
14. Atlanta Braves (12)
15. Houston Astros (9)
16. Florida Marlins (11)

NL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (7)
2. Chicago Cubs (10)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (9)
4. Montreal Expos (8)
5. New York Mets (3)
6. Washington DC Nationals (4)
7. San Francisco Giants (1)
8. St. Louis Cardinals (5)
9. San Diego Padres (6)
10. Atlanta Braves (2)
11. Florida Marlins (11)
12. Cincinnati Reds (13)
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (12)
14. Pittsburgh Pirates (14)
15. Milwaukee Brewers (15)
16. Houston Astros (16)

AL Rankings Predictions (Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (2)
3. Charlotte Knights (5)
4. Anaheim Angels (6)
5. Minnesota Twins (10)
6. Portland Beavers (7)
7. Oakland Athletics (3)
8. Cleveland Indians (12)
9. Boston Red Sox (11)
10. Toronto Blue Jays (9)
11. Detroit Tigers (4)
12. Seattle Mariners (8)
13. Baltimore Orioles (14)
14. Kansas City Royals (15)
15. Chicago White Sox (13)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)

The biggest misses here were in Minnesota, which likely finished further down due to mid-season trades, and Detroit, who mostly surprised on the mound.

AL Offense Predictions (Runs Scored Actual)
1. New York Yankees (2)
2. Texas Rangers (1)
3. Portland Beavers (4)
4. Charlotte Knights (3)
5. Minnesota Twins (9)
6. Anaheim Angels (8)
7. Oakland Athletics (5)
8. Cleveland Indians (7)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (6)
10. Detroit Tigers (10)
11. Baltimore Orioles (12)
12. Seattle Mariners (14)
13. Boston Red Sox (11)
14. Chicago White Sox (13)
15. Kansas City Royals (15)
16. Tampa Bay Rays (16)

AL Pitching Predictions (Runs Against Actual)
1. New York Yankees (1)
2. Texas Rangers (5)
3. Anaheim Angels (2)
4. Boston Red Sox (9)
5. Charlotte Knights (4)
6. Kansas City Royals (14)
7. Minnesota Twins (12)
8. Oakland Athletics (8)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (10)
10. Cleveland Indians (13)
11. Detroit Tigers (3)
12. Seattle Mariners (6)
13. Portland Beavers (7)
14. Baltimore Orioles (15)
15. Tampa Bay Rays (16)
16. Chicago White Sox (11)

All-Star Facts & Figures

2009-03-04T10:51:00.000-08:00

After 6 seasons, we have 6 seasons worth of All-Stars but only 5 games played since the game did not take place in Season 1. After 5 games, the NL currently holds a 3-2 lead, winning the last three in a row. Here are the game's MVPs:
2. Valerio Guillen, Boston
3. Jose Pichardo, Tampa Bay
4. Gordon Scanlan, San Diego
5. Benji Palmer, New York Mets
6. Pascual Martin, Arizona

We also have 5 seasons worth of home run derbys with champions as follows:
2. Danny Alexander, Kansas City
3. Del Wilhelm, Philadelphia
4. Dan Guerrero, Atlanta
5. Jolbert Romero, San Francisco
6. Kevin Marte, Montreal

With 6 seasons of All-Star selections, we have 360 spots between both leagues. Taking these spots are 127 one-time picks, 36 two-timers, 26 three-timers, 13 four-timers, 5 five-timers, and Vic Castillo (KC/NYY) as the lone six-time pick.

Four Timers: Patrick Rivera - KC, Darren Chance - ChiSox/Philly, Haywood Charles - Anaheim, Pedro Cabrera - St. Louis, Ryan Hamelin - SF, Andres Alcantara - Cinci/Detroit, James Hutton - Seattle, Willie Johnson - Detroit, Bernard Springer - Montreal, Alexander Myers - Toronto/NYY, Jose Pichardo - TB/Philly, Danny Alexander - KC, Del Wilhelm - Philly

Five Timers: B.C. Javier - Charlotte, Carlos Solano - LA/Florida, Hector Joseph - KC, Jake Clapp - Milwaukee/Philly/SF, Jeff Bollea - Boston/Texas

All-Stars for the Most Teams - Jake Clapp 5 games for 3 teams (Milwaukee/Philly/SF) and Hayes Swann 3 games for 3 teams (Baltimore/Florida/DC)

Teams with the Most All-Stars: Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati with 26

Team with the Least All-Stars: Ossie Flynn this season became the first and only All-Star for Oakland. Four teams are next tied with 5 selections.

Season #6 Mid-Season Analysis

2009-02-25T17:10:00.000-08:00

The All-Star break seems like a perfect time to look back at my preseason analysis and see how things have panned out. Overall, I don’t think my formulas are turning out too bad. (Playoff teams in bold, if season were over now)

NL North Predictions
1. Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
2. Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
3. Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
4. Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15

NL North Mid-Season
1. Cincinnati Reds: 53-38, NL #4, RS #5, RA #11
2. Montreal Expos: 51-40, NL #5, RS #6, RA #9
3. Chicago Cubs: 47-44, NL #7, RS #7, RA #8
4. Milwaukee Brewers: 34-57, NL #15, RS #8, RA #16

The Reds stormed out of the gate and have been the surprise to team in the division. Unfortunately, they have fallen a bit back to earth and are still vulnerable to the Expos and Cubs. (I know, meh) The Cubs and Expos have performed below expectations to this point but are still in striking distance. As expected, the Brewers have been a non-factor in the playoff race.

NL East Predictions
1. Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
2. Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14

NL East Mid-Season
1. Washington D.C. Nationals: 63-28, NL #2, RS #1, RA #4
2. Philadelphia Phillies: 58-33, NL #3, RS #4, RA #2
3. New York Mets: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #14, RA #5
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #9, RA #14

The Nationals and Phillies have been pretty close to what was expected from them. The Nationals have gotten a big boost from the MVP-like first half of Hayes Swann and his unfortunate injury may knock them down a peg. The Mets young pitching looks to be as good as expected so if this team can find some bats in future seasons, they can start playing in October. The Pirates have won quite a few close games and have kept their record more respectable than expected, despite their dreadful pitching.

NL South Predictions
1. St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
2. Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
3. Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
4. Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16

NL South Mid-Season
1. Florida Marlins: 44-47, NL #8, RS #10, RA #7
2. St. Louis Cardinals: 42-49, NL #9T, RS #11, RA #6
3. Atlanta Braves: 37-54, NL #14, RS #16, RA #3
4. Houston Astros: 33-58, NL #16, RS #12, RA #15

The NL South remains the weakest division in all of Kinsella, with the under .500 Marlins leading the way with middle of the pack offense and pitching. The Cardinals have been major underachievers at the plate and could still run away with the division if the bats start performing as expected. The Braves have been the most out of balance team in the league as their abysmal offense has consisted of home runs or nothing. (And I guess I was wrong with my previous comment believing that the Braves offense would be better than their ranking suggested.) Their pitchers must be getting very frustrated with their brilliance this season not being supported. The Astros were expected to be at the bottom and have not disappointed.

NL West Predictions
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
2. San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
3. San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
4. Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13

NL West Mid-Season
1. San Francisco Giants: 66-25, NL #1, RS #2, RA #1
2. Arizona Diamondbacks: 50-41, NL #6, RS #3, RA #10
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 41-50, NL #11T, RS #13, RA #13
4. San Diego Padres: 38-53, NL #13, RS #15, RA #12

The Giants are smoking hot and are excelling at every aspect of the game. With a 16 game lead at the break, it sure seems as if their 2nd NL West banner will be going up soon. The D’backs have been very surprising as their ratings indicated they would have a middle of the pack offense and dominant pitching, but reality has shown almost the complete opposite. They are still in great shape for a wild card run, especially if their pitching gets on track. I thought it was pretty funny when I saw that I had the Dodgers hitting and pitching both ranked #13 and now they are #13 in runs scored and runs against. The Padres are having a horrific season at the plate and can almost count themselves out as a result.

AL North Predictions
1. Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
2. Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
3. Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
4. Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16

AL North Mid-Season
1. Detroit Tigers: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #9, RA #6
2. Minnesota Twins: 44-47, AL #9, RS #4, RA #11
3. Toronto Blue Jays: 41-50, AL #12, RS #8, RA #15
4. Chicago White Sox: 39-52, AL #13T, RS #14, RA #13

The Tigers have exceeded expectations this season, but just can’t seem to pull away in the AL’s weakest division. The Minnesota Twins seem to annually fall short of my expectations for them, yet still remain in striking distance of another division title. The Blue Jays offense has been decent, but the pitching has been horrid with rookie Sidney Wells as the only bright spot. The White Sox have been much better this season as they can eclipse last season’s win total very soon.

AL East Predictions
1. New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
2. Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
3. Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
4. Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14

AL East Mid-Season
1. New York Yankees: 56-35, AL #2, RS #2, RA #2
2. Boston Red Sox: 48-43, AL #6T, RS #12, RA #7
3. Cleveland Indians: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #7, RA #10
4. Baltimore Orioles: 35-56, AL #15, RS #10, RA #16

The Yankees have been pretty close to their predicted results and it’s only their poor luck in 1-run games (8-15) that is keeping them from putting away the division. The Red Sox are in the thick of the wild card race and have performed pretty close to expectations. Meanwhile the Indians have also performed very close to their expectations, but unfortunately it hasn’t resulted in similar numbers in the W-L columns. Not surprisingly, the Orioles are pretty much done.

AL South Predictions
1. Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
2. Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
3. Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
4. Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15

AL South Mid-Season
1. Texas Rangers: 61-30, AL #1, RS #1, RA #8
2. Charlotte Knights: 46-45, AL #8, RS #5, RA #9
3. Kansas City Royals: 39-52, AL #14T, RS #15, RA #12
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 23-68, AL #16, RS #16, RA #14

The Rangers have been every bit as good as expected with a very scary team of young sluggers. The Knights have only been slightly below expectations for offense and pitching performance, but their record has them in the middle of the pack. I expect a better W-L record in the 2nd half that will see them challenge for a wild card. The Royals and Rays are both relatively devoid of ML talent and have a few seasons of rebuilding ahead.

AL West Predictions
1. Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
2. Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
3. Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
4. Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12

AL West Mid-Season
1T. Seattle Mariners: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #13, RA #1
1T. Oakland Athletics: 51-40, AL #3T, RS #6, RA #5
3. Portland Beavers: 50-41, AL #5, RS #3, RA #4
4. Anaheim Angels: 42-49, AL #10T, RS #11, RA #3

The Mariners pitching has been spectacular and has carried their weak offense and made them the division’s surprise team. Oakland and Portland have had more balanced attacks this season and neither is that much of a surprise to be in the thick of the playoff race. In the tight three-team struggle, Portland has to be the favorites to take it down and it will be interesting to see if Seattle’s weak offense will allow them to stay in the race. The most disappointing team of the season would have to be the AL’s winningest franchise, the Anaheim Angels. Their pitching has been great as expected but their offense has been nothing but Travis Murphy, who is having a spectacular season.

Season 6 Power Rankings Poll #1 Results

2009-02-25T17:05:00.000-08:00

1. Texas Rangers - 20 votes out of 20 participants
2t. San Francisco Giants - 18
2t. Washington DC Nationals - 18
4. New York Yankees - 15
5. Cincinnati Reds - 11
6t. Philadelphia Phillies - 4
6t. Portland Beavers - 4
8t. Arizona Diamondbacks - 2
8t. Detroit Tigers - 2
8t. Montreal Expos - 2
11t. Boston Red Sox - 1
11t. Charlotte Knights - 1
11t. Seattle Mariners - 1

Season 6 ALCS Poll Results

2009-02-05T12:28:00.000-08:00

The 22 responders to this poll seem to believe that we will be seeing a World Series rematch as the defending champion Yankees were the big vote leaders with 15. Here are the results:
1. New York Yankees - 15 votes
2. Charlotte Knights, Portland Beavers, Texas Rangers - 5
5. Anaheim Angels - 4
6. Boston Red Sox - 3
7. Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays -1

Season 6 NLCS Poll Results

2009-01-28T12:40:00.000-08:00

Our poll of league members on their picks for the NLCS had 24 responses and resulted in some clear favorites with 75% of the votes picking the Phillies to make their 5th NLCS. Here are the results:
1. Philadelphia Phillies - 18 votes
2. Arizona Diamondbacks - 10
3. Montreal Expos - 6
4. Chicago Cubs - 4
5. Florida Marlins, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals - 2
8. Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres - 1

Season 6 Preview

2009-01-20T16:38:00.000-08:00

These were compiled utilizing hitting and pitching formulas that I have been developing over the course of my HBD career and that I use each season to expedite my amateur draft ranking. They are completely based off of the current ML rosters as I have no idea who is going to be brought up 20+ days into the season. I am not going to reveal any of the actual formulas or the numbers obtained but merely the rankings relative to league. With the hitting results, I definitely see room for some improvement as there is no accounting for order in the lineup as the top of the order is going to see more plate appearances, so a top heavy lineup, like Atlanta, is going to score more poorly with my current system than they will probably perform. For deriving the pitching rankings, I used a projected rotation and the top three relief pitchers. I only used three relief pitchers as I believed that the vast majority of games in which the bullpen can help the team win will be determined by those 3 best where as the rest are merely innings eaters.

Playoff Teams in Bold

NL North
Chicago Cubs: NL #2, Hit #5, Pitch #2
Montreal Expos: NL #3, Hit #2, Pitch #4
Cincinnati Reds: NL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #12
Milwaukee Brewers: NL #11, Hit #7, Pitch #15

The Cubbies look very improved at the plate and with their terrific pitching staff are the favorites to dethrone the Expos. The Expos are a well-balanced team and will be fighting with the Cubs down to the wire for the division and a first round bye. The Reds slide at the end of last season looks to continue into this season as the team got weaker this offseason. The Brewers have a shot to get out of the cellar this season provided their weak pitching can hold some of the leads that their decent offense is going to give them.

NL East
Philadelphia Phillies: NL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #3
Washington DC Nationals: NL #4, Hit #4, Pitch #6
New York Mets: NL #8, Hit #11, Pitch #5
Pittsburgh Pirates: NL #15, Hit #12, Pitch #14

The 2-time defending NL Champs are once again this season’s NL favorite with the league’s most potent offense and one of the best pitching staffs. The Nationals have the talent to again take the division title if the Phillies falter with their nicely balanced team. The Mets seem to be right on the verge of breaking through into the NL playoffs as their pitching staff is definitely ready for prime time. The Pirates appear to be headed for a long season with little to look forward to as the team has a few stars surrounded by mediocre ML players.

NL South
St. Louis Cardinals: NL #7, Hit #3, Pitch #8
Atlanta Braves: NL #12, Hit #14, Pitch #10
Florida Marlins: NL #14, Hit #16, Pitch #11
Houston Astros: NL #16, Hit #15, Pitch #16

The St. Louis Cardinals appear to have the talent needed to breakthrough with their first ever playoff appearance in by far the weakest division in all of Kinsella. The Big Three Sluggers in Atlanta have their work cut out for them as the rest of the lineup offers very little support and the Braves pitching staff is middle of the pack. The Marlins offense is abysmal and the Marlin pitching is not good enough to win many games without good run support. The Astros remodeling project is still in progress as previous management left a lot of holes in this organization that require filling.

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: NL #5, Hit #10, Pitch #1
San Francisco Giants: NL #6, Hit #6, Pitch #7
San Diego Padres: NL #9, Hit #8, Pitch #9
Los Angeles Dodgers: NL #13, Hit #13, Pitch #13

The Diamondbacks are the favorites to regain their hold on the division with the strongest pitching staff in the NL. The Giants will be hanging right with them all season long with their more balanced team. The Padres will not be far behind as the NL West looks to remain one of the most competitive in the league. The Dodgers, once again under new management, have yet to retain an ownership group long enough to develop and implement any kind of long term plan. Hopefully, the current ownership will finally be able to bring stability to the franchise.

AL North
Minnesota Twins: AL #5, Hit #5, Pitch #7
Toronto Blue Jays: AL #10, Hit #9, Pitch #9
Detroit Tigers: AL #11, Hit #10, Pitch #11
Chicago White Sox: AL #15, Hit #14, Pitch #16

The Twins are big favorites to retain their hold on the AL North with good hitting and pitching that should allow them to win by a much larger margin than last season. The Blue Jays have some good young pieces, but have not quite worked themselves into a winning team just yet. The Tigers look like they will be taking a step back after last season’s near miss as both their hitting and pitching are in the lower half of the league. The White Sox should win a few more games this time, but it seems impossible for them to be any worse.

AL East
New York Yankees: AL #1, Hit #1, Pitch #1
Cleveland Indians: AL #8, Hit #8, Pitch #10
Boston Red Sox: AL #9, Hit #13, Pitch #4
Baltimore Orioles: AL #13, Hit #11, Pitch #14

The defending World Series Champs return everyone who contributed to last season’s title run and their active offseason makes them heavy favorites to repeat as AL East champs. The Tribe has been slowly developing a good young franchise and with a few veteran acquisitions look like they will be competing for a wild card. The Red Sox have a much-improved pitching staff that should be one of the better groups in the league and will also help them to be active in the wild card chase. The Orioles, with their very active trading over the past few seasons, seem to have gotten themselves back where they started, at the bottom of the AL East.

AL South
Texas Rangers: AL #2, Hit #2, Pitch #2
Charlotte Knights: AL #3, Hit #4, Pitch #6
Kansas City Royals: AL #14, Hit #15, Pitch #5
Tampa Bay Rays: AL #16, Hit #16, Pitch #15

The Rangers have assembled one of the strongest teams in the AL and are a good bet to take their first AL South title and a first round bye. The Knights will be right on their heels all season as they look to make what would surprisingly be (considering how good they have been every season) only their 2nd playoff appearance. The Royals have entered rebuilding mode and have very little scoring ability, which will not please their pitchers who are actually still one of the better staffs, despite the loss of Rivera. The Rays complete overhaul is still a work in progress as the only team they will compete with is Chicago for AL worst.

AL West
Anaheim Angels: AL #4, Hit #6, Pitch #3
Portland Beavers: AL #6, Hit #3, Pitch #13
Oakland Athletics: AL #7, Hit #7, Pitch #8
Seattle Mariners: AL #12, Hit #12, Pitch #12

The Angels' offense has weakened a bit since last season but the impressive pitching staff make a return to the AL West penthouse seem likely after the two season hiatus. The Beaver pitching staff have always statistically been huge beneficiaries of PGE park, but it is definitely the offense that is going to drive this team to another playoff berth. The Oakland Athletics were one of last season’s more improved teams who appear very close to earning a playoff spot and look to be serious challengers for the 2nd wild card. Unfortunately, the Mariners appear to be mired in mediocrity this season as neither the offense nor pitching appear to be anything more than below average units.

Season 5 Playoff Preview - Division Play-In Series

2008-12-22T22:36:00.000-08:00

AL

#4 Minnesota Twins (81-81) vs. #5 Anaheim Angels (97-65)

Head to Head Results: Games 6-4 Anaheim, Runs 68-46 Anaheim

Starters:
Minnesota -
#1 Rico Herrera 12-12, 3.96 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
#2 Abraham Bradford 7-2, 3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
#3 Branch Vitiello 12-7, 3.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Anaheim -
#1 Haywood Charles 17-13, 4.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
#2 Fernando Dotel 16-6, 3.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
#3 Ernest Becker 10-8, 4.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Top Hitters:
Minnesota -
Valerio Guillien 34 HR, 99 RBI, .893 OPS
Sam Kubinski 39 HR, 96 RBI, .866 OPS
Lance Corrino 28 HR, 94 RBI, .801 OPS
Anaheim -
Darryl Whitaker 41 HR, 97 RBI, .313 BA, 1.011 OPS
Arthur Boggs 29 HR, 89 RBI, .316 BA, .925 OPS
Travis Murphy 45 HR, 121 RBI, .922 OPS

#3 Kansas City Royals (94-68) vs. #6 Texas Rangers (93-69)

Head to Head Results: Games Tied 5-5, Runs 58-39 Texas

Starters:
Kansas City -
#1 Patrick Rivera 16-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
#2 Stephen Fischer 17-7, 3.94 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
#3 Damaso Palacios 15-12, 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Texas -
#1 Jeff Bollea 18-5, 3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
#2 Homer Flanagan 13-4, 3.07 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
#3 Davey Molina 13-11, 3.98 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Top Hitters:
Kansas City -
Danny Alexander 46 HR, 120 RBI, .907 OPS
Al Perez 46 HR 121 RBI, .903 OPS
Hector Joseph 111 Runs, 55 SB, .856 OPS
Texas -
Juan Marrero 58 G, 19 HR, 47 RBI, .982 OPS
Henry Shuey 57 G, 21 HR, 54 RBI, .973 OPS (AL stats)
Tony Contreras 102 Runs, 53 SB, .312 BA, .400 OBP

NL

#4 Atlanta Braves (78-84) vs. #5 Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)

Head to Head Results: Games 6-4 Philadelphia, Runs 58-56 Philadelphia

Starters:
Atlanta -
#1 Tris Breen 14-9, 3.27 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
#2 Alejandro Vazquez 11-11, 2.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
#3 Rafael Cortes 7-8, 3.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Philadelphia -
#1 Darren Chance 17-7, 2.04 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
#2 Perry Harvey 11-12, 3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
#3 Frank Feng 9-4, 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Top Hitters:
Atlanta -
Dee Dee Hutton 49 HR, 137 RBI, .969 OPS
Eric Roosevelt 35 HR, 106 RBI, .892 OPS
Dan Guerrero 33 HR, 101 RBI, 22 SB
Philadelphia -
Pedro Garrido 46 HR, 127 RBI, .318 BA, 1.032 OPS
Frank Jorgensen 46 HR, 105 RBI, .983 OPS
Del Whilhelm 129 Runs, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 40 SB, .965 OPS
Jose Pichardo 37 HR, 101 RBI, 29 SB, .325 BA, .945 OPS

#3 San Francisco Giants (90-72) vs. #6 Chicago Cubs (89-73)

Head to Head Results: Games 6-4 Chicago, Runs 48-44 Chicago

Starters:
San Francisco -
#1 Carlos Trinidad 15-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
#2 Zach Millwood 12-12, 3.78 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
#3 Wilton Stark 9-8, 4.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Chicago -
#1 Victor Torres 11-9, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
#2 Guy Kirk 10-10, 2.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
#3 Carter Kennedy 10-8, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Top Hitters:
San Francisco -
Jolbert Romero 36 HR, 89 RBI, .317 BA, 1.023 OPS
Jake Clapp 38 HR, 126 RBI, 29 SB, .905 OPS
Cristobal Marquez 24 HR, 98 RBI, .852 OPS
Chicago -
Julio Martin 36 HR, 95 RBI, .928 OPS
Tony Masao 47 HR, 108 RBI, .840 OPS

Season 5 Power Rankings - 4th Edition

2008-12-18T15:12:00.000-08:00

1. (2) Portland Beavers, 95-54, Past Weeks 34-14: The Beavers are close to locking up division title #2 and the #1 playoff seed. The Beavers are a deep, talented team but lack any marquee star that is typically found on championship teams.

2. (9) Philadelphia Phillies, 87-62, Past Weeks 33-15: The Phillies have returned to championship form as all the pieces seem to be lining up at the right time. With two aces in Chance and Harvey, this team is going to be a tough playoff opponent.

3. (5) Anaheim Angels, 88-61, Past Weeks 32-16: The Angels have played great but still find themselves losing ground. Dotel and Charles do a lot in making this team the toughest first round opponent in either league.

4. (7) Washington DC Nationals, 87-62, Past Weeks 31-17: With Marquez pitching brilliantly and Swann’s bat having come alive, the Nats are staying with the Phils and will be a tough team to face in the playoffs.

5. (13) New York Yankees, 86-63, 67-54, Past Weeks 33-15: The Yankees have been playing great ball which has led to their clinching their 2nd division title and having the lead for the #2 playoff seed. The arrivals of Ozzie Percival, Raul Lee, and Marco Harper have given the pitching a major boost.

6. (1) Montreal Expos, 85-64, Past Weeks 26-22: Marte seems to be a lock for this season’s MVP with his gaudy batting average along with big-time power numbers, but Montreal is anything but a lock for the division. The fight with the Reds looks like it may be decided on the final day.

7. (6) Kansas City Royals, 85-64, Past Weeks 28-20: Danny Alexander’s big bat continues to provide the biggest boost to this team as they now sit tied for the division.

8. (3) Charlotte Knights, 85-64, Past Weeks 25-23: A poor showing in divisional play has opened up the AL South race as the Royals and Rangers are right on their heels.

9. (17) San Francisco Giants, 84-65, Past Weeks 31-17: With homerun contest winner Jolbert Romero leading the offense despite showing signs of fatigue, the Giants have stood large of late and are on the verge of their first division title.

10. (8) Cincinnati Reds, 85-64, Past Weeks 28-20: Great pitching and big time slugging have the Reds tied with the Expos. Unfortunately, their bullpen weaknesses may be their fatal flaw in both the regular season race and the playoffs.

11. (10) Texas Rangers, 84-65, Past Weeks 28-20: Free agency has been good to the Rangers as Cy Young candidate Jeff Bollea and speedster Tony Contreras are keeping them in the race. Right now they are on the outside as they sit 1 game back in both the division and the #2 wild card races.

12. (15) Seattle Mariners, 81-68, Past Weeks 27-21: The Mariners remain a solid team with excellent pitching, but they are going to need catch a big winning streak if they hope to continue into the postseason.

13. (11) Chicago Cubs, 81-68, Past Weeks 25-23: The Cubs need some masterful pitching during this final week as they stand 4 GB for the division and 2nd wild card with only 13 remaining, because their “anemic” offense just isn’t going to get it done.

14. (4) San Diego Padres, 80-69, Past Weeks 23-25: The Padre’s have slumped and Ralph Levine’s arrival could not pull them out of it. With 4 GB in the division and 13 left to play, the Padres need to pray for a miracle.

15. (14) Arizona Diamondbacks, 79-70, Past Weeks 25-23: The D’backs stranglehold on the NL West is almost over, thanks to an under achieving performance by one of the more talented pitching staffs.

16. (18) Oakland Athletics, 75-74, Past Weeks 22-26: The A’s are the last place team in baseball’s best division but there is a lot of good young talent on this team which gives the fans hope for next season.

17. (12) Detroit Tigers, 75-74, Past Weeks 21-27: Luckily for the Tigers, the Twins have played just as badly and are allowing the Tigers to limp their way to the division title. MVP candidate Damian Chen is having another outstanding season and is excited to play in his first postseason game.

18. (20) New York Mets, 74-75, Past Weeks 24-24: The Mets remain solid and with their well-stocked farm system have the look of a team on the verge for next season.

19. (21) Atlanta Braves, 73-76, Past Weeks 24-24: Despite their mediocre season, the Braves appear headed to repeat as division champs and give Dee Dee another shot at postseason glory.

20. (19) Minnesota Twins, 73-76, Past Weeks 22-26: Ever since the trading deadline passed, the Twins have had a hard time playing with any consistency and their bid for a 3rd division title is at risk.

21. (16) Los Angeles Dodgers, 71-78, Past Weeks 17-31: The Dodger pitching has remained solid but the Dodger bats have fallen silent and have led to the demise of their once promising season.

22. (23) Boston Red Sox, 69-80, Past Weeks 20-28: The Red Sox are a distant 2nd place and are going to need a lot of help on the pitching staff to compete next season.

23. (26) St. Louis Cardinals, 69-80, Past Weeks 24-24: The Cards put together a solid week that found them briefly leading the division. A big finale could still find this team in the postseason.

24. (22) Florida Marlins, 69-80, Past Weeks 20-28: The Marlins had their shot at this division and then sank back down. It appears that another sub .500 division title is not going to happen for them this season.

25. (24) Cleveland Indians, 67-82, Past Weeks 19-29: The Tribe faded fast after their brief stint atop the division. There is great hope for the future with some major prospects in their system.

26. (25) Pittsburgh Pirates, 66-83, Past Weeks 19-29: Redmond and Sherman need more help. We’ll see if the Bucs can find it next season.

27. (30) Baltimore Orioles, 62-87, Past Weeks 25-23: With a respectable week, the O’s climb a few spots and avoid the shame of a 100-loss season.

28. (28) Toronto Blue Jays, 62-87, Past Weeks 17-31: Humpty Dumpty fell off the wall this week in Toronto and by shipping out stud closer Marco Harper for youth, the hope is that he can be put together next season.

29. (27) Houston Astros, 58-91, Past Weeks 16-32: The Astros just couldn’t make it work enough to compete in the sad NL South, but good talent awaits in AAA and below that could lead to a change in their fortunes next season.

30. (29) Tampa Bay Rays, 57-92, Past Weeks 17-31: The Rays still have a shot at avoiding 100 losses, which would be a spectacular accomplishment for this stripped down ball club.

31. (30) Milwaukee Brewers, 51-98, Past Weeks 18-30: Lira, Shuey, and Parrish got to escape for greener pastures. Perhaps their replacements can make a difference next season.

47. (32) Chicago White Sox, 41-108, Past Weeks 14-34: This team would be a long shot for the AAA playoffs.

Season 5 Power Rankings - 3rd Edition

2008-12-01T12:01:00.000-08:00

1. (1) Montreal Expos, 59-42, Past Week 8-10: Marte is flirting with .400 and the offense continues to roll. An off week has put this team in the lead of a tight three-team race.

2. (5) Portland Beavers, 61-40, Past Week 13-5: The Beavers were impressive this week as they asserted themselves as the team to beat in the tough AL West.

3. (2) Charlotte Knights, 60-41, Past Week 9-9: A poor showing in divisional play has opened up the AL South race as the Royals and Rangers are right on their heels.

4. (6) San Diego Padres, 57-44, Past Week 9-9: The Padres have not been able to pull away from the others in the strong NL West. Perhaps new arrival Ralph Levine can be the difference maker for this team.

5. (3) Anaheim Angels, 56-45, Past Week 8-10: The Angels did not perform up to expectations this week and are now in danger of missing the playoffs entirely after last season’s ALCS appearance.

6. (11) Kansas City Royals, 57-44, Past Week 13-5: This week the Royals looked like the team that rolled through last season’s AL playoffs to the World Series and are again serious contenders.

7. (13) Washington DC Nationals, 56-45, Past Week 12-6: Estaban Marquez has benefited from the change of scenery and the entire team has gotten a charge from the big trade with NY. If Hayes Swann can figure out what ails him, the Nats will be hard to catch.

8. (7) Cincinnati Reds, 57-44, Past Week 10-8: The Reds gained some ground this week and their superb pitching, power hitting team is knocking on the Expos door.

9. (4) Philadelphia Phillies, 54-47, Past Week 7-11: It was a horrible week in Philly that saw the Phils lose their division lead. With Garrido off the DL, they must right the ship soon or the defending champs will be sitting out this postseason.

10. (16) Texas Rangers, 56-45, Past Week 13-5: The mix of veterans and youngsters are clicking right now for the Rangers and their dominating divisional play has them in a tight three-way AL South race.

11. (14) Chicago Cubs, 56-45, Past Week 10-8: Big time pitching keeps the Cubs in what is now a tight NL North race.

12. (18T) Detroit Tigers, 54-47, Past Week 13-5: The Tigers roared this week against their AL North rivals. This young and talented team appears ready to win their first division title.

13. (21) New York Yankees, 53-48, Past Week 12-6: Divisional play was just what the doctor ordered for the Yanks as they beat up on their rivals to regain the division lead.

14. (24) Arizona Diamondbacks, 54-47, Past Week 14-4: The D’backs found their pitching prowess and took advantage of divisional play with a terrific week to put themselves back in the hunt.

15. (10) Seattle Mariners, 54-47, Past Week 8-10: The Mariners pitching remains strong, but the offense is what makes them only the third best in the tough AL West.

16. (9) Los Angeles Dodgers, 54-47, Past Week 7-11: The Dodgers got roughed up by their division rivals as their lack of a consistent offense is hurting their chances.

17. (12) San Francisco Giants, 53-48, Past Week 8-10: With homerun contest winner Jolbert Romero leading the offense and showing signs of fatigue, can the Giants remain in contention?

18. (8) Oakland Athletics, 53-48, Past Week 5-13: This week, the A’s looked like a young team with the lowest payroll.

19. (18T) Minnesota Twins, 51-50, Past Week 10-8: The Twins lost a tough series with Detroit and have slipped into 2nd place.

20. (15) New York Mets, 50-51, Past Week 6-12: It seems the heat of the playoff race was too much for this young team as divisional play knocked them down a peg or two.

21. (22) Atlanta Braves, 49-52, Past Week 9-9: The Braves remain a disappointing team this season. The week was salvaged by a 4 game sweep of the rival Marlins.

22. (23) Florida Marlins, 49-52, Past Week 10-8: The Marlins week started strong, but then went south in divisional play.

23. (20) Boston Red Sox, 49-52, Past Week 8-10: The Red Sox put up another mediocre week but remain in the race with the weak AL East.

24. (17) Cleveland Indians, 48-53, Past Week 5-13: Divisional play has proved costly for the Tribe as they dropped like a rock from first to third in the AL East.

25. (25) Pittsburgh Pirates, 47-54, Past Week 9-9: With a .500 week, the Bucs are running out of time this season.

26. (28) St. Louis Cardinals, 45-56, Past Week 12-6: Their good week finds the Cards in the hunt for the division.

27. (26) Houston Astros, 42-59, Past Week 10-8: With a decent week, the Astros still remain within striking distance of the division title in the weak NL South.

28. (27) Toronto Blue Jays, 45-56, Past Week 10-8: If not for the poor showing against division leaders Detroit and Minnesota, the Jays would have climbed back in the race.

29. (31) Tampa Bay Rays, 40-61, Past Week 10-8: There is some pride in Tampa as the Rays have a respectable week.

30. (29) Baltimore Orioles, 37-64, Past Week 5-13: With Levine and Kapler shipped out, put a fork in them.

31. (30) Milwaukee Brewers, 33-68, Past Week 3-15: Mmmm...beer.

32. (32) Chicago White Sox, 27-74, Past Week 2-16: The scouts are furiously scouring the country to find the future #1 pick.